Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing a new wave of activity, with significant price increases in crude oil, copper, nickel, lithium, and agricultural products, indicating a potential "supercycle" revival [1][3] Group 1: Supercycle Core Logic - The "commodity supercycle" refers to a prolonged phase of rising commodity prices driven by global demand expansion, supply constraints, and liquidity easing [3] - Current market drivers include: - Global energy transition leading to increased demand for energy and related metals [3] - Geopolitical factors amplifying the security attributes of energy, food, and strategic resources [3] - Long-term supply constraints due to lengthy resource development cycles and stricter environmental policies [3] Group 2: Benefiting Industries Overview - Energy Sector: - Traditional energy (oil, natural gas) remains robust due to supply tightness and geopolitical tensions [6] - The renewable energy supply chain (solar, wind, storage, battery materials) is expanding rapidly amid the global energy transition [6] - Base Metals and Strategic Resources: - Metals like copper, aluminum, and nickel are in high demand due to their applications in renewable energy and infrastructure [6] - Critical resources such as rare earths and lithium are irreplaceable in electric vehicles and high-end manufacturing, showing long-term growth potential [6] - Agriculture and Food: - Climate change and geopolitical conflicts are increasing uncertainty in food supply, leading to higher agricultural product prices [6][7] - Related Equipment and Services: - Industries such as energy equipment manufacturing, resource exploration, shipping, and storage will benefit from the overall industry chain [8]

Policy Framework - China has established a comprehensive supply chain security policy system since 2012, covering both macro and industry-specific levels[2] - The government emphasizes self-control and efficiency in supply chains, with significant tax incentives for high-tech enterprises and support for digital transformation of SMEs[2] Economic Impact - In 2024, China's total import and export volume is projected to reach $6.16 trillion, maintaining its position as the world's largest trading nation[3] - China's manufacturing output accounts for 31.6% of global production, significantly surpassing the combined output of the second to fifth largest manufacturing countries[45] Supply Chain Dynamics - China's reliance on Europe and the U.S. has decreased, while deepening cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and forming a mutual dependency with ASEAN[3] - High-value industries still exhibit a pattern of strong assembly capabilities but weak core technologies, indicating a need for further development in high-end sectors[3] Strategic Initiatives - Short-term strategies focus on cost control, technological innovation, and market diversification to mitigate external shocks[3] - Long-term goals include building overseas supply chain networks and optimizing global industrial layouts to enhance resilience[3] Financial Support - The government has implemented various financial policies to support supply chain financing, including tailored financing strategies for SMEs[22] - In 2025, the central government's science and technology expenditure is planned to increase by 10% to approximately $63.5 billion, focusing on foundational research and strategic technology tasks[21]