Core Viewpoint - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced fluctuations downward, while international crude oil prices declined; industrial-related data showed mixed trends in prices and supply [3] Agricultural Products - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated upward, with international crude oil prices declining; agricultural product prices generally increased [4] - Specifically, Brent crude oil decreased by $1.62 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by $1.14 per barrel; average wholesale prices for vegetables rose by 0.09 yuan per kilogram, while pork and beef prices increased by 0.43 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kilogram, respectively, but lamb prices dropped by 0.19 yuan per kilogram [5] Industrial Data - Industrial-related data showed mixed trends: the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fluctuated downward, with glass prices slightly rising and coking coal prices declining [15] - Glass futures closed up by 8 yuan per ton, while coking coal futures fell by 16 yuan per ton; the blast furnace operating rate was recorded at 83.15%, slightly up from last week and higher than the historical average [15] Real Estate Investment - Investment-related data in real estate remained weak; land transaction area in 100 major cities increased to approximately 24.89 million square meters, while commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities rose to about 2.02 million square meters, still significantly below the historical average [24] - The index for second-hand housing listing prices declined, with the decrease rate increasing compared to the previous week; the cumulative value of completed housing area increased but remained below historical levels [24] Travel Consumption - Travel consumption data mostly increased, aligning with seasonal trends; subway passenger volumes in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose, with growth rates of 0.52%, 0.11%, 1.62%, and 1.22%, respectively [34] - Movie box office revenue slightly decreased, falling below the same period in 2024, 2023, and 2021; retail sales of passenger cars surged, exceeding historical levels, while the number of domestic flights executed slightly declined but remained above historical averages [34]

Group 1: Core Themes in New Consumption - The new consumption sector is accelerating around three main themes: "well-being," "technological transformation," and "travel consumption" [1] - Sub-sectors such as trendy toys, healthy eating, beauty economy, and AI+ consumption show structural growth potential [1] Group 2: Well-being Consumption - Trendy toys are experiencing a historical opportunity with global IP cross-regional penetration and category innovation, expected to see significant growth by 2025 [2] - The global market for trendy toys is expanding, with interactive features driving user engagement and product innovation [2] - Beneficiaries in this sector include Pop Mart, Blokus, and Huali Technology [2] Group 3: Healthy Eating and Efficiency - The Chinese meal replacement industry has grown from 5.8 billion yuan in 2017 to 132.2 billion yuan in 2022, with a projected CAGR of 21.7% from 2022 to 2027 [2] - Major brands like KFC and Nayuki are expanding into the healthy salad market, while beverage companies are launching popular fruit and vegetable products [2] - Beneficiaries include Mixue Group, Guming, Bawang Tea, and Luckin Coffee [2] Group 4: Beauty Economy - Online channels continue to show growth potential, particularly on platforms like Douyin [3] - The market share of domestic brands is expected to rise from 13.3% in 2022 to 19.9% by 2024 [3] - Key players benefiting from this trend include Juzhibio, Mao Geping, and Shangmei [3] Group 5: Travel Consumption - Post-pandemic travel is becoming a relatively essential low-frequency optional consumption, showing strong anti-cyclical resilience [4] - The travel sector is expected to maintain a growth rate of 7-8%, with ongoing recovery in inbound and outbound tourism [4] - Beneficiaries in this sector include Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel [4] Group 6: Technological Transformation - AI is driving a new marketing ecosystem, with significant growth in content creation and diverse application scenarios in beauty and beverage sectors [5] - The number of active creators on content platforms is expected to grow by 62% year-on-year by June 2024 [5] - Beneficiaries include Meitu, Youdao, Keri International, and Tongdao Recruitment [5] Group 7: Travel Consumption Expansion - Local life services are expanding, with Meituan and Didi entering the Brazilian food delivery market, valued at over 20 billion USD [6] - Chinese tea culture is spreading globally, with brands like Mixue Ice City and Bawang Tea entering markets in Europe and the Americas [6] - Key players in this expansion include Mixue Ice City and Bawang Tea [6]