广发证券 资深宏观分析师 贺骁束 hexiaoshu@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 摘要 第五， 光伏行业经理人指数回落，下游电站景气指数偏高。截至12月第四周，光伏经理人指数（SMI）录得 134.4点，环比回落5.2pct；下游电站、中上游制造业环比分别录得2.1、-12.6pct 。 第六， 地产销售延续弱势。12月1日-12月30日，全国30大中城市商品房日均成交面积同比回落31.3%（今 年11月同比-33.1%）。其中一、二、三线城市销售同比分别为-39.0%、-28.4%、-29.7%。根据广发地 产 组 整 理 克 尔 瑞 和 房 产 中 介 数 据 ， 12 月 前 28 日 80 城 二 手 房 中 介 认 购 同 比 -8.0% ， 11 城 二 手 房 网 签 同 比-26.8% 。 第七， 乘用车零售同比降幅扩大，基数影响进一步呈现。乘联会数据12月1日-28日乘用车零售同比回落 17%（前值-7%）；批发销量同比回落19%（前值2%）。新能源汽车零售同比增长5%（前值7%）。乘联 会表示"国家宏观经济持续向好，消费信心相对稳定，但由于部分地区的以旧换新和报废更新补贴政策大 ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 12 月 31 日 12 月高频数据跟踪 2025.12.25 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 摘要： 生产端看，开工率整体偏弱，工业品普遍去库，产能利用率略有降温。开 工率方面，12 月，247 家高炉开工率、电炉开工率分别为 78.88%、 60.10%，均低于上月。螺纹钢开工率、磨机开工率分别为 38.03%、 31.72%，均较上月回落；汽车全、半钢胎开工率出现降温，分别录得 63.42%、71.48%；化工品开工率普遍下降：PVC、PTA 开工率均值分别 为 78.73%、73.75%。石油沥青开工率为 28.65%，较上月抬升。水泥磨 机运转率环比下降，录得 31.72%。库存方面，沥青、螺纹钢、冷轧、热 卷、浮法玻璃普遍去库，环比增速分别为-3.77%、-10.26%、-4.73、- 6.82%；水泥库容比、发运率回落，环比分别为-6.31、-6.07%；浮法 ...

Industrial Sector - Steel and building materials production has rebounded, while the operating rate of float glass has decreased[2] - The apparent demand for steel building materials has increased, while the operating rate for the textile polyester sector has shown seasonal weakness[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have slightly declined this week[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 8.7 percentage points compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.98% week-on-week, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue increased by 74.7% year-on-year, with a daily average of 83.89 million yuan[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries has grown by 8.3% year-on-year, showing recovery in logistics[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, a decline of 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 7.4%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 2.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in shipping costs[2] Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.1% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends[2] - The industrial product prices weakened, with the South China industrial product index dropping by 1.9%[2]

Core Viewpoint - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced fluctuations downward, while international crude oil prices declined; industrial-related data showed mixed trends in prices and supply [3] Agricultural Products - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated upward, with international crude oil prices declining; agricultural product prices generally increased [4] - Specifically, Brent crude oil decreased by $1.62 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by $1.14 per barrel; average wholesale prices for vegetables rose by 0.09 yuan per kilogram, while pork and beef prices increased by 0.43 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kilogram, respectively, but lamb prices dropped by 0.19 yuan per kilogram [5] Industrial Data - Industrial-related data showed mixed trends: the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fluctuated downward, with glass prices slightly rising and coking coal prices declining [15] - Glass futures closed up by 8 yuan per ton, while coking coal futures fell by 16 yuan per ton; the blast furnace operating rate was recorded at 83.15%, slightly up from last week and higher than the historical average [15] Real Estate Investment - Investment-related data in real estate remained weak; land transaction area in 100 major cities increased to approximately 24.89 million square meters, while commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities rose to about 2.02 million square meters, still significantly below the historical average [24] - The index for second-hand housing listing prices declined, with the decrease rate increasing compared to the previous week; the cumulative value of completed housing area increased but remained below historical levels [24] Travel Consumption - Travel consumption data mostly increased, aligning with seasonal trends; subway passenger volumes in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose, with growth rates of 0.52%, 0.11%, 1.62%, and 1.22%, respectively [34] - Movie box office revenue slightly decreased, falling below the same period in 2024, 2023, and 2021; retail sales of passenger cars surged, exceeding historical levels, while the number of domestic flights executed slightly declined but remained above historical averages [34]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market has shown consistent weakening over the last four weeks, indicating a shift to a weaker position compared to previous reports [2] - There are notable weaknesses in higher income segments, which have historically driven significant consumer spending [2] Economic Reflections - The breakdown in higher income segments reflects ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and the impact of AI replacing certain jobs [3] - The labor market is transitioning from a period of robust job growth and record low unemployment, contributing to the current weaker situation [4] Data Collection and Analysis - Government data is still considered the gold standard, but it has been inadequate for corporate decision-makers and investors for decades [6] - The recent government shutdown has accelerated the adoption of alternative data sources, allowing for deeper market segmentation and analysis [7]

Production Side - In September, the average operating rate for electric furnaces and rebar steel was 61.70% and 42.21%, respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous month[3] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt improved significantly, reaching an average of 34.38%, up by 10.35 percentage points from last month and 32.34% year-on-year[3] - The capacity utilization rates for coking, glass, cement clinker, and cold-rolled steel improved, recorded at 79.49%, 78.21%, 52.22%, and 78.21% respectively[3] Demand Side - In September, the transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 4.92% month-on-month, while land transaction area in 100 cities rose by 26.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 66,930 units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.17%[4] - The average weekly box office revenue for movies dropped to 635 million yuan, a decrease of 59.61% month-on-month, but a significant year-on-year increase of 70.02%[4] Price Side - The PPI for copper and aluminum saw increases of 1.77% and 0.22% respectively, while rebar and diesel prices fell by 1.75% each[6] - The average price of cement was 342.72 yuan/ton, up by 1.06% month-on-month, but lower than the previous year's average[79] - The price of petroleum asphalt increased to 3,513.20 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 0.27%[81]

Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Group 1 - The key short-term factors affecting the pricing strategy of urban investment bonds include the administrative level of urban investment platforms, financing capabilities, market sentiment, and investment entities [1][2][8] - Specific meetings, such as the State Council executive meetings and the Central Political Bureau meetings, can introduce new policies that may impact local government actions and subsequently affect urban investment bond valuations [1][11][12] - The administrative level of urban investment platforms is crucial, as the relationship between local governments and provincial governments can significantly influence financing capabilities and support for local industries [2][13] Group 2 - Market sentiment is reflected in the subscription multiples and coupon rates of urban investment bonds in the primary market, indicating the credit recognition of the platform [2][15] - The financing ability of urban investment platforms is assessed based on their relationships with various banks, particularly policy banks and state-owned commercial banks, which can indicate their overall creditworthiness [2][14] - High-frequency data, such as the manufacturing PMI and project bidding amounts, are increasingly influencing short-term valuation pricing, providing real-time insights into macroeconomic conditions [3][17][19] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring various high-frequency indicators, including logistics indices and retail indices, to gauge the current economic state and its impact on urban investment bond pricing [3][19][23] - The analysis highlights that while high-frequency data can provide valuable insights, challenges exist in ensuring the effective transmission of these data points across the entire industry chain [3][24] - The report suggests constructing a robust high-frequency data indicator system to enhance the accuracy of short-term valuation assessments [3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Upstream prices are showing a divergence. Edible agricultural product prices continue to decline, while production material prices have rebounded in the last two weeks. The narrowing decline in production material prices is due to the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, and some key industrial raw material prices have significantly rebounded. The supply of edible agricultural products is sufficient, leading to a continued price decline and an expanding year - on - year decline [2]. - From August 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 174,000 square meters per day, compared with about 232,000 square meters per day in August 2024 [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - For food, the average wholesale price of pork in the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, decreased by 0.53% week - on - week and 21.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 4.80% week - on - week and decreased by 26.15% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week and 9.66% year - on - year [2]. - For energy, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 5.82% and 5.23% week - on - week respectively. Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.18% week - on - week [11]. - For non - ferrous metals, LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.60% and 0.15% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - to - gold ratio decreased by 2.57% week - on - week [11]. - For real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week, while the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 17.37% week - on - week [11]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, including the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [15][18] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report includes information on US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [86][82][85] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of the average daily crude steel production, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [93][99] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [143][144]