相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 58 ——哪些央企重资产、低淘汰 率（HALO）特征较为明显》 2026-03-02 2、《伊朗局势与特朗普的政治 押注———国际时政周评》 2026-03-01 3、《假期海外时政：特朗普大 规模关税违法、伊朗局势—— —国际时政周评》2026-02-22 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 显微镜下的中国经济（2026 年第 6 期） 频率：每周 节后第一周，投资相关高频数据整体表现不及去年同期水平，但过年期间居民 消费数据好于去年同期。 定期报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 节后第一周高频数据表现如何？ 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 开工率方面，节后开工率呈现环比改善局面，除了电炉开工率、螺纹钢、热 卷和浮法玻璃开工率环比下降，其余 7 个产品的开工率环比回升。但与去年 节后相比，只有全钢胎和半钢胎开工率好于去年同期相比，其余产品均弱于 去年同期。 产能利用率表现与节前一致，仍处于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers' Index (EPMI) for January 2026 increased by 0.9 points to 50.0, indicating stable mid-level economic conditions with three out of seven sub-industries in the expansion zone, consistent with seasonal trends observed in previous years [1][5][6]. Sub-item Summaries - **Production and Demand Indicators**: In January, production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 1.6, 1.5, and 1.0 points respectively. The production-to-demand ratio has risen for three consecutive months, suggesting positive demand expectations among emerging enterprises [2][10]. - **Price Signals**: Purchase prices and sales prices increased by 0.4 and 0.3 points respectively. The sales price index has been on an upward trend since July 2025, with only a brief decline in November 2025 [2][11]. - **Loan Difficulty Indicator**: The loan difficulty index rose by 0.4 points, marking a two-month recovery, potentially linked to liquidity conditions in early January [2][11]. Industry Analysis - **Leading Industries**: The biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and next-generation information technology sectors have maintained high levels of prosperity since October 2025. The biotechnology sector is driven by a surge in patent applications, while the new energy vehicle sector benefits from both domestic and export growth [3][13]. - **Weak Industries**: High-end equipment manufacturing, new materials, and energy conservation sectors have shown weaker performance, remaining in the contraction zone for three consecutive months [3][13]. Manufacturing PMI Expectations - Historical data suggests that the manufacturing PMI typically experiences slight declines in January during years with late Spring Festival dates. The impact of strong exports and concentrated fiscal policies in the previous quarter on January's production preparations remains to be observed [4][17]. Economic Data Overview - The high-frequency data for January appears stable, with strong port data and weak construction and real estate data. Hard data is expected to show decent year-on-year performance due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with results to be published in March [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries in China, highlighting the impact of the Lunar New Year timing on production and sales, as well as the mixed performance across different sectors. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - As of January 8, the cumulative power generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 2.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a decline of 8.5% in December [1][6] - The industrial operating rates show mixed trends, with steel production rates improving while chemical production rates decline. The average operating rate of 247 blast furnaces rose by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [7][8] - The average daily crude steel production from key enterprises increased by 11.8% month-on-month but decreased by 4.1% year-on-year as of January 10 [2][9] Group 2: Construction and Funding - The funding availability rate for construction sites decreased by 0.3 percentage points, indicating a lack of momentum in physical work [11] - The asphalt operating rate fell to 26.3%, down 2.1 percentage points month-on-month, reflecting a decline in construction activity [11][12] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Sales - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased by 15.8% year-on-year due to the Lunar New Year timing, indicating a slight recovery in consumer mobility [3][12] - Real estate sales showed a significant decline, with a 38.6% drop in daily average transactions in major cities compared to the same period last year [15] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell by 32% year-on-year, with wholesale volumes down by 40% [16] Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry manager index decreased to 133.0 points, reflecting a slight decline in industry sentiment [13] - The BPI index for industrial products reached a near one-year high, with significant price increases in coal and chemical products [22][23] - Port container throughput increased by 6.3% year-on-year, indicating resilience in logistics despite fluctuations in shipping volumes to the U.S. [18][20]

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a general decline in various industrial sectors, including power generation, steel production, real estate sales, and consumer goods, indicating a weakening economic environment as of December 2023. Group 1: Power Generation and Industrial Activity - Power generation from coal-fired plants has decreased by 8.5% year-on-year as of December 25, compared to a decline of 7.2% in November, reflecting weak demand during the off-peak season and the impact of a warm winter [1][7] - Industrial operating rates are also showing seasonal weakness, with most sectors, except for downstream automotive tire production, reporting lower year-on-year operating rates [1][7] Group 2: Steel Production - Key steel mills reported a daily average crude steel output decrease of 2.0% month-on-month and 5.1% year-on-year as of the third week of December [9] - By the fourth week of December, rebar production fell by 10.7% month-on-month and 16.4% year-on-year, while hot-rolled coil production decreased by 4.6% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year [9] Group 3: Construction and Infrastructure - There has been a marginal improvement in the funding availability rate for construction sites, with a 0.15 percentage point increase as of December 23 [11] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt has turned positive month-on-month, increasing by 0.83 percentage points, indicating a potential recovery in the construction sector [11] Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities from December 1 to 30 [15] - Retail sales of passenger cars have also decreased significantly, with a year-on-year drop of 17% from December 1 to 28, while wholesale sales fell by 19% [16] Group 5: Home Appliances and Consumer Goods - Sales of home appliances remain in negative growth territory, with online sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines declining by 48% to 29% year-on-year [17][18] - The production of home appliances is expected to turn positive in January 2024, although there may be disruptions due to the Spring Festival [17][20] Group 6: Port Activity and Trade - Port container throughput remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% from December 1 to 28, although the growth rate has slowed compared to November [20] - The number of container ships sent to the U.S. has seen a reduced year-on-year decline, indicating some stabilization in trade activities [20]

Production Side - In December, the operating rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 78.88% and 60.10%, respectively, both lower than the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 38.03%, and the grinding machine operating rate was 31.72%, both showing a decline from last month[3] - The average operating rates for PVC and PTA were 78.73% and 73.75%, respectively, indicating a general decrease in chemical product operating rates[3] - The inventory levels for asphalt, rebar, cold-rolled, hot-rolled, and float glass showed a decrease, with respective month-on-month growth rates of -3.77%, -10.26%, -4.73%, -6.82%[3] Demand Side - The average transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 22.48% month-on-month but decreased by 31.93% year-on-year[4] - The average transaction area for land in 100 cities increased by 93.96% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.50%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 61,883 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.18% and a year-on-year decline of 26.34%[4] - The average box office revenue for movies was 675 million yuan, down 7.67% month-on-month but up 45.47% year-on-year[4] Price Side - The wholesale price index for agricultural products increased by 3.32% month-on-month and 6.94% year-on-year, with notable increases in vegetable and fruit prices[5] - The price of gasoline and diesel saw year-on-year declines of 6.82% and 5.20%, respectively[6] - The price of copper and aluminum increased by 5.28% and 1.26% month-on-month, with year-on-year increases of 21.31% and 7.28%[6]

Industrial Sector - Steel and building materials production has rebounded, while the operating rate of float glass has decreased[2] - The apparent demand for steel building materials has increased, while the operating rate for the textile polyester sector has shown seasonal weakness[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have slightly declined this week[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 20.8% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 8.7 percentage points compared to last week[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.98% week-on-week, indicating a slight narrowing of the decline[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue increased by 74.7% year-on-year, with a daily average of 83.89 million yuan[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries has grown by 8.3% year-on-year, showing recovery in logistics[2] - Retail sales of major home appliances decreased by 34.6% year-on-year, a decline of 7.2 percentage points compared to the previous value[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.4% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 7.4%[2] - The export container freight index rose by 2.6% week-on-week, indicating a slight increase in shipping costs[2] Prices - The agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.1% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends[2] - The industrial product prices weakened, with the South China industrial product index dropping by 1.9%[2]

Core Viewpoint - This week, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index experienced fluctuations downward, while international crude oil prices declined; industrial-related data showed mixed trends in prices and supply [3] Agricultural Products - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fluctuated upward, with international crude oil prices declining; agricultural product prices generally increased [4] - Specifically, Brent crude oil decreased by $1.62 per barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by $1.14 per barrel; average wholesale prices for vegetables rose by 0.09 yuan per kilogram, while pork and beef prices increased by 0.43 yuan and 0.56 yuan per kilogram, respectively, but lamb prices dropped by 0.19 yuan per kilogram [5] Industrial Data - Industrial-related data showed mixed trends: the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fluctuated downward, with glass prices slightly rising and coking coal prices declining [15] - Glass futures closed up by 8 yuan per ton, while coking coal futures fell by 16 yuan per ton; the blast furnace operating rate was recorded at 83.15%, slightly up from last week and higher than the historical average [15] Real Estate Investment - Investment-related data in real estate remained weak; land transaction area in 100 major cities increased to approximately 24.89 million square meters, while commodity housing transaction area in 30 major cities rose to about 2.02 million square meters, still significantly below the historical average [24] - The index for second-hand housing listing prices declined, with the decrease rate increasing compared to the previous week; the cumulative value of completed housing area increased but remained below historical levels [24] Travel Consumption - Travel consumption data mostly increased, aligning with seasonal trends; subway passenger volumes in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose, with growth rates of 0.52%, 0.11%, 1.62%, and 1.22%, respectively [34] - Movie box office revenue slightly decreased, falling below the same period in 2024, 2023, and 2021; retail sales of passenger cars surged, exceeding historical levels, while the number of domestic flights executed slightly declined but remained above historical averages [34]

Labor Market Overview - The labor market has shown consistent weakening over the last four weeks, indicating a shift to a weaker position compared to previous reports [2] - There are notable weaknesses in higher income segments, which have historically driven significant consumer spending [2] Economic Reflections - The breakdown in higher income segments reflects ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and the impact of AI replacing certain jobs [3] - The labor market is transitioning from a period of robust job growth and record low unemployment, contributing to the current weaker situation [4] Data Collection and Analysis - Government data is still considered the gold standard, but it has been inadequate for corporate decision-makers and investors for decades [6] - The recent government shutdown has accelerated the adoption of alternative data sources, allowing for deeper market segmentation and analysis [7]

Production Side - In September, the average operating rate for electric furnaces and rebar steel was 61.70% and 42.21%, respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous month[3] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt improved significantly, reaching an average of 34.38%, up by 10.35 percentage points from last month and 32.34% year-on-year[3] - The capacity utilization rates for coking, glass, cement clinker, and cold-rolled steel improved, recorded at 79.49%, 78.21%, 52.22%, and 78.21% respectively[3] Demand Side - In September, the transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 4.92% month-on-month, while land transaction area in 100 cities rose by 26.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 66,930 units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.17%[4] - The average weekly box office revenue for movies dropped to 635 million yuan, a decrease of 59.61% month-on-month, but a significant year-on-year increase of 70.02%[4] Price Side - The PPI for copper and aluminum saw increases of 1.77% and 0.22% respectively, while rebar and diesel prices fell by 1.75% each[6] - The average price of cement was 342.72 yuan/ton, up by 1.06% month-on-month, but lower than the previous year's average[79] - The price of petroleum asphalt increased to 3,513.20 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 0.27%[81]