Consumption - Automotive retail and wholesale volumes continue to rise, but year-on-year growth has marginally declined due to the low base effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival[6] - Service consumption has weakened, particularly in urban areas affected by typhoon weather, leading to a significant drop in subway ridership in first-tier cities[7] - Food and beverage prices have shown a slight recovery, with agricultural product wholesale prices increasing, but the year-on-year decline continues to widen due to high base effects from 2024[6] Investment - As of September 27, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special bonds reached CNY 3.71 trillion, with CNY 446.52 billion issued in September alone, marking the fastest issuance pace since 2020[19] - Real estate sales have seen a slight seasonal improvement, but the absolute values remain at historical lows, with new home sales in 30 cities showing a marginal year-on-year decline[19] - The asphalt construction rate has risen significantly, reaching a yearly high, while cement and steel consumption indicate slower construction progress[19] Trade and Export - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, with container freight rates from Shanghai and Ningbo dropping by 7% and 8.5% respectively[27] - The manufacturing PMI readings for the US and Europe in September were 52.0 and 49.5, indicating a slight decline in overseas manufacturing activity, which may weaken demand for imports from China[27] Production and Inventory - Most industries are experiencing a decline in production, with coal consumption in coastal provinces showing a seasonal decrease[29] - Inventory levels are primarily decreasing, with significant reductions in coal inventories at ports due to increased downstream purchasing ahead of the holiday[37] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a slight recovery, with service prices in transportation, education, and healthcare increasing year-on-year, while clothing and housing prices have declined[42] - Industrial product prices are mixed, with the South China price index falling by 0.3% month-on-month, while cement prices increased by 2.5%[42] Liquidity - The central bank's net cash injection through reverse repos was CNY 640.6 billion last week, with an additional CNY 300 billion in medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations, totaling CNY 880.6 billion to support liquidity[44] - The US dollar index has risen significantly, reflecting a stronger US economy and impacting the USD/CNY exchange rate, which increased from 7.1125 to 7.1345[44]

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

Group 1 - The key short-term factors affecting the pricing strategy of urban investment bonds include the administrative level of urban investment platforms, financing capabilities, market sentiment, and investment entities [1][2][8] - Specific meetings, such as the State Council executive meetings and the Central Political Bureau meetings, can introduce new policies that may impact local government actions and subsequently affect urban investment bond valuations [1][11][12] - The administrative level of urban investment platforms is crucial, as the relationship between local governments and provincial governments can significantly influence financing capabilities and support for local industries [2][13] Group 2 - Market sentiment is reflected in the subscription multiples and coupon rates of urban investment bonds in the primary market, indicating the credit recognition of the platform [2][15] - The financing ability of urban investment platforms is assessed based on their relationships with various banks, particularly policy banks and state-owned commercial banks, which can indicate their overall creditworthiness [2][14] - High-frequency data, such as the manufacturing PMI and project bidding amounts, are increasingly influencing short-term valuation pricing, providing real-time insights into macroeconomic conditions [3][17][19] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring various high-frequency indicators, including logistics indices and retail indices, to gauge the current economic state and its impact on urban investment bond pricing [3][19][23] - The analysis highlights that while high-frequency data can provide valuable insights, challenges exist in ensuring the effective transmission of these data points across the entire industry chain [3][24] - The report suggests constructing a robust high-frequency data indicator system to enhance the accuracy of short-term valuation assessments [3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Upstream prices are showing a divergence. Edible agricultural product prices continue to decline, while production material prices have rebounded in the last two weeks. The narrowing decline in production material prices is due to the continuous optimization of the domestic market competition order, and some key industrial raw material prices have significantly rebounded. The supply of edible agricultural products is sufficient, leading to a continued price decline and an expanding year - on - year decline [2]. - From August 1 - 7, 2025, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities tracked by Wind was about 174,000 square meters per day, compared with about 232,000 square meters per day in August 2024 [2]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - For food, the average wholesale price of pork in the week of August 4 - 9, 2025, decreased by 0.53% week - on - week and 21.25% year - on - year. The Shandong vegetable wholesale price index increased by 4.80% week - on - week and decreased by 26.15% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week and 9.66% year - on - year [2]. - For energy, Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 5.82% and 5.23% week - on - week respectively. Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 3.18% week - on - week [11]. - For non - ferrous metals, LME copper and aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.60% and 0.15% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - to - gold ratio decreased by 2.57% week - on - week [11]. - For real estate, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 15.22% week - on - week, while the total transaction price of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 17.37% week - on - week [11]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - The report presents multiple charts showing the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, including the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, and the relationship between the production material price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year [15][18] Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - The report includes information on US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, same - store sales growth, PCE year - on - year, as well as the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index and the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank [86][82][85] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of the average daily crude steel production, production material price index, and China's commodity price index [93][99] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report provides the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [143][144]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

Consumption Trends - Consumer spending shows a divergence with weak goods consumption and strong service consumption, particularly in travel and cinema during the summer[1] - Automotive retail sales have slightly declined, while wholesale volumes have increased, indicating seasonal and promotional impacts on consumption[9] - Food prices continue to drop, with agricultural products seeing an expanding year-on-year decline, particularly affecting premium products like Moutai liquor[9] Investment Insights - As of August 2, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached CNY 2.8 trillion, marking the second-highest issuance pace since 2022, with July alone contributing CNY 616.94 billion[17] - New housing transactions in 30 cities have shown a seasonal rebound, but the year-on-year decline in average transaction area has widened from 14.8% to 15.4%[17] Price and Production Dynamics - Consumer prices are on a downward trend, with industrial prices also showing marginal declines, leading to a cooling of price increase expectations[36] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a slight decrease, with the South China price index dropping by 1.1% week-on-week, reflecting a shift in market supply and demand expectations[36] Import and Export Activity - Port operations have slowed due to typhoon impacts, with a year-on-year decline in the number of ships docking at ports[21] - Domestic export freight rates have decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous week, while import rates have slightly increased by 1.1%[21] Liquidity Conditions - Funding rates have decreased, with R007 down by 20.7 basis points and DR007 down by 22.8 basis points, indicating a trend towards a more accommodative liquidity environment[39] - The 10-year government bond yield has fallen by 2.7 basis points to 1.71%, reflecting easing pressures in the funding market[39]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming sector has shown significant growth since early June, driven by high-frequency data that boosts earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for individual companies, as well as the overall gaming sector's PE valuation [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The upcoming summer season is expected to be the strongest for high-frequency data in the gaming industry, with historical trends indicating increased gaming activity during this period [2] - The risk of market optimism regarding the gaming sector being invalidated before the end of summer is relatively low, and the AI industry is anticipated to bring surprises in Q3, attracting funds interested in AI applications [3][4] Group 2: Company Performances - Giant Network has performed exceptionally well, with its core product "Supernatural Action" likely surpassing 100 million in revenue in June, and its daily active users (DAU) showing continuous growth [6] - Kaiying Network has a solid fundamental outlook, with its legendary business performing well and a rich product pipeline expected to drive revenue growth [7] - Jiubite has shown signs of recovery after a downturn, with its core product "Wandao Mobile" stabilizing and new products exceeding expectations [8] - Shenzhou Taiyue is positioned for future growth with a rich product reserve and plans for significant promotion in Q3 [10] - Sanqi Interactive Entertainment is undervalued with a PE ratio below 15, and the upcoming release of its anticipated MMO product "Douluo Dalu" could yield substantial returns [11] - Perfect World is experiencing improved testing results and is set to enter overseas testing, which may catalyze its valuation [12]

Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate is at 73.40%, down 0.54% from the previous week[7] - The blast furnace operating rate increased to 83.84%, up 0.45% from the previous week[7] - The PTA operating rate decreased to 78.61%, down 4.39% from the previous week[7] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue is 28,100,000 CNY, a decrease of 9,000,000 CNY from the previous week[7] - Average daily retail sales of passenger cars are 60,333.45 units, down 593.05 units from the previous week[7] - Average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars are 75,186.70 units, down 371.50 units from the previous week[7] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities is 205.32 million square meters, an increase of 28.45% from the previous week[7] - The land transaction premium rate in 100 major cities is 7.09%, up 5.64% from the previous week[7] - The area of land sold in 100 major cities is 828.87 million square meters, down 428.98 million square meters from the previous week[7] Trade and Inflation - The Shanghai export container freight index is 1,869.59, down 218.65 from the previous week[8] - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.33 CNY/kg, up 0.07 CNY from the previous week[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) shows overall weak food prices, while the producer price index (PPI) indicates a rebound in domestic and international commodity prices[40][42] Transportation - The subway passenger volume in Beijing is 1,023.73 million, an increase of 58.08% from the previous week[8] - The number of domestic flights (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan) is 12,848.43, up 432.71 from the previous week[8]

Summary of Key Points Industry Overview - The report discusses recent high-frequency changes in the macroeconomic environment, indicating that long-term macro logic has remained relatively stable, with factors such as domestic policies, DeepSeek, and tariffs showing little variation. The importance of high-frequency data has increased, revealing a predominantly weak trend in recent data [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Decline in Commodity Prices**: There has been a continuous decline in the prices of black and building materials, with the recent pace of decline accelerating. This trend has persisted for a considerable time [1]. 2. **Real Estate Market Trends**: The sales of second-hand homes in the real estate sector have experienced a seasonal decline, which aligns with the post-peak policy heat. The extent of this decline is currently under observation [1]. 3. **Travel Data During Festivals**: Travel data during the Dragon Boat Festival showed weak growth compared to the May Day holiday, indicating a year-on-year decline [1]. 4. **Stock Market Financing Balance**: Since April, the financing balance in the stock market has remained weak. During the index adjustment period in April, there was a noticeable decline in financing balance, which did not recover even when the index rebounded [1]. 5. **ETF Share Decline**: Following a significant increase in ETF shares during the volatility of March-April, there has been a decline in ETF shares since May as the market stabilized [1]. Additional Important Insights - The market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 3200-3400 from May to July, with a potential significant breakthrough anticipated in Q4 [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **automotive**, **real estate**, and **foreign trade** sectors in China, highlighting their performance and trends in May 2025 [5][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Automotive Sales Growth**: - Automotive sales have shown robust growth, with average daily sales of passenger cars reaching **60,896 units** in the second week of May, a **30%** year-on-year increase. The third week saw sales of **51,175 units**, marking a **14%** increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to the continued effects of subsidy policies [5][2]. 2. **Real Estate Market Recovery**: - The year-on-year decline in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities has narrowed significantly, from **-21.7%** at the end of April to **-4.4%** in the last week of May. The total transaction area has exceeded **1.9 million square meters** in recent weeks, indicating a potential stabilization in the real estate market [5][2]. 3. **Foreign Trade and Shipping Rates**: - The export shipping price indices (NCFI, SCFI, CCFI) have shown a recovery from their lows, with NCFI increasing by **21.8%** and SCFI by **18.3%** since the last week of April. This improvement is linked to the reduction of tariffs between China and the US, enhancing trade relations [5][2]. 4. **Port Cargo Throughput**: - Cargo throughput at Chinese ports has remained high, exceeding **260 million tons** in the past two weeks, which is **6.4%** and **6.9%** higher than the average levels from the previous year. This trend supports the notion that export growth will continue to be strong in May [5][2]. 5. **Investment and Industrial Performance**: - Despite the positive consumer and external demand indicators, investment in heavy industrial products remains weak. The overall economic outlook is supported by strong consumption and external demand, but risks such as geopolitical tensions and domestic policy implementation remain [5][2]. Additional Important Content - **Risk Factors**: The report highlights potential risks including geopolitical tensions, domestic policy execution falling short of expectations, and the possibility of a global recession impacting major economies [5][2]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: Various sectors, including steel and cement, are experiencing fluctuations in production and capacity utilization rates, with some sectors showing declines while others stabilize or improve [45][48][67]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and outlook of the automotive, real estate, and foreign trade sectors in China.