Q&A 在当前中东局势持续发酵、霍尔木兹海峡实际封闭的背景下，对原油市场产生 了哪些具体影响？油价中枢的未来走势如何判断？ 当前中东局势已连续发酵两周，霍尔木兹海峡实质上处于封闭状态，近一至两 周的实际通行量较 2025 年同期正常水平下降了 97%。受此影响，伊拉克、科 威特、沙特等海湾核心产油国已开始减产，预计下周减产力度可能达到 1,000 万桶/日，约占全球原油产量的 10%。油价已站稳 100 美元/桶。沙特的东西向 管道运力杯水车薪，阿联酋的管道也因受影响而暂停运营。随着油田停产及美 国油服公司的撤离，未来复产可能需要数周至一两个月。此次事件对原油市场 的冲击前所未有，导致运费和保费大幅上涨，每桶已达 20 至 25 美元，市场风 险溢价显著提升。判断油价的中期价格中枢将明显上行，并可能对长期油价产 生深远影响。 化工-油气、农化、氟化工月度观察 20260316 摘要 霍尔木兹海峡封闭致 2000 万桶/日供给受阻，实际缺口约 1,000 万桶/ 日，油价站稳 100 美元/桶，短期中枢看至 90-100 美元/桶。 中国海洋石油（港股）直接受益油价上行，油价每涨 10 美元利润增约 200 亿 ...

Group 1 - The market trend has shifted from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven since September last year, with expectations for a new upward phase in the second half of the year, potentially surpassing the peak in the second half of 2024 [4] - The U.S. is accelerating the Section 232 investigation, with a high likelihood of imposing tariffs on copper, while the feasibility of drug tariffs remains low; results are expected to be announced in the second half of the year [10] - The net profit forecast for Qiu Tai Technology has been raised by 20%/31%/40% for 2025/2026/2027, driven by the strong growth in IoT module shipments and product specification upgrades [14] Group 2 - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71%, supported by rising prices and reduced processing costs [20] - Juhua Co. anticipates significant profit growth due to the ongoing high demand for refrigerants, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 adjusted upwards by 11%/10%/8% [24] - Miao Ke Lan Duo expects a net profit of 120 million to 145 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.1% to 103.1%, driven by strong market positioning in cheese [31] Group 3 - Tesla's global delivery volume showed a recovery in Q2 2025, while domestic new energy vehicle brands are intensifying competition, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior [36] - China Hongqiao expects a net profit increase of approximately 35% for the first half of 2025, reaching about 12.36 billion yuan, supported by stable aluminum prices and resource availability [42] - Honglu Steel Structure reported double-digit growth in order volume and production in Q2 2025, with ongoing improvements in smart manufacturing processes enhancing competitive advantages [46]