Core Insights - The US services sector expanded at its fastest pace in over a year in December, driven by robust demand growth and a rebound in hiring [1] - The ISM services index rose by 1.8 points to 54.4, marking the highest level since October 2024, and exceeded market expectations of 52.2 [1] - The December reading surpassed all forecasts in a survey of economists [1] Industry Performance - In December, 11 industries reported growth, led by retail, finance and insurance, and accommodation and food services; 5 industries contracted, including management and support services [5] - The strong performance of the services sector contrasts sharply with the weakness in manufacturing, which saw the most severe contraction since 2024 [5] Economic Indicators - New orders increased at the fastest rate since September 2024, and the index measuring business activity reached a one-year high [6] - Export orders grew at the fastest pace in over a year, indicating a recovery in demand [6] - Employment in the services sector saw the healthiest growth since February, with expectations of moderate growth in non-farm payrolls and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate [6] Price and Inventory Trends - The ISM services and materials prices index showed the slowest price increase in nine months [6] - Inventory expansion reached its fastest pace since October 2024, although the inventory sentiment index declined for the third consecutive month, indicating fewer firms believe their inventories are excessive [6] - The supplier delivery index fell 2.3 points from a one-year high [6] Sector-Specific Comments - Accommodation and food services reported high price pressures due to government trade and tariff policies, particularly affecting imports from Southeast Asia and South America [7] - The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector noted flat overall business performance, with strong demand for value brands but challenges for high-end brands [7] - The finance and insurance sector reported stable business conditions with most contracts being renewed as the new year approaches [7] - The healthcare and social assistance sector experienced a surge in demand for respiratory devices and related supplies due to rising flu cases [7] - The information sector faced the highest annual price increases from major service and data providers in years, pushing costs higher [7] - Public administration expressed ongoing uncertainty and concerns regarding tariffs and their pricing impacts [7] - The transportation and warehousing sector benefited from heightened business activity during the holiday season [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market showed unexpected resilience in April, with job openings rising from a revised 7.2 million to 7.39 million, exceeding economists' expectations of 7.1 million [1] - The increase in job vacancies primarily came from the private sector, particularly in professional and business services, as well as healthcare and social assistance [1] - Despite a reduction in job openings in local and state government education systems, federal job vacancies increased [1] Group 2 - The number of hires in April reached its highest level in nearly a year, indicating that companies continue to absorb labor [2] - Conversely, the number of layoffs rose to the highest point since October of the previous year, while the number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs decreased, suggesting a decline in confidence regarding job switching [2] - The ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals is currently at 1.0, returning to pre-pandemic levels, compared to a peak of 2.0 in 2022, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [2]