Core Insights - The US services sector expanded at its fastest pace in over a year in December, driven by robust demand growth and a rebound in hiring [1] - The ISM services index rose by 1.8 points to 54.4, marking the highest level since October 2024, and exceeded market expectations of 52.2 [1] - The December reading surpassed all forecasts in a survey of economists [1] Industry Performance - In December, 11 industries reported growth, led by retail, finance and insurance, and accommodation and food services; 5 industries contracted, including management and support services [5] - The strong performance of the services sector contrasts sharply with the weakness in manufacturing, which saw the most severe contraction since 2024 [5] Economic Indicators - New orders increased at the fastest rate since September 2024, and the index measuring business activity reached a one-year high [6] - Export orders grew at the fastest pace in over a year, indicating a recovery in demand [6] - Employment in the services sector saw the healthiest growth since February, with expectations of moderate growth in non-farm payrolls and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate [6] Price and Inventory Trends - The ISM services and materials prices index showed the slowest price increase in nine months [6] - Inventory expansion reached its fastest pace since October 2024, although the inventory sentiment index declined for the third consecutive month, indicating fewer firms believe their inventories are excessive [6] - The supplier delivery index fell 2.3 points from a one-year high [6] Sector-Specific Comments - Accommodation and food services reported high price pressures due to government trade and tariff policies, particularly affecting imports from Southeast Asia and South America [7] - The agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting sector noted flat overall business performance, with strong demand for value brands but challenges for high-end brands [7] - The finance and insurance sector reported stable business conditions with most contracts being renewed as the new year approaches [7] - The healthcare and social assistance sector experienced a surge in demand for respiratory devices and related supplies due to rising flu cases [7] - The information sector faced the highest annual price increases from major service and data providers in years, pushing costs higher [7] - Public administration expressed ongoing uncertainty and concerns regarding tariffs and their pricing impacts [7] - The transportation and warehousing sector benefited from heightened business activity during the holiday season [7]

Core Viewpoint - The ISM reported that the July non-manufacturing PMI in the U.S. was 50.1, indicating a slowdown in the service sector and falling below expectations [1] Economic Indicators - The July non-manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.8 in the previous month to 50.1, reflecting a near stagnation in the service economy [1] - Employment index fell to 46.4, marking the fourth contraction in five months and reaching one of the lowest levels since the pandemic [1] - Input cost index rose to the highest level since October 2022, indicating increasing inflationary pressures [1] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ISM data, all three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, Nasdaq down 0.65%, and S&P 500 down 0.49% [1] Industry Insights - Comments from the ISM highlighted concerns over tariffs and uncertainty affecting procurement planning in the accommodation and food services sector, leading to delays in the next fiscal year's purchasing plans [1] - The construction industry noted that trade uncertainties are causing clients to reassess project feasibility, resulting in delays or cancellations [1] - Steve Miller, chairman of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, indicated that tariffs are driving up payment prices, potentially fueling inflation [1]