Core Viewpoint - The labor market supply and demand are generally balanced according to the Federal Reserve's Daly [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment indicates stability in the labor market, suggesting no immediate concerns regarding employment fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials indicate that if the labor market shows signs of weakness, the timing for restarting interest rate cuts may come sooner, influenced by pressure from Trump [1][2] - Trump's immigration policies are complicating the Fed's ability to assess the true state of the labor market, making it difficult to determine whether employment slowdowns are due to decreased labor demand or reduced labor supply [2][3] - Analysts expect a significant slowdown in immigration this year, which could lead employers to raise wages to fill positions, potentially causing shortages in certain goods or services [2][3] Group 2 - The balance of labor supply and demand has changed, with economists noting that the monthly job growth needs to be compared against a new equilibrium level that reflects labor market conditions [3][4] - The expected job growth figures, even if around 110,000, may not provide a clear consensus on whether they exceed or fall below the supply-demand balance [4][5] - Economists are shifting focus from monthly job growth to unemployment rates as a more direct measure of labor market health, although this approach has its limitations [5][6] Group 3 - The Fed's recent decision to maintain interest rates reflects a cautious approach, with officials acknowledging the need for more data before making any changes [6][7] - Concerns are raised that if the slowdown in job growth is due to reduced labor supply rather than weak demand, cutting rates could lead to higher inflation [6][7] - The potential for inflation to accelerate due to Trump's trade and immigration policies adds to the complexity of the Fed's decision-making process [6][7]

目前来看，这种疲软尚未反映在数据中，因此美联储暂时维持利率不变的立场。市场和政策制定者正密 切关注本周五即将公布的5月份官方就业报告，市场预期该报告将显示就业增长速度放缓，而失业率仍 保持稳定。 数据显示，4月份招聘人数升至近一年最高水平，显示企业在持续吸纳劳动力。然而，同期裁员人数升 至去年10月以来的最高点，而选择主动辞职的人数则有所下降，这表明人们对跳槽或找到更好工作的信 心下降。 另一个值得关注的指标是"每名失业者对应的职位空缺数"，这一比例目前为1.0，回到了新冠疫情前的 水平。相比之下，这一比例在2022年曾一度达到2.0，表明当时职位空缺远大于求职人数。美联储官员 通常将该数据视为衡量劳动力市场供需平衡的重要参考。 不过，也有部分经济学家对JOLTS数据的准确性提出质疑，原因包括调查回复率偏低以及数据频繁修 正。事实上，招聘网站Indeed提供的另一项类似指数(该数据为每日更新)显示，4月份的职位空缺数量实 际上是下降的。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管经济不确定性加剧，美国就业市场在4月份表现出意外的韧性。根据美国劳工 统计局周二公布的JOLTS数据，4月份的职位空缺从经修正后的720万个升至739 ...