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天岳先进(688234.SH/02631.HK)"AH"双平台:全球碳化硅龙头港股上市,打开AI算力与AI眼镜第二增长曲线
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-21 01:56
Core Viewpoint - Tianyue Advanced has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, becoming the first company in China to achieve an "A+H" dual-platform layout in the silicon carbide substrate industry, attracting significant market interest and investment [1][8]. Group 1: Global Leadership Potential - The company has established a strong market presence, with a projected global silicon carbide substrate market size of 8.8 billion RMB in 2024, expected to grow to 58.5 billion RMB by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.1% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. - Tianyue Advanced is projected to capture 16.7% of global substrate revenue in 2024, ranking among the top three, and has a 22.8% market share in the conductive segment, making it the second globally [2]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 417 million RMB in 2022 to 1.768 billion RMB in 2024, with a turnaround to profitability and a gross margin of 24.6%, resulting in a net profit of 179 million RMB [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has achieved significant technological breakthroughs, completing the commercialization of 2-8 inch substrates and planning to launch the first 12-inch samples in 2024, indicating advancements in size scaling and defect control [3]. - Tianyue Advanced holds over 500 patents, transitioning from "point innovations" to a "systematic moat" in technology, validated by international authorities and clients [3]. Group 3: Manufacturing Scale - The company has established a dual-base production strategy in Shandong and Shanghai, with a total production capacity of approximately 420,000 wafers per year and a utilization rate of 97.6% [3]. - The operational efficiency of the Shanghai factory, which began mass production in May 2023, has led to reduced fixed costs and improved yield rates, enhancing gross margins and cash flow [3]. Group 4: High-Quality Customer Base - Tianyue Advanced has formed partnerships with over half of the top ten power semiconductor manufacturers globally, including Infineon, Bosch, and ON Semiconductor, indicating a strong demand-side position [4]. - The company's overseas revenue is projected to grow by 104% year-on-year in 2024, accounting for nearly half of total revenue, reflecting a robust global sales and quality system [4]. Group 5: AI Glasses and NVIDIA Ecosystem - The company is positioned at the intersection of the rapidly growing AI glasses market, with global shipments expected to reach approximately 870,000 units in Q2 2025, driven by demand from brands like Meta and Xiaomi [5][6]. - Tianyue Advanced's silicon carbide substrates are integral to the optical waveguide technology used in AI glasses, marking it as a key player in this emerging market [6]. - The company is also embedded in NVIDIA's ecosystem, benefiting from the demand expansion in AI accelerators and data centers, which could enhance its valuation significantly [6][7]. Group 6: Market Position and Future Outlook - The listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange provides Tianyue Advanced with efficient financing channels for capacity expansion, with an issue price of 42.8 HKD creating a safety margin of over 40% compared to A-shares [8]. - The company has begun supplying major clients in Japan and has received industry recognition, indicating a shift from being a "Chinese leader" to an "international brand" [8]. - The current valuation mismatch between deep discounts in H-shares and high growth in performance suggests potential for valuation recovery as AI supply chain news unfolds [9].