华金期货月度报告 产业分类：新能源-双硅 分析师：马园园 执业资格证号： F3059193/Z0016074 华金期货有限公司 交易咨询 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 工业硅、多晶硅 3 月策略报告 期货研究报告 工业硅：供给宽松&成本端支撑，宽幅整理走势 多晶硅：基本面弱势&期货端收紧投机，量力参与 报告日期：2026.2.3 报告内容摘要： 工业硅： 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、 复制、发表或引用。如征得本 公司同意进行引用、刊发的， 修改。 工业硅价格宽幅整理走势，一是基本面较前期变动不大，二是受到 2 月份的节假日效应。供应方面：2 月国内工业硅产量下降，3 月初新 疆部分停产产能复产，叠加月内另有部分复工计划，预计产量环比增 加至 34 万吨以上。需求方面：2 月国内多晶硅、有机硅、铝合金市场 均在节日效应下产量下降，3 月份均有不同程度复产。其中多晶硅产 量提升至 8.5 万吨水平，环比增加 10%；有机硅延续缩量供应节奏， 预计排产 21 万吨。整体来看工业硅 3 月份供需双增，库存高位；近 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: 12 - month price is expected to show a pattern of shock consolidation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct interval band operations. The main risk points include device start - up adjustments and polysilicon price transmission [3] - Polysilicon: It is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation in the short term. The price fluctuates in the high - level range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, with high volatility. Related enterprises can intervene in hedging. The risk points are the progress of policy procurement and enterprise device changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures market review**: In November 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon maintained a range - bound trend. The industrial silicon futures SI2601 contract ran in the range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton, closing at 9,130 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.33% month - on - month. The polysilicon futures PS2601 contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.03% month - on - month [7][11][12] - **Basis performance**: For industrial silicon, the basis at the end of November was 385 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with the beginning of the month, and the basis change was mainly dominated by the futures price. For polysilicon, the basis at the end of November was - 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis change was also mainly dominated by the futures price [15][16] 2. Industrial Silicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot**: The prices of main production areas of industrial silicon changed little. The prices in the northwest followed the futures market, and there was a certain price fluctuation in the middle of the month, but it quickly fell back. The downstream demand for 553 was weak, while the market activity of 421 was high. There was no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and the futures [19][21] - **Supply**: As of November 25, the number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces in operation decreased to 265, with an overall opening rate of 33.29%. The output in November was about 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 12%, and it was expected to further decrease in December [22][26] - **Cost and profit**: In November, the cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang changed little, while the cost in Sichuan and Yunnan increased. The average full - cost of national industrial silicon was about 9,200 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers had cost inversion [30] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight fluctuation, and it was still at a relatively high level. The social inventory decreased, the production enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream enterprise inventory changed little [33] 3. Polysilicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot market price performance**: In November, the polysilicon price was basically stable. The N - type polysilicon price index decreased slightly month - on - month. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, but the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price [36][37] - **Supply**: The domestic polysilicon output in November was about 115,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. It was expected to remain stable or slightly change in December [43][44] - **Cost and profit**: Since the implementation of the "anti - involution" in July 2025, the polysilicon product profit turned from loss to profit. In November, the cost increased and the profit declined, but the overall industry was still profitable [46] - **Demand**: - **Silicon wafer**: In November, the silicon wafer price decreased, the profit was generally in a loss state, and the output decreased. The production schedule in December was expected to further decline [48][50] - **Battery cell**: In November, the battery cell price and profit weakened, the output decline was limited, and the production schedule in December was expected to be further lowered [53] - **Component**: The component market price was weakly stable and differentiated. The production in November decreased slightly, and the production schedule in December was expected to further decline [58][61] - **Inventory**: The polysilicon production enterprise inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 281,000 tons. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [62] 4. Silicon Industry Demand: Silicone & Aluminum Alloy - **Silicone market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the DMC price of the silicone market changed greatly. After the industry meeting, the price was raised. In December, affected by the production reduction policy and market expectations, the demand for industrial silicon was expected to drop to 100,000 - 110,000 tons [65][71] - **Aluminum alloy market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the aluminum alloy industry demand was stable, and the silicon consumption was at a rigid demand level. In December, the demand in the new energy field was stable, and some enterprises might increase production slightly. It was expected that the silicon consumption would increase by 3% - 5% compared with November [74][75] 5. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the domestic industrial silicon supply and demand were expected to decrease. The cost in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions was expected to increase, the profit was expected to decline, and the inventory was expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [76] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The industrial silicon market was in a relatively "tight balance" state. The price in December was expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main risk points were the enterprise device changes and polysilicon price transmission. The active contract would gradually shift from SI2601 to 2605 in the middle and later period, and attention should be paid to the roll - over risk [77] 6. Polysilicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the polysilicon supply was expected to be flat or slightly fluctuate compared with November, the demand was expected to decline, and the inventory would remain at a high level [78][81] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The polysilicon market was in a relative "balance state". It was expected to show a high - level shock trend, and the inflection point still needed to wait. The polysilicon futures price had high volatility, and relevant enterprises could intervene in hedging operations [82]