Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: 12 - month price is expected to show a pattern of shock consolidation. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or conduct interval band operations. The main risk points include device start - up adjustments and polysilicon price transmission [3] - Polysilicon: It is expected to remain in a high - level consolidation in the short term. The price fluctuates in the high - level range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton, with high volatility. Related enterprises can intervene in hedging. The risk points are the progress of policy procurement and enterprise device changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures market review**: In November 2025, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon maintained a range - bound trend. The industrial silicon futures SI2601 contract ran in the range of 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton, closing at 9,130 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.33% month - on - month. The polysilicon futures PS2601 contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 0.03% month - on - month [7][11][12] - **Basis performance**: For industrial silicon, the basis at the end of November was 385 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with the beginning of the month, and the basis change was mainly dominated by the futures price. For polysilicon, the basis at the end of November was - 3,090 yuan/ton, and the basis change was also mainly dominated by the futures price [15][16] 2. Industrial Silicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot**: The prices of main production areas of industrial silicon changed little. The prices in the northwest followed the futures market, and there was a certain price fluctuation in the middle of the month, but it quickly fell back. The downstream demand for 553 was weak, while the market activity of 421 was high. There was no arbitrage opportunity between the spot and the futures [19][21] - **Supply**: As of November 25, the number of domestic industrial silicon furnaces in operation decreased to 265, with an overall opening rate of 33.29%. The output in November was about 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 12%, and it was expected to further decrease in December [22][26] - **Cost and profit**: In November, the cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang changed little, while the cost in Sichuan and Yunnan increased. The average full - cost of national industrial silicon was about 9,200 yuan/ton, and some manufacturers had cost inversion [30] - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight fluctuation, and it was still at a relatively high level. The social inventory decreased, the production enterprise inventory increased, and the downstream enterprise inventory changed little [33] 3. Polysilicon Market Situation Analysis - **Spot market price performance**: In November, the polysilicon price was basically stable. The N - type polysilicon price index decreased slightly month - on - month. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, but the polysilicon enterprises had a strong willingness to support the price [36][37] - **Supply**: The domestic polysilicon output in November was about 115,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 14%. It was expected to remain stable or slightly change in December [43][44] - **Cost and profit**: Since the implementation of the "anti - involution" in July 2025, the polysilicon product profit turned from loss to profit. In November, the cost increased and the profit declined, but the overall industry was still profitable [46] - **Demand**: - **Silicon wafer**: In November, the silicon wafer price decreased, the profit was generally in a loss state, and the output decreased. The production schedule in December was expected to further decline [48][50] - **Battery cell**: In November, the battery cell price and profit weakened, the output decline was limited, and the production schedule in December was expected to be further lowered [53] - **Component**: The component market price was weakly stable and differentiated. The production in November decreased slightly, and the production schedule in December was expected to further decline [58][61] - **Inventory**: The polysilicon production enterprise inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 281,000 tons. The downstream demand was weak, and the procurement was mainly based on rigid demand [62] 4. Silicon Industry Demand: Silicone & Aluminum Alloy - **Silicone market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the DMC price of the silicone market changed greatly. After the industry meeting, the price was raised. In December, affected by the production reduction policy and market expectations, the demand for industrial silicon was expected to drop to 100,000 - 110,000 tons [65][71] - **Aluminum alloy market performance and demand forecast for silicon**: In November, the aluminum alloy industry demand was stable, and the silicon consumption was at a rigid demand level. In December, the demand in the new energy field was stable, and some enterprises might increase production slightly. It was expected that the silicon consumption would increase by 3% - 5% compared with November [74][75] 5. Industrial Silicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the domestic industrial silicon supply and demand were expected to decrease. The cost in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions was expected to increase, the profit was expected to decline, and the inventory was expected to remain stable with minor fluctuations [76] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The industrial silicon market was in a relatively "tight balance" state. The price in December was expected to fluctuate mainly, and the main risk points were the enterprise device changes and polysilicon price transmission. The active contract would gradually shift from SI2601 to 2605 in the middle and later period, and attention should be paid to the roll - over risk [77] 6. Polysilicon Summary and Future Market Forecast - **Supply - demand structure summary**: In December, the polysilicon supply was expected to be flat or slightly fluctuate compared with November, the demand was expected to decline, and the inventory would remain at a high level [78][81] - **Futures market trend analysis**: The polysilicon market was in a relative "balance state". It was expected to show a high - level shock trend, and the inflection point still needed to wait. The polysilicon futures price had high volatility, and relevant enterprises could intervene in hedging operations [82]

Group 1: General Information - The reports are from October 28, 2025, and cover multiple industries including oils and fats, meal, pork, corn, sugar, cotton, and eggs [1][2][4][7][10][12][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports Group 3: Core Views Oils and Fats Industry - Palm oil may weaken in the short - term due to production growth, export slowdown, and potential inventory increase. After the MPOB report, it may rise supported by production and inventory decline and the Indonesian B50 topic. Domestic palm oil futures may follow the Malaysian trend. Soybean oil may rise in the short - term due to strong CBOT soybean and soybean oil, but its increase may be limited by sufficient supply and weak demand [1] Meal Industry - With Sino - US relations warming, the expectation of China purchasing US soybeans is increasing, and US soybean压榨 data is strong. Brazilian soybean exports to China remain high. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, but costs are strongly supported, so domestic meal is expected to trend strongly [2] Pork Industry - Recent pig price rebounds are due to secondary fattening. There is demand improvement, but 11 and 12 - month出栏量 will increase, and there may be new pressure around the Winter Solstice. Current arbitrage holding risks are high [4] Corn Industry - Northeast corn prices are stable overall, with some areas declining. In North China, farmers' selling enthusiasm decreases as prices fall. Corn is in the concentrated selling period, and the supply pressure keeps the market weak. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for刚需 [7] Sugar Industry - Brazil's gasoline price cut dashed the expectation of a lower sugar - making ratio, and the sugar supply outlook is loose. As the Northern Hemisphere's crushing season begins, the market focuses on India and Thailand. Domestic sugar prices are near production costs, and the current bottom - shock weak pattern may continue [11] Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises' profits and cash flows have recovered, and the rigid demand for cotton is resilient. New cotton costs have increased, but there is hedging pressure, and the short - term cotton price may fluctuate within a range [12] Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory, restored egg - laying rate, and increased egg weight. Demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline in the second half of the week due to supply - demand imbalance [15] Group 4: Summary by Industry Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On October 27, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8480 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.36%) from October 24. The futures price of Y2601 was 8234 yuan, up 40 yuan (0.49%). The basis was 246 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 3.91%) [1] - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 9030 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.33%). The futures price of P2601 was 9100 yuan, down 22 yuan (- 0.24%). The basis was - 70 yuan, up 52 yuan (42.62%) [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 10050 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.50%). The futures price of OI601 was 9748 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.13%). The basis was 302 yuan, up 63 yuan (26.36%) [1] Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2960 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of M2601 was 2932 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.03%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [2] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2410 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.41%). The futures price of RM2601 was 2335 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.43%). The basis was 75 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 21.05%) [2] Pork Industry - **Futures**: The main - contract basis was 120, up 345 (153.33%). The price of Live Pig 2511 was 12065 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan (5.00%); Live Pig 2601 was 12330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan (1.27%) [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 12450 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; in Shandong was 12400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan [4] Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2601 was 2112 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.98%). The basis was 28 yuan, up 1 yuan (3.70%) [7] - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2601 was 2425 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan (- 0.66%). The basis was 85 yuan, up 16 yuan (23.19%) [7] Sugar Industry - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5445 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); Sugar 2605 was 5399 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.02%) [11] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5725 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.09%) [11] Cotton Industry - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2605 was 13575 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan (0.26%); Cotton 2601 was 13565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.18%) [12] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14690 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan (0.23%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14833 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.20%) [12] Egg Industry - **Futures**: The price of Egg 11 contract was 2918 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan (1.46%); Egg 01 contract was 3327 yuan/500KG, up 25 yuan (0.76%) [15] - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan (1.08%) [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Pig Industry - Short - term pig prices are rebounding due to secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure remains, and prices are not optimistic. Short - term futures operations may be strong, but the upward space is limited, and the supply pressure in the medium - and long - term is difficult to ease [2]. Oil Industry - Malaysian palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic palm oil futures may also be weak. US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Meal Industry - US soybeans are rebounding, and domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient. However, domestic soybean and meal inventories are high, and the spot price is difficult to improve. The meal lacks a continuous upward drive, but there is support at the cost end [8]. Corn Industry - Corn prices are still likely to be weak due to selling pressure from a bumper harvest. Demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is also under pressure [10]. Sugar Industry - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and the international raw sugar price is likely to be weak. The domestic sugar price has limited downward momentum and may be supported [14]. Cotton Industry - The downstream textile enterprises have certain demand for cotton, and the new cotton cost provides support. However, there is hedging pressure, and short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [15]. Egg Industry - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices may rise slightly first and then decline, and the main contract may face pressure around 3200 [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Industry Futures Indicators - The basis of the main contract increased by 125 to - 225, with a change rate of 35.71%. Futures prices of contracts such as "pig 2511" and "pig 2601" declined slightly. The main contract's open interest increased by 4.68% to 112,397, and the number of warehouse receipts increased to 206 [2]. Spot Prices - Spot prices in different regions showed different trends, with prices in Henan and Hunan rising, and those in Shandong, Liaoning, and Hebei falling [2]. Spot Indicators - Daily slaughter volume decreased by 1.29%, weekly white - strip prices dropped by 100%, and weekly self - breeding and purchased - piglet breeding profits increased by 24.12% and 22.97% respectively. The monthly inventory of reproductive sows decreased by 0.10% to 40.38 million heads [2]. Oil Industry Palm Oil - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure to decline, and domestic Dalian palm oil futures may also seek support in the range of 8900 - 9000 yuan [6]. Soybean Oil - US soybean oil is affected by related oils, and domestic soybean oil inventory is at a high level, but there may be a price - holding mentality due to losses in oil mill crushing margins [6]. Canola Oil - The spot price of canola oil decreased slightly, and the basis also declined [6]. Spreads - Spreads such as the three - oil inter - period spread and the palm oil inter - period spread showed different changes [6]. Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price of soybean meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.68%, the futures price decreased slightly, and the basis increased significantly. The crushing margins of imported soybeans from Argentina and Brazil showed different trends [8]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu increased by 0.41%, the futures price decreased, and the basis increased. The crushing margin of imported rapeseed from Canada decreased [8]. Soybeans - The spot and futures prices of soybeans in different regions changed slightly, and the basis also changed accordingly [8]. Spreads - Spreads such as the soybean meal inter - period spread and the oil - meal ratio showed different changes [8]. Corn Industry Corn - The futures price of corn decreased slightly, the basis increased, and the north - south trade profit and import profit decreased [10]. Corn Starch - The futures price of corn starch decreased, the basis increased, and the profit of Shandong starch increased [10]. Sugar Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of sugar contracts such as "sugar 2601" and "sugar 2605" decreased slightly, and the open interest and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14]. Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar decreased, and the price differences with domestic sugar also changed [14]. Industry Situation - National sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and industrial inventory decreased significantly. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% [14]. Cotton Industry Futures Market - The futures prices of cotton contracts such as "cotton 2605" and "cotton 2601" decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased [15]. Spot Market - Spot prices such as the Xinjiang arrival price and the CC Index increased slightly, and the price differences with futures contracts also changed [15]. Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased significantly, industrial inventory decreased, and imports increased by 42.9% [15]. Egg Industry Futures and Spot Indicators - Futures prices of egg contracts such as "egg 11" and "egg 01" increased, the spot price of eggs increased, and the basis and spreads changed [17]. Related Indicators - The price of egg - laying chicks increased, the price of culled hens decreased, and the egg - feed ratio and breeding profit decreased [17].

Report Introduction - The report is the Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report dated October 16, 2025, written by Bian Shuyang and research assistant Kang Quangui [1][2] Price Forecast and Risk Strategy Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.53% and a historical percentile of 16.8% [3] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long - spot positions like planting subjects with high new - bean selling needs in autumn but facing large selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 Soybean No. 1 futures contract at a 30% hedging ratio when the price is between 4000 - 4050. Also, for the situation of concentrated listing and weakened seller bargaining power, sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a 30% ratio when the price is between 30 - 50 [3] - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those with short - spot positions worried about rising raw material prices, it is advisable to mainly wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on forward procurement management, with a long position in A2603 and A2605 contracts [3] Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Core Contradictions - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations have driven up the futures price, with the main 2601 contract breaking through the 4000 - yuan mark and the near - month 11 contract approaching it. However, the spot price has not risen in sync, leading to a weaker basis and theoretical delivery profit on the futures. Imported soybeans are currently in sufficient supply, and the support from the future shortage of imported soybeans for domestic soybeans needs time to materialize. New - grain listing pressure remains, and there is a risk of price decline above 4000 yuan. The current domestic soybean market is in the peak harvest and listing season, with ample supply and significant price pressure. Low - protein new - season soybeans are weakly priced, and prices may continue to fall. State reserve purchases are likely in a wait - and - see stage [4] 利多 Factors - Tensions in Sino - US trade relations provide emotional support for domestic soybeans - There are expectations for state reserve procurement policies - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in two - way auctions provides short - term market support [4] 利空 Factors - During the new - grain listing period, the spot price is prone to fall and difficult to rise [4] Price and Market Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 15, 2025, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 3880 yuan/ton with a basis of - 119; in Nenjiang, it was 3820 yuan/ton with a basis of - 133; in Jiamusi, it was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 53; and in Changchun, it was 3950 yuan/ton with a basis of - 3 [4] Futures Closing Price - On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing price of Soybean No. 1 11 contract was 3981 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 01 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.81%; the 03 contract was 3999 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.71%; the 05 contract was 4032 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.60%; the 07 contract was 4030 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.55%; and the 09 contract was 4033 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 0.57% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In October, the domestic soybean market is at the peak of new - season harvesting and listing, with abundant spot supply and significant price pressure. New - season low - and medium - protein soybean prices are gradually falling and may continue to bottom out as the listing volume increases [4]. - With the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential policies such as state reserves, the policy attribute of soybeans is strengthening, increasing the uncertainty of price trends [4]. - The sharp rise of soybean futures contracts on Thursday is unexpected given the large spot pressure, possibly related to the recent deterioration of trade situation. Further price increases will face hedging pressure, and the main contract is transitioning to 01 [4]. - The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - In October, due to the new - season concentrated harvest and listing, the price pressure is large, and the rebound space is expected to be limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for the soybean 11 contract is 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.92% and a historical percentile of 22.5% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long spot positions, when there is a large demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short soybean futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio at the price range of 4000 - 4050. Also, selling call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at the range of 30 - 50 can increase the selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is recommended to wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter and focus on long - term procurement management by taking long positions in A2603 and A2605 [3]. Market Quotes - **Price Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 9, 2025, the closing price of soybean 11 increased from 3927 to 3975, a daily increase of 48 (1.22%); the closing price of soybean 01 increased from 3904 to 3973, a daily increase of 69 (1.77%); the closing price of soybean 03 increased from 3903 to 3970, a daily increase of 67 (1.72%); the closing price of soybean 05 increased from 3936 to 4000, a daily increase of 64 (1.63%); the closing price of soybean 07 increased from 3942 to 3997, a daily increase of 55 (1.40%); the closing price of soybean 09 increased from 3944 to 4000, a daily increase of 56 (1.42%) [5]. Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The recent deterioration of Sino - US trade situation provides emotional support for domestic soybeans [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: In October, the domestic soybean market is in the new - season concentrated harvest and listing period, with large price pressure and limited rebound space [4]. - **Other Influencing Factors**: Policy factors such as state reserves and two - way auctions also affect the market, and the uncertainty of price trends increases [4][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (6.30 - 7.6), the spot price of live pigs showed a strong trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan was 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows was 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight at the beginning of the month, and the demand decreased during the week. The average slaughter weight decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The futures price of live pigs also showed a strong trend. The LH2509 contract had a high of 14420 yuan/ton, a low of 13820 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 14305 yuan/ton. The basis was 875 yuan/ton [3]. - Next week (7.7 - 7.13), the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact on the price during the off - season. Although the policy of purchasing and storing may support the price, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is getting smaller. The LH2509 contract price is mainly driven by sentiment. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of live pigs was strong. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan decreased from 37.3 yuan/kg last week to 36.9 yuan/kg, and the price of live pigs in Henan increased from 14.93 yuan/kg last week to 15.18 yuan/kg. The national price of 50KG binary sows remained unchanged at 1623 yuan/head. The supply was tight due to light pressure on group slaughter at the beginning of the month and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the demand decreased with the increase in temperature. The average slaughter weight was 125.13KG, a 0.1% decrease from last week [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price was strong. The high was 14420 yuan/ton, the low was 13820 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14305 yuan/ton, compared with 14005 yuan/ton last week. The basis was 875 yuan/ton, down from 925 yuan/ton last week [3]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Spot Market**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The adjustment of group slaughter has a great impact during the off - season. Although there is a policy bottom expectation from purchasing and storing, the demand is weak, and the idle space in the social circle is shrinking. There may be second - fattening entry in early and mid - July, but attention should be paid to pressure release [4]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract price first traded on the basis logic and then on the anti - involution logic. It is currently mainly sentiment - driven. The short - term support level is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the spot profit - taking and anti - spread trading opportunities [5]. 3.3 Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis this week was 875 yuan/ton, and the LH2509 - LH2511 spread was 585 yuan/ton [10]. - **Supply**: The average slaughter weight this week was 125.13KG (last week was 125.26KG). In May, the pork production was 549.6 tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase, and the pork import was 9.37 million tons, a 16.17% month - on - month increase [13]. - **Demand**: No specific demand - related data summary was provided other than the description of the current weak demand situation in the market outlook section.