Golub Capital BDC (NasdaqGS:GBDC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call November 19, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsDavid Golub - CEORobert Dodd - Director, Specialty FinanceCraig Benton - Head of Investor RelationsChris Ericson - CFOTim Topicz - COOJordan Wathen - Equity Research AssociateCraig BentonHello everyone, and welcome to GBDC's earnings call for the fiscal quarter and fiscal year, and it's September 30, 2025. Before we begin, I'd like to take a moment to remind our listeners that remarks made during this c ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net investment income (NII) of $0.46 per share, unchanged from the prior quarter, resulting in an annualized NII yield of 9.5% [5][20] - Net asset value (NAV) decreased to $19.28 per share as of September 30, down from $19.55 per share as of June 30, primarily due to unrealized and realized losses from certain portfolio companies affected by tariffs [5][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment portfolio totaled approximately $1.6 billion at fair value, with 187 companies, and an average investment size of about 0.6% of the total portfolio [7] - The portfolio consists primarily of first-lien loans, representing 90% of the portfolio at fair value [7] - The weighted average yield of income-producing securities at cost remained stable at 10.4% [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. remains resilient, with expectations of near-term growth in loan activity due to recent Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity on tariff policies [6] - The company has no exposure to recent bankruptcies, indicating a focus on governance by working with established private equity sponsors [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on strong cash flow generation, tight EBITDA definitions, and enhanced monitoring rights to proactively manage the portfolio [6] - The board declared a regular dividend of $0.42 per share for the fourth quarter, representing a 9% and 12% annualized dividend yield based on NAV and stock price, respectively [8][24] - The company anticipates that a lower base rate environment may gradually reduce portfolio yields and pressure net investment income, but believes it is well-positioned to address these challenges [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term prospects of the company, citing a strong capital structure and diversified portfolio [25] - The company noted that while tariff impacts have been identified, the overall portfolio remains resilient, with most borrowers experiencing steady revenue and EBITDA growth [17][18] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a net debt to equity ratio of 1.20 times, providing flexibility for portfolio growth [10] - The weighted average interest coverage of the companies in the investment portfolio was stable at 2.1 times, indicating strong earnings durability [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the probability of maintaining NII coverage of the dividend at 100% or more? - Management believes that available levers will allow them to cover the base dividend with NII in the near term, with potential for increased non-interest-related income [27][28] Question: Has the ability of exposed companies to handle tariffs deteriorated? - Management indicated that overall, companies have responded well to tariff pressures, although two specific companies have shown a need for a longer recovery period [30][32] Question: What is the state of competition in the lower-middle market? - Management acknowledged spread compression in the market but emphasized that they are still able to secure high-quality transactions with appropriate risk-adjusted returns [34][36] Question: What drove the increase in spreads on new investments? - The company has maintained new origination spreads around 500 over SOFR, driven by a mix of incremental activity from existing portfolio companies and opportunities in specific market segments [41][42] Question: Are there any non-recurring items in earnings this quarter? - Management confirmed that there were no significant non-recurring items, with core interest income representing the majority of total revenue [51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total investment income decreased to $1.6 million from $2.2 million year-over-year, reflecting both debt repayments and a slowdown in origination dynamics [13][14] - Net investment income increased to $993,000 compared to $887,000 in the same quarter last year, demonstrating effective expense management [15] - Net asset value (NAV) declined to $53.6 million or $18.06 per share from $19.10 per share sequentially, primarily due to valuation adjustments and dividend payments [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment portfolio's fair value was $44.3 million across 19 companies, down from year-end, largely due to significant repayments and valuation adjustments [6][7] - The portfolio mix consisted of 83% debt and 17% equity, with a weighted average yield of 12.2% [7] - 39% of investment income was attributable to non-cash PIK interest, up from 24% in the prior year [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The market for new deal origination remains sluggish, with borrowers facing tighter credit conditions and higher financing costs [4] - The company noted a greater use of PIK interest by borrowers as they adapt to the current financing environment [4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maintain its dividend through disciplined expense management and strong liquidity, even during periods of muted investment activity [6][17] - The focus is on being selective in deal origination while remaining prepared to capitalize on opportunities as market conditions improve [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging lending environment, highlighting a strong balance sheet with no debt and significant liquidity [18] - There are early signs that anticipated interest rate reductions could stimulate deal origination in the future [19] Other Important Information - The company declared and paid a regular quarterly dividend of $0.29 per share, maintaining this level for three consecutive quarters [5][17] - The company experienced a realized loss of $2.9 million on Tilson Technology Management following its Chapter 11 process [10] Q&A Session Summary - No specific questions or answers were provided in the content regarding the Q&A session.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the third quarter, the net asset value (NAV) per share was $11.10, reflecting a 0.7% decrease quarter over quarter [19] - Net investment income (NII) for the quarter was $0.32 per share, an increase from $0.28 per share in the previous quarter [21][24] - The net leverage ratio was 1.26 times at quarter end, down from 1.29 times as of June 30 [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Barings-originated positions now constitute 95% of the BBDC portfolio at fair value, up from 76% at the beginning of 2022 [8] - The weighted average yield at fair value was 9.9%, showing a slight reduction from the prior quarter due to lower base rates [9] - Interest coverage within the portfolio was 2.4 times, above industry averages and consistent with the prior quarter [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private credit ecosystem has seen meaningful growth over the past decade, with increased activity across all market segments [10][13] - The competition for new assets remains aggressive, but the core middle market is experiencing less pressure compared to other segments [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on core middle-market strategies, emphasizing sectors that perform resiliently across economic environments [7][10] - The leadership transition to Tom McDonald as the new CEO is expected to provide continuity and build on the existing foundation [4][5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a moderate increase in deployment opportunities, benefiting from incumbency and deep private equity coverage [15] - The company remains confident in its credit quality and expects positive outcomes in the coming quarters [18] Other Important Information - The board declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, consistent with the prior quarter, representing a 9.4% yield on NAV [9][24] - The company has spillover income of $0.65 per share, equating to more than two quarters of the regular dividend [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations on repayment activity with recent Fed cuts - Management noted that a significant portion of repayments is from sales to their joint venture and anticipates a moderate uptick in repayment velocity towards year-end [28][29] Question: Plans for share buybacks given stock trading at a discount - Management stated that share buybacks are consistently evaluated and there may be activity in the coming quarters [30]

Core Viewpoint - Despite strong performances from major U.S. lending institutions, concerns about the stability of the credit market persist, drawing attention to upcoming earnings reports from lesser-known financial companies, particularly Business Development Companies (BDCs) [1] Group 1: Market Concerns and BDC Performance - The recent bankruptcies of First Brands Group and Tricolor Holdings, along with losses from two banks due to fraudulent loans, have heightened worries about credit quality, contributing to a decline in U.S. stocks in mid-October [2] - BDC earnings reports are seen as real-time stress tests for private credit, providing timely data on loan delinquencies, fair value measurements, and leverage costs compared to traditional banks [2] - Year-to-date, the S&P BDC Index has fallen by 14%, while the S&P 500 Index has risen by 16%, indicating underperformance of BDCs in the current market environment [2] Group 2: Interest Rate Impact and Investor Sentiment - Analysts attribute the recent weakness in BDC stock prices to expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing credit concerns, which have drawn increased investor scrutiny [5] - Many BDCs hold significant floating-rate assets, making them more susceptible to the impacts of interest rate cuts [5] - The private credit market has expanded to a $1.7 trillion industry, with BDCs providing transparency in the opaque private loan sector, attracting retail investors during the Fed's rate hike period in 2022 [5] Group 3: Risk and Market Reactions - Critics express concerns about the risks associated with BDCs, particularly regarding their trading prices relative to book values, as highlighted by JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon [6] - Short-selling activity has increased, with over $127 million in net gains from short trades on the top ten listed BDCs in the past 30 days, indicating a bearish sentiment [6] - However, early signals from major private credit institutions like Ares Capital Corp. suggest stable credit quality, which may alleviate some widespread concerns [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net investment income (NII) of $0.46 per share for Q2 2025, an increase from $0.45 per share in Q1 2025. Excluding one-time accelerated amortization, NII was $0.48 per share [5][21] - NAV per share decreased by approximately 0.4% to $19.55, down from $19.62 at the end of Q1 2025, primarily due to a special dividend of $0.05 per share paid during the quarter [6][22] - The company maintained a 110% base dividend coverage for the quarter [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The investment portfolio totaled over $1.6 billion at fair value, consisting of 187 companies with an average investment size of approximately 0.6% of the total portfolio [9] - First lien loans represented 91% of the portfolio at fair value, indicating a strong focus on senior secured debt [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Deal activity remained constrained in Q2 2025 due to ongoing tariff discussions and regulatory uncertainty, impacting M&A volume [6] - The weighted average yield of income-producing securities remained stable at 10.4% [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on disciplined credit underwriting, capital preservation, and strong free cash flow generation, particularly in the lower middle market [26] - A $20 million stock repurchase program was approved to opportunistically repurchase shares, reflecting confidence in the company's valuation [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that the current discount to NAV is unwarranted and highlighted the company's long-term performance track record, which has outperformed public BDC averages [14][15] - The company remains optimistic about its ability to navigate market volatility and maintain a stable NAV profile [26] Other Important Information - The company declared a regular dividend of $0.42 per share for Q3 2025, payable on October 15, 2025 [12][24] - The company will not pay a Q3 supplemental dividend as the measurement test cap exceeded 50% of this quarter's excess available earnings [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Credit quality concerns regarding the watch list - Management acknowledged a slight increase in the watch list to 14% but emphasized a proactive approach to monitoring investments and maintaining transparency about portfolio health [29][30][31] Question: Impact of tariffs on portfolio companies - Management indicated that the direct impact of tariffs on the portfolio remains low and that companies are proactively managing tariff exposure through pricing power and alternative sourcing strategies [36][38][40] Question: Future portfolio growth and repositioning - Management stated that while they do not expect significant net portfolio growth, they are focused on rotating acquired assets into Crescent-originated opportunities without sacrificing diversification [42][46][49] Question: Evaluation of unitranche investments - Management noted that unitranche investments remain a small part of the portfolio, and they are opportunistic in pursuing such opportunities, ensuring control over the capital structure [52][54] Question: Operating leverage from declining energy prices - Management clarified that fuel input costs are not a significant component of the cost structure for most borrowers, and while some benefits may arise, they do not expect it to materially impact portfolio performance [57][58] Question: Second lien loan strategy - Management confirmed that second lien loans will not become a large component of the portfolio, maintaining a focus on first lien investments due to risk considerations [61][62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross investment income for Q2 2025 was $13.1 million, up from $11.9 million in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in income generation [14] - Net investment income remained consistent at $7.7 million or $0.34 per share, maintaining the same dividend rate for four consecutive quarters [7][14] - Net assets at the end of the quarter were $302 million, with a net asset value per share of $13.23 [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company funded $39.1 million in new debt investments during Q2, with 100% being senior secured and 88% floating rate [15] - The portfolio consists of 33 companies, with 22% invested in non-cannabis sectors [11][12] - The average debt investment position size is 3% of the investment portfolio, and 76% of the portfolio has floating interest rates [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The current pipeline includes approximately $780 million in potential debt transactions, with $649 million in cannabis opportunities and $131 million in non-cannabis investments [16][19] - The company has approximately $125.4 million in liquidity, providing ample capacity for future investments [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on lending to cannabis companies and underserved markets, positioning itself uniquely in the BDC sector [5][10] - The strategy includes underwriting investments based on current cash flow and collateral profiles, rather than relying on potential regulatory changes [9][10] - The company aims to grow returns to shareholders as it scales its platform and navigates market conditions [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the cannabis market, noting that potential rescheduling could lead to increased cash flow for borrowers and higher valuations [8][9] - There is a belief that the current environment will continue to provide opportunities for growth, despite regulatory uncertainties [9][19] - The company remains focused on originating loans that deliver attractive risk-adjusted returns [20] Other Important Information - The company has no non-accrual loans, contrasting with the industry average of 3.8% [7] - The weighted average yield on debt investments is 16.1%, significantly higher than the average BDC yield of 11.8% [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overview on market sentiment about the BDC sector - Management noted that the BDC sector has been impacted by uncertainty around tariffs but is insulated from broader market dynamics due to its niche strategy [22][23] Question: Changes under the Trump administration regarding BDC regulation - Management indicated that it is too early to speculate on potential regulatory changes under the new administration [24] Question: Changes in pipeline and opportunities since becoming Chicago Atlantic BDC - The company has gained access to a broader pipeline of non-cannabis opportunities and identified new types of cannabis opportunities, including restructurings and ESOP transactions [25][26][27] Question: Impact of rescheduling news on potential clients - Management observed that operators are more optimistic and seeking capital earlier to execute growth strategies, rather than pausing for potential regulatory changes [28][29]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net asset value per share was $11.18, reflecting a 1% decline quarter over quarter [25] - Net investment income for the quarter was $0.28 per share, an increase from $0.25 per share in the prior quarter [12][27] - The weighted average yield at fair value remained unchanged at 10.1% [14] - The net leverage ratio was 1.29 times at quarter end, up from 1.24 times as of March 31 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross originations were nearly $200 million, with net originations of $32 million [6] - Barings originated positions now make up 95% of the BBDC portfolio at fair value, up from 76% in 2022 [13] - Non-accrual rate improved to 50 basis points at fair value, well below industry averages [13][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio consists of 74% secured investments, with approximately 71% being first lien securities [21] - Interest coverage within the portfolio was 2.4 times, above industry averages [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on core middle market investments due to lower leverage and stronger risk-adjusted returns [6] - Emphasis on sectors that perform resiliently across economic environments to provide stability [6] - The company maintains a cautious optimism about the broader economy and is well-positioned to withstand various economic developments [7][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The economic outlook remains uncertain, but the company believes its durable portfolio construction will help navigate future challenges [16] - Management noted that macroeconomic events have not historically produced widespread defaults, with idiosyncratic risks being more significant [20] - The company expects increased M&A activity in the latter half of the year based on current market indicators [11] Other Important Information - The Board declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.26 per share, consistent with the prior quarter [14][30] - The company repurchased 100,000 shares during the quarter, totaling 250,000 shares under the current plan [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the profile of sales to Jakafi and overall leverage? - Management indicated that Jakafi has ample liquidity to absorb incremental investments and that they will continue to run leverage towards the higher end of their range due to strong credit quality [35][40] Question: How does the new name ScreenVision fit into the Barings platform? - Management noted that there is significant collaboration across investment teams, with a centralized sourcing process [43][44] Question: What percentage of originations were follow-ons versus new borrowers? - Approximately 60-70% of originations were follow-ons for existing borrowers [50] Question: How is the pipeline looking after the second quarter? - Management expressed optimism about forward visibility on origination, despite the same economic outlook as previous years [52] Question: How sustainable is the dividend given the forward curve? - Management expressed confidence in earning the dividend based on the current SAFR curve, despite potential changes due to rate cuts [60][62] Question: What is the current state of credit in the cycle? - Management indicated a constructive setup for credit, with modest growth and stable inflation, but acknowledged uncertainty in the future [63] Question: How is the share repurchase program being managed? - Management explained that tactical elements and blackout periods influence share repurchase activity, but they remain focused on shareholder accretive activities [68][70] Question: Is August seeing increased deal activity? - Management noted that while the pipeline is higher, it is too early to declare August as one of the busiest months [72][75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated $0.39 per share of net investment income for the quarter on both a GAAP basis and after adjusting for asset acquisition accounting [6][12] - Total investment income for the second quarter was $67 million, significantly up from the prior quarter due to a higher investment portfolio balance [11] - Net asset value as of June 30 was $16.43 per share, down from $16.63 per share as of March 31 [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - CGBD funded $376 million of investments into new and existing borrowers, the highest level since its IPO in 2017 [7] - Total investments at CGBD increased from $2.2 billion to $2.3 billion during the quarter after adjusting for $150 million of investments sold to a joint venture [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that spreads in the private credit space remain at historically tight levels, which may present a headwind to near-term earnings [9] - Less than 5% of the portfolio has material direct risk from tariffs, indicating a stable exposure to trade policy changes [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on overall credit performance and portfolio diversification while maintaining target leverage [9] - The management is optimistic about rebuilding the pipeline for a busier end of the year and remains focused on sourcing transactions with significant equity cushions and conservative leverage profiles [8][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about increased deal activity in the second half of the year, particularly in Q4 and into 2026 [23][45] - The company is confident in its ability to invest in quality companies despite current market uncertainties [25][26] Other Important Information - The Board of Directors declared a third-quarter dividend of $0.40 per share, representing an attractive yield of over 11% based on the recent share price [12] - The company has an estimated $0.89 per share of spillover income generated over the last five years, supporting its ability to maintain the quarterly dividend [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: What has driven the tighter spreads over the past year? - Management indicated that deal activity was not as robust in the first half as hoped, but they are optimistic about increased deal activity in the second half of the year [22] Question: Are there concerns about the US economic environment going forward? - Management noted that certainty in tariff policy would be positive for the markets, and they are happy with the companies they are investing in [25][26] Question: What about the unrealized losses recorded in the quarter? - The unrealized losses were primarily company-specific, with a mix of credit issues and market technical factors [28][29] Question: How does the company view potential share buybacks? - Management is considering share buybacks based on stock trading relative to NAV but remains focused on growth [30] Question: What is the timeline for fully deploying the current credit fund? - The goal is to fully utilize the current credit fund within the next two to three quarters [56] Question: Is there a change in the quality of opportunities entering the pipeline? - Management stated that there has not been a material change in the quality of the companies they are able to invest in [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net investment income (NII) of $16.6 million or $0.45 per share for Q1 2025, down from $20.5 million or $0.55 per share in Q4 2024, primarily due to lower base rates, the roll-off of one-time items, and reduced dividend income from the Logan JV [5][23][24] - The increase in loans on non-accrual rose to 3.5% of debt investments at cost and fair value, with four new names added, representing less than 1.2% of the total portfolio at fair value [6][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gross deployment in Q1 totaled $105 million, with 98% in first lien investments, compared to approximately $78 million in exits, resulting in a net deployment of approximately $27 million [17] - The weighted average yield of income-producing securities at cost decreased by 50 basis points quarter over quarter to 10.4% [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a slowdown in M&A activity due to tariff announcements, leading to a backlog of deal activity [8] - The overall direct material exposure of the portfolio to tariffs is modest at 4%, with a focus on service businesses with low material costs [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on first lien loans, which represent 91% of the portfolio at fair value, and aims to invest in non-cyclical industries [11] - The management emphasized a disciplined credit underwriting approach and capital preservation, particularly in light of market volatility [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed that the current earnings reflect a near-term baseline, with potential tailwinds from asset-based facility repricing and rightsizing completed at the beginning of the quarter [6][7] - The company remains optimistic about its ability to weather potential volatility due to its diversified portfolio and strong relationships with private equity sponsors [20] Other Important Information - The company declared a regular dividend of $0.42 per share for Q2 2025, along with a special dividend related to undistributed taxable income [12][29] - The stockholders' equity was reported at $727 million, resulting in a net asset value per share of $19.62 [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the new accruals this quarter, specifically New Era of Technology - Management clarified that the mark reflects the latest view on earnings outlook and that the company has not yet restructured [34][36] Question: What is Crescent's approach to resolving non-accrual situations? - Management stated that the primary goal is to preserve capital, and they consider various options including restructuring or selling the company [42][44] Question: Can you explain the significant decline in the Logan dividend? - Management explained that the decline was due to timing mismatches in cash distributions and the impact of overcollateralization tests within the CLO structure [50][56] Question: What percentage of the portfolio consists of Crescent-led deals? - Management indicated that about 8% of the total fair value consists of acquired assets, while 92% are loans originated by Crescent [46] Question: What is the sentiment towards the overall market and outlook for spreads? - Management noted significant inflows into non-traded BDCs, which are putting pressure on spreads, but they remain selective in their investment approach [78][82]