近期，墨西哥比索延续上半年强劲表现，在本周创下逾十个月来的最高水平。然而，随着美国对多国加 征关税的暂缓措施即将于7月9日到期，市场对比索后续走势日益审慎。多家机构预测显示，当前高位运 行的比索未来一年或将温和回调。 连续升值动能减弱，回调预期升温 墨西哥比索自2024年底受贸易紧张局势影响大幅贬值后，进入持续回升通道。根据路透社发布的外汇市 场调查，2025年前半年比索已累计升值13.2%，成为拉美表现最强劲的货币之一。其兑美元汇率从去年 底的20以上水平升至目前的18.7左右。 路透调查对22位外汇专家的中值预测显示，比索未来12个月内或将温和贬值5.5%，汇率水平预计从7月 2日的18.72下行至19.80。 根据墨西哥央行发布的《2025年6月私人部门经济专家预期调查》，分析师中值预测比索将在年底贬至1 美元兑20.13比索，较当前水平贬值约7%，反映出市场对其中长期走势趋弱的普遍预期。 分析人士指出，比索回调预期的背后，反映出市场对全球贸易政策变化的担忧。美国对多国加征关税 的"冻结期"即将于7月9日到期，若重启关税，将可能引发新一轮贸易摩擦。 市场目前普遍聚焦7月9日这一关键节点。届时，美国政府是 ...

以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 晚点Auto . 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 当行业进入收缩期，大多数企业无法独善其身。 文 丨 赵宇 编辑 丨 龚方毅 最近几年，全球汽车产业开始面临电动化趋势放缓、需求萎缩、市场竞争加剧以及国际贸易环境不稳 定等一系列挑战。为应对挑战，多数海外汽车品牌不得不采取裁员、收缩业务等措施，以期实现降本 增效，等待新一轮产业扩张周期的到来。 我们通过梳理近一年海外车企的裁员信息发现：在头部海外车企和供应商已公布的裁员计划中，累计 涉及的员工总数已接近 10 万人，中国、北美、欧洲、日本等全球主要汽车市场均有涉及。 | 公司名称 | 裁员时间 | 涉及人数 | 裁员原因 | 涉及部门/地区 | 后续计划 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大众 | 2030年前 | 计划裁员3.5万人, | 成本削减、竞争加剧、 | 绝大部分 | 推进成本削减; | | | | 已裁7000人 | 排放罚款等 | 位于德国 | 暂不关闭德国工 | | 奔驰 | 2024年2月 | 中国区15%员工 ...

铜月度金属指数（MMI）呈现下行趋势，从3月至4月下降了4.23%。从目前的铜价来看，分析师们似乎 正在努力应对持续的贸易政策变化。 **贸易政策不确定，铜价走势波动** 过去几个月COMEX铜价经历了剧烈波动。价格先是在3月触及历史新高，之后在4月暴跌。到5月中 旬，价格进入震荡的横盘整理趋势。 关税问题持续推动市场。本月，市场主要是对美国与中国和英国最近达成的协议做出反应。贸易协议的 达成似乎缓解了人们的担忧，即近几个月宣布的广泛关税可能没有预期的那么极端，重新引发了人们对 全球经济的乐观情绪。 **美元企稳** 国际铜研究组织（ICSG）认为自己并不特别担心供应问题。与此前有关铜市场即将出现供应短缺的担 忧相反，该组织预计在2025年和2026年，市场仍将保持供应过剩的态势。 该组织指出，围绕国际贸易政策的不确定性可能削弱全球经济前景，并对铜需求产生负面影响，与该组 织2024年9月的预估相比，使用增长率已被下调。因此，2025年过剩量预期增长一倍多。考虑到2024年 积累的过剩，随着贸易政策的演变，将给市场留下很大的缓冲空间。 **美中贸易关系继续引发不确定性** 尽管原材料市场依然吃紧，但全球经济增 ...

以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ，作者CFC商品策略研究 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验，观念，陈规或惯例的视角，提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该 是一次历险，也许是一次漂流，它并不把你带到任何一个安全的港湾去，但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖 边临渊回眸，另做选择的逻辑启发，或自我反讽的邀请。 文 | 魏鑫 来源 | CFC商品策略研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 中美发布日内瓦联合声明以来，商品市场整体呈现反弹态势，多品种价格回升至4月初水 平。本轮行情的驱动有需求端预期回暖的因素，同时部分品种供给收缩驱动反弹，如 PX-PTA、苯乙烯、氧化铝等。 短期市场可能逐步消化90天暂缓关税窗口期内出现的需求端主导的强现实，而在后续的 商品交易中，宏观上仍依赖于贸易政策变化、美国货币政策调整，以及国内的政策实 效。而微观层面，需要注意交付周期较短商品的需求集中释放带来的变化，以及供应端 收缩品种的"利润-复产"决策的调整。 而对于"订单-采购原料-生产-交付"这一流程来说，部分工序复杂的商品难以实现快速交 付，美国对此类商品的需求未必会在关税缓征期内明显增长。对于交付周期较短的如 ...

Capital Southwest (CSWC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call May 15, 2025 11:00 AM ET Speaker0 Thank you for joining today's Capital Southwest Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Call. Participating on the call today are Michael Sarner, Chief Executive Officer Chris Reberger, Chief Financial Officer Josh Weinstein, Chief Investment Officer and Amy Baker, Executive Vice President Accounting. I will now turn the call over to Amy Baker. Speaker1 Thank you. I would like to remind everyone that in the cours ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, down from the previous year but exceeding management's expectations due to stronger sales volume and Fit to Win benefits [4][14] - Shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year, reflecting a gradual recovery in market conditions [4][6] - The Fit to Win program generated savings of $61 million in the first quarter, contributing significantly to better-than-expected results [4][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Segment operating profit improved significantly in The Americas, driven by strong demand and strategic initiatives, while results in Europe trended down due to lower net prices and temporary production downtime [4][15] - In The Americas, sales volume grew nearly 4%, with strong performance in beer and spirits, while Europe saw a nearly 4% increase in volume but faced competitive pricing pressures [8][42] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall shipments were up 4.4% in the first quarter, with growth driven by inventory rebuilding and contract negotiations [6][7] - Volumes increased across nearly all markets, particularly in beer and spirits, with Europe experiencing a rebound in customer inventory rebuilding [8][9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting adjusted earnings to improve between 50% and 85% from 2024 [5][17] - The Fit to Win program aims to reduce total enterprise costs and optimize the network to support future profitable growth, with a target of $250 million in savings for 2025 [10][11] - The company is focused on improving its competitive position through strategic initiatives and is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities arising from changes in global trade policies [21][23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding the operating environment, noting potential headwinds from new tariff policies but maintaining a stable volume outlook for the year [9][18] - The company is addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments and is consulting with local works councils regarding long-term restructuring actions [8][9] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in reducing inventory, down approximately $225 million from the same time last year, and is on track to meet its year-end target of less than fifty days of inventory [16] - The company is leveraging its extensive glass network in the U.S. to enhance competitiveness, particularly in light of tariff dynamics affecting aluminum and imports from China [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about any pre-buy effects and the volume impact? - Management indicated that pre-buying had a limited impact on the stronger volume in the first quarter, with most strength attributed to underlying demand [27][28] Question: Are we looking at negative volumes in April? - Management noted a slight decline in volumes in April, adjusted for Easter, but emphasized that the overall outlook remains stable for the year [29][30] Question: Can you provide insights on volume progress by end market? - Management reported strong volume growth across most categories in The Americas, with beer and spirits performing particularly well, while Europe saw mixed results [42][44] Question: What are the drivers behind the realignment of French operations? - Management explained that the focus is on aligning assets with market opportunities, particularly in the premium segment, while continuing to invest in key markets like France [48][49] Question: Have you seen signs of aluminum tariffs impacting customer conversations? - Management acknowledged that while there is potential for shifts towards glass due to aluminum tariffs, it is still early to see significant impacts [52][53] Question: How do you expect net price headwinds to trend throughout the year? - Management indicated that net price headwinds are expected to be front-end loaded, with a moderation anticipated in the second half of the year [60][61] Question: How are you managing energy costs and raw materials? - Management confirmed favorable long-term energy contracts and emphasized a value chain approach to manage raw material costs effectively [74][78]

隆基绿能董事长钟宝申认为，光伏行业已进入中低速的增长阶段，2025年的市场发展有较多不确定因素，新 增装机可能是没有增量的一年。 "2024年业绩的大幅下降，外因是行业供需失衡，开工率不足，光伏产品价格持续下跌。行业技术快速迭代， PERC 产能淘汰带来资产减值。内因是我们经营管理中诸多失策的积累。"在隆基绿能（601012.SH）2024年 财报《致股东的信》中，公司董事长钟宝申如是表示。 2024年，隆基绿能实现营收825.8亿元，同比下降36.23%；净亏损86.2亿元，上年同期实现净利润107.5亿元。 2025年一季度，隆基绿能净利润为亏损14.36亿元，上年同期亏损23.5亿元，同比减亏38.89%。 谈及公司业绩亏损的原因，隆基绿能管理层今日在2024年度暨2025年第一季度业绩说明会上公开表示，受行 业深度洗牌影响，公司主营产品硅片和组件价格分别同比下降61%和39%。"光伏产品价格下行、技术迭代导 致计提资产减值损失87亿元、参股硅料企业发生投资损失4.86亿元等因素综合，导致2024年公司经营业绩出 现亏损。" 据中国光伏行业协会数据，2024年多晶硅、硅片、电池、组件产量同比增长均超10 ...