2025 年 08 月 25 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 147 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 Q2 毛利率创新高，Q4 有望开启"一车双能"周期--小鹏汽车-W/乘用车(09868/212805) 点评报告（港股美股） 风险偏好提升，两融明显提速--资产配置报告 主营业务稳步发展，控股合并完善供应链条--圣农发展/养殖业(002299/211107) 公司点评 业绩同比高增，养殖成本持续优化--牧原股份/养殖业(002714/211107) 公司点评 魔芋延续高景气，Q2 毛销差同比增速转正--盐津铺子/休闲食品(002847/213408) 公司点评 下游需求持续回暖，2025 上半年公司归母净利润同比增加--国瓷材料/电子化学品Ⅱ(300285/212706) 公司点 评 Q2 归母净利润同比大增，两机订单保障持续增长动力--应流股份/通用设备(603308/216401) 公司动态研究 高端材料快速放量，上半年业绩同比高增--圣泉集团/塑料(605589/2122 ...

传媒/数字媒体 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 2025Q2 利润好于预期，AI 搜索改造广告短期承压 2025 年 08 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 85.000 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 119.40/73.250 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 2,408.58 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 2,337.64 | | 总股本(亿股) | 28.34 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 27.50 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 23.51 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 百度集团-SW 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《智能云同比增速加快，关注广告复 苏节奏—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2025.2.20 《广告业务短期承压，有待宏观复苏 及AI产品变现—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.11.24 《广告持续承压，关注 AI 产品重构及 智驾商业化—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.24 张可（分 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][20] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth with a revenue increase of 204% and a profit increase of 397% in the first half of 2025, driven by the success of its IP, particularly "THE MONSTERS" [1][9] - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 98.7 billion, 128.6 billion, and 154.0 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 215.7%, 30.3%, and 19.8% [4][16] - The company's overseas expansion is significant, with plans to open over 60 new stores in the second half of 2025, contributing to a substantial increase in international revenue [3][15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 138.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4%. Domestic and overseas revenues were 82.8 billion and 55.9 billion, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 135.2% and 439.6% [1][9] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.3%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the rising contribution from high-margin regions like the Americas [11][3] IP Development - The company has seen a continuous rise in IP popularity, with 13 IPs generating over 1 billion in revenue in the first half of 2025. Notable IPs include "THE MONSTERS," which generated 48.1 billion, and "MOLLY," which generated 13.6 billion, with respective growth rates of 668.0% and 73.5% [2][13] - New IPs like "星星人" are emerging rapidly, contributing 3.3 billion in revenue in the same period [2][13] Product Categories - The plush toy category has shown exceptional performance, with revenues of 51.8 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 94.8%. The company plans to enhance production capacity to meet demand [3][15] - The company has hosted successful events and exhibitions, such as "THE MONSTERS" themed exhibitions, which have further increased IP engagement and visibility [3][15] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 29.9 billion, 40.9 billion, and 50.7 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 129.3%, 36.8%, and 24.0% respectively [19][4] - The company’s operational efficiency is improving, with a projected sales expense ratio of 20%-21% and a management expense ratio of 5%-6% over the next three years [18][19]

传媒/数字媒体 快手-W（01024.HK） 2025 年 08 月 22 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/21 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 71.750 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 81.650/37.550 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 3,096.75 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 3,096.75 | | 总股本(亿股) | 43.16 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 43.16 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 69.87 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 快手-W 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《AI 赋能成效显著，可灵 AI 商业化 变现加速—港股公司信息更新报告》 -2025.5.30 《盈利能力提升，可灵AI商业化提速， 共同驱动增长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2025.3.27 《毛利率同比提升显著，短剧、AI、 出海持续发力 —港股公司信息更新 报告》-2024.11.23 Q2 经调整净利润大增，可灵 AI 商业价值加速释放 ——港股公司信息 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Guo En Holdings (stock code: 8121) announced a new share placement to raise approximately HKD 30 million, with net proceeds expected to be around HKD 27 million after expenses [1] - The placement involves issuing up to 5,000,000 new shares at a price of HKD 0.60 per share, which represents an 11.8% discount compared to the previous closing price of HKD 0.68 [1] - The new shares will account for approximately 20.0% of the existing issued share capital and about 16.7% of the enlarged share capital after the placement [1] Group 2 - The funds raised will primarily support the development of the company's healthcare business, including hiring talent, covering daily expenses, conducting marketing activities, and developing sales platforms [1] - The placement is conducted under a general mandate granted by the shareholders' meeting and is expected to be completed within five business days after the fulfillment of the placement agreement's conditions [1]

Market Performance - The digital media sector increased by 5.28% on August 18, with Mango Excellent Media leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03, up 0.85%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57, up 1.73% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Mango Excellent Media (300413) closed at 26.45, rising by 16.98% with a trading volume of 1.41 million shares and a transaction value of 3.71 billion [1] - Other notable performers include: - Zhangyue Technology (603533) at 21.19, up 3.47% [1] - Chuanwang Media (300987) at 19.92, up 3.21% [1] - Visual China (000681) at 21.30, up 2.90% [1] - Worth Buying (300785) at 35.29, up 2.47% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The digital media sector saw a net inflow of 273 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 110 million [2] - The sector experienced a net outflow of 383 million from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Mango Excellent Media had a net inflow of 291 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 268 million from speculative funds [3] - Visual China saw a net inflow of 6685.57 million from retail investors despite a net outflow from institutional and speculative funds [3] - Other stocks like Chuanwang Media and Zhangyue Technology also experienced mixed capital flows, with varying impacts from different investor types [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights the resilience at the bottom of the cycle, with the successful advancement of the Alashan Phase II project for Boyuan Chemical [4][7] - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, down 39% year-on-year [4][5] - The core product prices and gross margins for soda ash declined, but the increase in production and sales volume helped mitigate the impact of price drops [5][6] Group 2 - The company has successfully acquired multiple electronic gas projects, enhancing its position in the electronic gas market [9][10] - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.114 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.56%, while net profit decreased by 13.44% [9][10] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 26.37%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, but operating cash flow increased significantly by 84.34% [10] Group 3 - 361 Degrees reported H1 2025 revenue of 5.7 billion yuan, an increase of 11% year-on-year, with a net profit of 860 million yuan, also up 8.6% [12][13] - The e-commerce segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.82 billion yuan, a 45% increase year-on-year [13][14] - The company opened 49 new stores, enhancing its retail presence and brand image [15] Group 4 - Tencent Holdings reported Q2 2025 revenue of 184.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a net profit of 55.6 billion yuan, up 17% [17][18] - The gaming segment experienced a robust 22% year-on-year growth, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [18][19] - The marketing services business grew by 20% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for advertising within the WeChat ecosystem [19] Group 5 - The report indicates that the chromium salt industry is experiencing significant growth, with Zhihua Co. achieving H1 2025 revenue of 2.19 billion yuan, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [29][30] - The company’s gross margin improved to 28.81%, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management [29][30] - The effective release of production capacity contributed to a notable increase in sales volume, particularly in chromium oxide and alloy additives [32][33] Group 6 - Yonghe Co. reported H1 2025 revenue of 2.445 billion yuan, a 12.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 271 million yuan, up 140.82% [35][36] - The refrigerant segment benefited from favorable supply-demand dynamics, leading to a 26.02% increase in revenue [37] - The company is actively pursuing the development of fourth-generation refrigerants and high-end fluorinated fine chemicals [39] Group 7 - The coal industry showed signs of improvement, with July 2025 coal production at 380 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% [40][41] - The report notes that the overall coal production growth rate has slowed due to adverse weather conditions and regulatory checks [42] - The performance of major coal companies varied, with some showing production increases while others faced declines [42]

传媒/数字媒体 网易云音乐（09899.HK） 业绩延续高增长，曲库扩充与生态优化共驱成长 2025 年 08 月 15 日 方光照（分析师） fangguangzhao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030004 毛利率同比提升，经调整营业利润大增，看好核心主业，维持"买入"评级 2025H1 公司实现营业收入 38.3 亿元（同比-6%），归母净利润 18.9 亿元（同比+ 132.8%），经调整营业利润 9.1 亿元（同比+35%），经调整净利润 19.5 亿元（同 比+121%），毛利率为 36.4%（2024H1 为 35%），利润大增主要系公司 2025H1 确认递延所得税抵免 8.5 亿元并缩减广告费用。基于 2025H1 确认大额递延所得 税抵免，我们上调 2025-2027 年业绩预测，预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分 别为 29.5/24.5/29.5（前值为 18.1/20.1/22.2）亿元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 18.2/21.9/18.3 倍，我们看好订阅会员数稳健增长，规模效应释放驱动毛利率不断 提升，打开在线音乐业务成长空间，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Market Performance - The digital media sector increased by 1.03% on August 13, with a notable rise in the stock of Shengyibao, which gained 3.25% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the digital media sector showed varied performance, with Shengyibao closing at 21.91 and a trading volume of 393,900 shares, resulting in a transaction value of 887 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Zhidema, which closed at 35.26 with a 2.80% increase, and Mango Super Media, which closed at 22.66, up 1.93% [1] Capital Flow - The digital media sector experienced a net inflow of 53.98 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 29.69 million yuan [2] - The main stocks attracting institutional investment included Zhidema with a net inflow of 37.12 million yuan and Changyue Technology with 28.12 million yuan [3] Individual Stock Analysis - Zhidema had a significant institutional net inflow of 37.11 million yuan, but retail investors withdrew 48.24 million yuan [3] - Shengyibao also saw a net inflow of 19.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors withdrew 14.24 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The market showed a strong upward trend with an overall increase of 1.94% during the week of August 4-8, with micro-cap stocks, CSI 1000, and CSI Dividend leading the gains, while the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index had narrower increases [2][10] - The defense and military, non-ferrous metals, and machinery equipment sectors led the gains among 31 Shenwan industries, while retail, computing, and pharmaceutical sectors lagged [2][10] - The stock-bond yield spread decreased to 1.1%, indicating a divergence in valuations, with the valuation dispersion index rising by 2.7% [3][25] Group 2 - The film box office in 2025 is projected to exceed 35 billion, with new films scheduled for release, contributing to market enthusiasm [4][47] - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games will take place in Beijing from August 15-17, which is expected to catalyze interest in the robotics sector [4][48] - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite internet group by China is accelerating the pace of satellite deployment, which is crucial for the development of 6G networks [4][49] Group 3 - The report highlights the expansion of growth sectors, including defense and military (aerospace equipment, military electronics), pharmaceuticals (medical devices), AI (semiconductors, IT services), and automotive (auto parts, passenger vehicles) [4][51] - There is a focus on dividend stocks and precious metals, with attention to potential opportunities following corrections in dividend sectors and the impact of U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations on precious metals [4][51]