好 究 所 行业轮动 [F策略周报 (20250922-20250928) 证券研究报告·策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht.com.cn 2025年9月29日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF 名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 13.51 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (58.23%) | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the recent performance of the Media ETF (512980), which has seen a net buying trend in financing activities over the past few trading days [1][4]. - On August 21, the financing buy-in amounted to 8.4722 million yuan, while the financing repayment was 7.7548 million yuan, resulting in a net financing purchase of 717,500 yuan [1]. - The financing balance reached 32.2079 million yuan, with a cumulative net buying of 2.0396 million yuan over the last three trading days [1][4]. Group 2 - In the last 20 trading days, there were 11 days with net financing purchases, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1]. - The margin trading balance on August 21 was 37.8303 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 2.04% from the previous day [4]. - The margin trading balance has shown a consistent upward trend, with notable increases in previous trading days, such as a 14.15% rise on August 15 [4]. Group 3 - On the same day, the short selling activity recorded a net sell of 52,100 shares, with a total short selling balance of 5.9184 million shares [2]. - In the last 20 trading days, there were also 11 days with net short selling, suggesting a mixed sentiment in the market [2]. - The short selling balance has fluctuated, with a notable net sell of 21,740 shares on August 15 [3].

证券之星消息，8月19日，传媒ETF（512980）融资买入1243.62万元，融资偿还1163.21万元，融资净买 入80.42万元，融资余额3097.25万元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计650.69万元，近20个交易日中有11 个交易日出现融资净买入。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-19 | | 80.42万 | 3097.25万 | | | 2025-08-18 | | 131.94万 | 3016.83万 | | | 2025-08-15 | | 438.34万 | 2881.24万 | | | 2025-08-14 | | -180.17万 | 2442.90万 | | | 2025-08-13 | | -249.08万 | 2623.08万 | | 融资融券：融资余额增加反映市场做多情绪强化，融资余额减少反映市场观望情绪或者看空情绪强化； 相应的，融券余额增加反映市场看空情绪增强，融券余额减少反映市场观望情绪增强或者看多情绪增 强。需注意的是，由于融资融券的财务杠 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a modest increase on Monday, with the CSI All Share Index rising by nearly 1.4% and a trading volume of 2.7 trillion, marking the third-highest in history [1] - The surge in the North Stock Exchange 50 indicates the emergence of market bubbles, with the influx of funds primarily from short-term investors [1][3] - Without significant overnight positive news, market volatility is expected to increase on Tuesday [1] Themes of Market Performance Economic Bull Market - The economic bull market is characterized by strong institutional support, focusing on three main sectors: Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, rare earths and non-ferrous metals, and Nvidia-related concepts (CPO, liquid cooling, PCB) [4] - The Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals sector is noted for its minimal external dependencies, making it a potentially attractive investment if market adjustments occur [5] - The CPO, liquid cooling, and PCB sectors are more reliant on external factors, with Nvidia's sustained performance being crucial for their success [7] Popular Bull Market - The popular bull market is driven by retail investors, focusing on sectors like real estate, brokerage firms, and technology [8] - Stocks such as Dongfang Caifu and Tonghuashun have shown significant short-term gains, with performance metrics indicating strong upward trends over various time frames [9] - The brokerage sector has underperformed, but there is hope for it to become a long-term investment option if trading volumes stabilize above 2.5 trillion [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The "small science and technology" sector has been highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant returns observed in indices like the Science and Technology 200 and 100 [13] - The artificial intelligence segment within the science and technology sector has gained traction due to its popularity, contrasting with the more institutionally driven sectors [15] - Other sectors such as coal and media have shown mixed performance, with coal stocks like Shenhua experiencing volatility despite positive merger news [19] Conclusion - The current market dynamics reflect a preference for sectors with clear growth potential and investor interest, with both economic and popular bull markets showing signs of resilience [22] - Future market movements are anticipated to be more volatile, with a focus on new positive developments that could influence investor sentiment [23]

Group 1 - The cultural media sector experienced a short-term surge, with Ciweng Media hitting the daily limit, and Mango Super Media and Huazhi Digital Media rising over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Jishi Media, Huace Film & TV, Haikan Co., New Media Co., and Tibet Tourism also saw increases [1] - The Media ETF (512980) rose by 1.2%, with a trading volume of 11.1348 million yuan [1]

证券之星消息，7月29日，传媒ETF（512980）融资买入1512.13万元，融资偿还1345.37万元，融资净买 入166.76万元，融资余额4528.36万元，近3个交易日已连续净买入累计792.87万元，近20个交易日中有 14个交易日出现融资净买入。 | 交易日 | 融资净买入(元) | | 融资余额(元) | 占流通市值比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-07-29 | | 166.76万 | 4528.36万 | | | 2025-07-28 | | 1.06万 | 4361.59万 | | | 2025-07-25 | | 625.05万 | 4360.54万 | | | 2025-07-24 | | 44.56万 | 3735.48万 | | | 2025-07-23 | | 48.45万 | 3690.92万 | | 融券方面，当日融券卖出51.15万股，融券偿还16.45万股，融券净卖出34.7万股，融券余量561.89万股。 | 交易日 | 殿) 田園虎坊 | 融券会量(股) | 融券余额(元) | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - A total of 241 ETF funds experienced net inflows from financing, while 28 funds saw net outflows from securities lending [1] - Significant inflows were observed in specific ETFs, including the Government Bond ETF (511520.SH) and the National Debt ETF (511010.SH), with net inflows of 8.29 billion and 3.17 billion respectively [1][3] - Conversely, notable outflows were recorded in ETFs such as the CSI 500 ETF (510500.SH) and the CSI 1000 ETF (512100.SH), with net outflows of 1.24 billion and 1.05 billion respectively [1][5] Financing Inflows - 62 ETFs had financing net inflows exceeding 5 million, with the top five being: - Government Bond ETF: 8.29 billion - National Debt ETF: 3.17 billion - City Investment Bond ETF: 2.76 billion - Short-term Bond ETF: 1.50 billion - Sci-Tech 50 ETF: 1.37 billion [1][3][10] Securities Lending Outflows - 6 ETFs had securities lending net outflows exceeding 5 million, with the top five being: - CSI 500 ETF: 1.24 billion - CSI 1000 ETF: 1.05 billion - CSI 300 ETF: 1.055 billion - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF: 801.58 million - CSI 2000 ETF: 526.18 million [1][5][12] Recent Trends - 91 ETFs have seen continuous financing net inflows, with the Hong Kong Securities ETF leading with a net inflow of 6.11 billion over the past 7 days [1][7] - In terms of continuous securities lending net outflows, 4 ETFs were noted, with the Innovation Drug ETF experiencing a net outflow of 45.47 million over 3 days [1][8] Long-term Observations - Over the past 5 days, significant financing net inflows were recorded in: - Government Bond ETF: 4.48 billion - Hong Kong Securities ETF: 4.43 billion - Hang Seng Technology ETF: 2.12 billion [1][8][10] - Conversely, the top 5 ETFs with net outflows over the same period included: - CSI 500 ETF: 1.34 billion - CSI 1000 ETF: 1.22 billion [1][10][12]

每经记者：肖芮冬 每经编辑：叶峰 天赐良基日报第686期 一、今日基金新闻速览 1、泓德基金李娇履新督察长 近日，泓德基金发布公告，原督察长李晓春退休离任，李娇履新督察长。履历显示，李娇2015年3月加入泓德基金，曾任公司副总经理。 2、债券ETF突破4000亿元关口 根据Wind统计，截至7月11日，全市场存续的29只债券ETF估值规模3987.89亿元，加上10只新成立的科创债ETF，债券ETF总规模已达到4278亿元。 3、中证协公示首份网下专业机构"白名单" 近日，中国证券业协会正式发布2024年网下专业机构投资者"白名单"拟定名单并启动公示。富国基金、广发基金、国泰基金、汇添富基金、南方基金、招商 基金等21家机构入选网下专业机构投资者"白名单"拟定名单。 二、知名基金经理最新动态 2、ETF主题机会 在国家相关政策的引导下，各地纷纷出台支持人形机器人发展的政策文件，制定了发展路径及相应保障措施，以推动人形机器人产业创新发展，实现产业聚 集，抢占人形机器人产业化机遇。国内机器人市场规模有望在2045年后达10万亿元级，不断上升的市场空间也将触发相关材料的需求增长。可关注机器人 ETF等产品。 近日， ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Media Index (399971) has seen a strong increase of 2.34%, with notable gains from stocks such as Kyeing Network (002517) up 10.03%, Giant Network (002558) up 9.39%, and G-bits (603444) up 6.19% [1] - The Media ETF (159805) rose by 2.48%, with the latest price reported at 1.2 yuan [1] - In May, the total revenue of the Chinese gaming market reached 28.051 billion yuan, indicating a clear positive trend in the industry fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Media Index tracks 50 large-cap listed companies from sectors including marketing and advertising, cultural entertainment, and digital media [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 48.11% of the total index, with companies like Focus Media (002027) and Giant Network (002558) among the leaders [2]

Group 1 - The gaming sector's strong performance has positively influenced the entire cultural media industry, with significant increases in related ETFs [1] - Four film and media-related ETFs saw half-day gains exceeding 2%, with the leading performers being the film ETFs [1] - The film ETF (516620) rose by 3.87%, while the film ETF (159852) increased by 2.7%, indicating robust market interest [3] Group 2 - The media ETFs (159805 and 512980) also experienced gains of 2.34% and 2.31% respectively, with the latter having a substantial scale of 31.56 million shares [5] - The overall share volume of media ETFs has decreased significantly this year, with the media ETF (512980) losing 597 million shares, reflecting a year-to-date change rate of -15.91% [2] - The media ETF (159805) saw a reduction of 8.8 million shares, with a year-to-date change rate of -43.04%, indicating a notable decline in share volume [2] Group 3 - The IP economy is gaining traction in the summer season, with positive developments expected from policy, industry, and corporate levels by Q2 2025 [3] - The card game sector's progress in the Hong Kong market has drawn attention to the card game segment within the cultural media IP sector [3] - The Zhongzheng Film Theme Index selects sample stocks from film content providers, distributors, and other beneficiaries in the A-share market [3][4]