Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has shown improvement in profitability and is expected to benefit from industry differentiation, leading to a positive outlook for future performance [4]. - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 11.1% year-on-year growth in Q3 2025, with an adjusted net profit increase of 5% [4]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in Q4 performance due to the positive effects of industry-wide price increases and a focus on reducing competition [4]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 38,419 million - 2024: 44,281 million - 2025E: 48,669 million - 2026E: 54,593 million - 2027E: 61,181 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 10% for 2025, 12% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2025E: 95.40 billion - 2026E: 101.49 billion - 2027E: 113.99 billion - The adjusted net profit growth rates are projected at -6% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in business volume, with Q3 2025 achieving 95.73 billion items, a 9.8% year-on-year growth [4]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the express delivery industry is experiencing a decline in growth rates, with varying performance among competitors [4]. - The company is expected to regain market share and profitability as the industry landscape evolves, supported by its strong asset base and scale advantages [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to maintain a competitive edge through continuous investment and operational efficiency improvements [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7] - The report highlights that the company's volume and profit both increased in Q3, driven by industry-wide efforts to reduce competition and improve pricing, suggesting continued improvement in Q4 [7] - The report notes a downward trend in the express delivery industry's growth rate, with ZTO Express expected to gain market share and improve profitability amid increasing industry differentiation [7] - The profit forecast for ZTO Express has been raised, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 now at 9.54 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 6%, and 12% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 48.669 billion yuan - 2026E: 54.593 billion yuan - 2027E: 61.181 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion yuan - 2024: 10.150 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.540 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.149 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.399 billion yuan - The report indicates a net asset return rate of 14.52% for 2023, projected to decline to 13.33% in 2024, before gradually increasing to 15.27% by 2027 [6][7]