Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7] - The report highlights that the company's volume and profit both increased in Q3, driven by industry-wide efforts to reduce competition and improve pricing, suggesting continued improvement in Q4 [7] - The report notes a downward trend in the express delivery industry's growth rate, with ZTO Express expected to gain market share and improve profitability amid increasing industry differentiation [7] - The profit forecast for ZTO Express has been raised, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 now at 9.54 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 6%, and 12% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 48.669 billion yuan - 2026E: 54.593 billion yuan - 2027E: 61.181 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion yuan - 2024: 10.150 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.540 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.149 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.399 billion yuan - The report indicates a net asset return rate of 14.52% for 2023, projected to decline to 13.33% in 2024, before gradually increasing to 15.27% by 2027 [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the new national standard for sterilized milk marks a significant upgrade in China's dairy industry, transitioning from a reliance on reconstituted milk to a focus on fresh milk as the sole ingredient, thereby enhancing product quality and consumer trust [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new national standard prohibits the use of reconstituted milk in sterilized milk, mandating that only fresh milk be used as the sole raw material [1][2]. - This regulatory change aims to improve transparency and consumer choice, reducing the confusion between "pure milk" and "reconstituted milk" [3][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The new standard has led to simpler product labels, with a noticeable increase in products marketed as "100% fresh milk" [2]. - The demand for fresh milk is expected to rise, benefiting domestic dairy farming and increasing farmers' income [7][8]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The implementation of the new standard is seen as a test of the entire dairy supply chain's capability, particularly in sourcing high-quality fresh milk [7]. - Larger dairy companies with established supply chains are likely to thrive, while smaller companies may struggle due to their reliance on external sources [8]. Group 4: Quality and Production - China's fresh milk production capacity has significantly improved, with 40.794 million tons of milk produced in 2024 and a 100% pass rate in quality inspections [4][5]. - The new standard is expected to enhance the overall quality of dairy products, promoting higher standards in production processes and consumer satisfaction [6][7].