2025 年 08 月 25 日 硝酸、硫酸等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替代、纯 内需、高股息等方向 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 6.3 18.0 48.0 沪深 300 6.1 12.8 31.6 市场表现 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：工业级碳 酸锂、硫酸等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2025-08-18 2、《基础化工行业周报：(磷酸)五 氧化二磷、尿素等涨幅居前，建议 关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等 方向》2025-08-11 3、《基础化工行业周报：环氧氯丙 烷、(磷酸)五氧化二磷等涨幅居 前，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、 高股息等方向》2025-08-07 ▌硝酸、硫酸等涨幅居前，合成氨、丁酮等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：液氯（华东地区，866.67 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $70 per barrel in 2025, which supports the outlook for companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields [6][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [20]. - It highlights specific sectors such as the tire industry, which is expected to perform well due to global positioning and tariff experiences [20]. - The report also identifies opportunities in import substitution for chemical products like lubricant additives and special coatings [20]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in natural gas (up 14.76%), hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), and synthetic ammonia (up 5.24%) [17][18]. - Conversely, products like adipic acid and coal tar saw notable declines, with adipic acid down 7.53% [17][18]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, indicating a positive outlook for firms like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with projected EPS growth [10]. - It lists several companies with strong dividend yields, such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group, which are expected to attract investor interest [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC, highlighting their high dividend characteristics [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic demand, high dividend stocks, and import substitution in the chemical industry, especially in light of the recent stabilization of international oil prices [6][17]. - It notes that the international oil prices have shown a slight increase, with WTI crude oil priced at $64.58 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.47 per barrel as of June 6, 2025, indicating a positive outlook for companies with high dividend yields [6][17]. - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance across different sub-sectors, with some areas like the tire industry showing better-than-expected results [20]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as natural gas (up 14.76%) and hydrochloric acid (up 9.39%), while products like adipic acid and coal tar have seen notable declines [17][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings, as well as companies involved in chemical fertilizers and coal chemical industries [8][20]. Price Movements - The report details the fluctuations in chemical product prices, noting that while some products have rebounded, others continue to decline, reflecting the overall weak performance of the industry [20][28]. - It mentions that the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high supply pressures and weak demand, particularly in the urea and compound fertilizer markets [30][31]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth for companies like Xinyangfeng and Senqilin, with respective PE ratios suggesting attractive valuations [10]. - It emphasizes the strong dividend yields of leading companies in the chemical sector, making them appealing investment opportunities in the current market environment [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in natural gas (6.81%) and paraxylene (5.30%), while synthetic ammonia and coal tar experienced notable declines [4][20]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets due to the current market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainties [6][22]. Summary by Sections Price Movements - Major price increases this week include natural gas (6.81%), paraxylene (5.30%), and urea (4.86%), while significant declines were seen in synthetic ammonia (-4.35%) and hydrochloric acid (-4.76%) [4][20][22]. Market Analysis - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's recent production cuts on international oil prices, which have stabilized around $61.02 per barrel for WTI and $63.91 for Brent, with expectations of a central price around $70 in 2025 [6][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical products that can replace imports due to tariff impacts, particularly in lubricants and specialty coatings [8][22]. Company Recommendations - Specific companies recommended for investment include Sinopec, China National Petroleum, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are expected to benefit from high dividend yields [6][22]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the tire industry, suggesting companies like Senqcia and Sailun Tire as potential investments following recent price corrections [8][22]. Sector Performance - The overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - However, certain sectors like tires, lubricants, and coatings are showing better-than-expected performance, warranting continued attention [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Senqilin, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Sailun Tire, Tongkun, Zhenhua, and Guangxin [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities in the chemical industry due to recent OPEC production cuts and stabilizing international oil prices [5][21]. - The report highlights that while some chemical products have seen price increases, the overall industry remains weak due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices have shown mixed trends, with WTI at $63.02 per barrel and Brent at $66.87 per barrel as of April 25, 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.57% and 1.60% respectively [5][22]. - The domestic gasoline market has seen a slight decrease in prices, with average prices for gasoline and diesel dropping by 0.69% and 0.41% respectively [23]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted for products such as polymer MDI (up 7.64%) and diammonium phosphate (up 3.57%), while coal tar and sulfur saw declines of 11.11% and 9.72% respectively [20][21]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is experiencing a mixed performance across different sectors, with some like the tire and lubricant industries performing better than expected [21][32]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings, as domestic products gain market share due to tariff impacts [8][21]. - It also highlights the resilience of the tire industry amid trade tensions, suggesting companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire as potential investment opportunities [21][32]. Company Focus - Specific companies are highlighted for their strong dividend yields and market positions, including Sinopec, CNOOC, and others in the chemical sector with around 5% dividend yields [21][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [9]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur and urea, suggesting continued attention on the crude oil, titanium dioxide, and tire sectors [1][6]. - The impact of U.S. tariff policies has led to a rapid decline in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude prices dropping by 10.63% and 10.93% respectively [6][22]. - The chemical sector is experiencing mixed performance, with some sub-sectors like tires and upstream mining showing strong results, while others are under pressure due to capacity expansions and weak demand [7][21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report discusses the influence of U.S. tariffs on crude oil prices and recommends focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies like Sinopec and CNOOC [6][22]. - It notes that the chemical product prices are rebounding as downstream demand improves, with significant increases in sulfur (9.17%) and urea (7.53%) [19][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying leading companies in sub-sectors that are likely to see valuation recovery, such as Wanhua Chemical and Longbai Group [8][21]. Price Movements - The report details the price movements of various chemical products, highlighting both increases and decreases in prices across different categories [19][21]. - It notes that while some products like sulfur and urea have seen price increases, others like methyl isocyanate and domestic naphtha have experienced declines [5][19]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating expected EPS growth and PE ratios for 2023 to 2025, with a consistent "Buy" rating across the board [9]. - Companies highlighted include Senqcia, Sinopec, and Yanguang Chemical, all of which are expected to show positive earnings growth in the coming years [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur and sulfuric acid, suggesting continued attention on the crude oil, titanium dioxide, and tire sectors [1][5]. - The report notes that while many chemical sub-sectors have underperformed due to capacity expansion and weak demand, certain sectors like tires, upstream mining, and titanium dioxide have exceeded expectations [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in specific sub-sectors that exhibit strong cost advantages and stable competitive landscapes [20][21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - International oil prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent decreases in gasoline and diesel prices in local markets [21][22]. - The report indicates that downstream demand remains weak, impacting various chemical markets, including propane and polyethylene [25][27]. - The report suggests that the tire industry, upstream mining, and titanium dioxide sectors are expected to perform well in the upcoming demand season [20][21]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in sulfur (up 16.44%) and sulfuric acid (up 12.86%), while natural gas saw a decline of 8.22% [19][20]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of price trends across various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][21]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report lists key companies to watch, including Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Longbai Group, and others, highlighting their potential for valuation recovery [20][21]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023 to 2025 are provided for several companies, indicating a positive outlook for many [8].