华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：截至2025-12-26收盘，布伦特原油价格为60.64美元/桶，相较上 周+0.28%；WTI原油价格为56.74美元/桶，相较上周+0.39%。预计2025年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美 金。鉴于当前国际局势不确定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价 的中国石化等。 来源：中国能源网 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 电池级碳酸锂、工业级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，硫磺、液氯等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：电池级碳酸锂（四川99.5%min，10.79%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min， 10.78%），PTA（华东，8.82%），二甲苯（东南亚FOB韩国，7.43%），PX（CFR东南亚，7.26%）， 丁二烯（东南亚CFR，6.83%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，5.42%），对硝基氯化苯（安徽地 区，4.65%），PET切片（华东，4.17%），涤纶短纤（1.4D*38mm华东，3.35%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：纯吡啶（华东地区，-2.67%），电石（华东地区，-3.17%），焦炭（山西市场价 格，-3.72%），LLDPE（余姚市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

Group 1 - The report highlights significant price increases in lithium battery electrolytes (17.86%), liquid chlorine (17.41%), and sulfur (13.88%) among others, while some products like pentasodium and trichloroethylene experienced notable declines [1][2][4] - The overall chemical industry remains in a weak position, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants have exceeded expectations [4] - Investment opportunities are suggested in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets, with specific recommendations for companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] Group 2 - The report indicates that Brent crude oil prices have increased by 0.87% to $63.75 per barrel, while WTI prices rose by 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel, with expectations for oil prices to stabilize around $65 [3] - The chemical industry is advised to focus on domestic demand and import substitution due to uncertainties in export growth, particularly in nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers which have stable domestic demand [4] - Companies like Sinopec are highlighted for their high asset quality and dividend yield, benefiting from lower raw material costs due to falling oil prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while some chemical products have seen price rebounds, many others continue to decline, reflecting a mixed performance in the chemical industry [1][4] - Significant price increases this week include Toluene (up 25.22%), Liquid Chlorine (up 13.73%), Methylcyclosiloxane (up 13.64%), and Sulfuric Acid (up 11.11%) [2][4] - Conversely, notable price declines were observed in products such as Butadiene (down 7.89%), Vinyl Acetate (down 4.35%), and Fuel Oil (down 3.80%) [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors, primarily due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in Glyphosate, fertilizers, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand and high dividend yields [4] - Specific recommendations include companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical in the Glyphosate sector, and Hualu Chemical, Xinyangfeng, and Yuntianhua in the fertilizer industry [4] Group 3 - The report highlights the potential for the Glyphosate industry to enter a favorable cycle due to decreasing inventory and recent price increases, especially as overseas markets begin to restock [4] - It also emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [4] - In the context of declining international oil prices, the report favors companies with high asset quality and dividend yields, particularly Sinopec, which stands to benefit from lower raw material costs [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [9][19]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant price increases in products such as toluene (up 25.22%) and liquid chlorine (up 13.73%), while products like butadiene and vinyl acetate saw notable declines [4][5][16]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current international oil price fluctuations [6][19]. - The report anticipates that the international oil price will stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material price declines [6][19]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets for potential investment opportunities [19]. - It recommends companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to enter a favorable economic cycle [19]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like China Heartland Fertilizer and Hualu Hengsheng [19]. Price Trends and Market Analysis - The report notes that while some chemical products have rebounded in price, the overall industry remains weak, with mixed performance across sub-sectors [17][19]. - It provides detailed price movements for various chemicals, indicating a general trend of price increases for certain products and declines for others [4][5][16]. - The report discusses the impact of OPEC's decisions on oil prices and how this affects the chemical industry, particularly in terms of raw material costs [6][20]. Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - The report includes a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, with a focus on their expected EPS and PE ratios for the coming years [9]. - Companies such as Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others are highlighted for their strong market positions and potential for growth [9][19]. - The report suggests that companies with strong asset quality and high dividend yields, like the "three barrels of oil," will benefit from the current market conditions [19].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights significant price fluctuations in chemical products, with natural gas and nitric acid showing the largest increases, while ammonium chloride and butadiene experienced notable declines [2][3]. Price Movements - Products with significant price increases this week include: - Natural gas (NYMEX futures) up by 30.25% - Nitric acid (Anhui) up by 20.59% - Liquid chlorine (East China) up by 10.27% - Lithium battery electrolyte (national average) up by 9.52% - Dichloromethane (East China) up by 8.93% - Sulfur (Vancouver FOB spot price) up by 8.33% - Sulfuric acid (Hangzhou pigment chemical plant) up by 5.32% - Toluene (FOB Korea) up by 4.48% - Coke (Shanxi market price) up by 3.72% - Xylene (Southeast Asia FOB Korea) up by 3.28% [1][2][3]. - Products with significant price declines this week include: - Aniline (East China) down by 4.90% - Methanol (East China) down by 4.99% - Styrene-butadiene rubber (East China) down by 5.48% - Trichloroethylene (East China) down by 6.00% - Carbon black (Jiangxi Heibao N330) down by 6.09% - Styrene-butadiene rubber (Shandong) down by 6.42% - Butadiene (Shanghai Petrochemical) down by 12.66% - Ammonium chloride (agricultural wet) down by 13.33% [2][3]. Industry Outlook - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4]. - Specific recommendations include: - Investing in the glyphosate sector, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices [4]. - Selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, such as Ruifeng New Materials in the lubricant additive sector and Baofeng Energy in the coal-to-olefins sector [4]. - Emphasizing domestic demand-driven sectors like chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products, with a focus on companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heart Link Fertilizer [4]. - Continuing to favor high-quality assets with high dividend yields in the context of declining international oil prices, particularly China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in sectors focusing on domestic demand, high dividends, and import substitution [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently experiencing a mixed performance, with some products seeing significant price increases while others are declining. It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets amid a backdrop of fluctuating oil prices and uncertain international conditions [6][23]. - The report suggests that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by rising U.S. oil inventories and geopolitical uncertainties [6][24]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends focusing on sectors likely to enter a growth cycle, such as glyphosate, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices [23]. - It also suggests selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [23]. - The report highlights the importance of domestic demand in the chemical fertilizer sector, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand [23]. Price Movements of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for natural gas (up 30.25%), nitric acid (up 20.59%), and liquid chlorine (up 10.27%) [20][21]. - Conversely, products like ammonium chloride and butadiene experienced substantial declines, with drops of -13.33% and -12.66% respectively [20][21]. Market Trends and Analysis - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently in a weak overall performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21][23]. - It emphasizes the need to pay attention to high-quality assets in the oil sector, particularly state-owned enterprises like Sinopec, which are expected to benefit from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the impact of renewed US-China trade tensions and fluctuating international oil prices on the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [1][2]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in sulfuric acid (up 26.15%), ethylene acetate (up 4.87%), and sulfur (up 4.58%), while notable declines were seen in PS (down 9.96%), natural gas (down 7.74%), and ammonium chloride (down 6.25%) [2][3]. - Brent crude oil closed at $61.29 per barrel, down 2.30% from the previous week, and WTI crude oil at $57.54 per barrel, down 2.31% [1][2]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4]. - Some sub-sectors, such as lubricants, have shown better-than-expected performance [3]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, recommending companies like Jiangshan Chemical, Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4]. - Select stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials in the lubricant additives sector and Baofeng Energy in the coal-to-olefins sector [4]. - Emphasize domestic chemical fertilizer and certain pesticide sub-products that are self-sufficient and have stable demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer [4]. - Continue to favor major oil companies with high asset quality and dividend yields, particularly Sinopec, which benefits from lower raw material costs due to falling oil prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the significant price increases in synthetic ammonia, lithium battery electrolytes, aniline, and anhydrous hydrofluoric acid, while other products like natural gas and sulfuric acid experienced notable declines [1][2][3] - As of September 26, Brent crude oil prices reached $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% from the previous week, while WTI crude oil prices were at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [1][3] - The report anticipates that the central value of international oil prices will stabilize between $65 and $70 by 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment opportunities in sectors such as glyphosate, fertilizers, import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets [4] - It suggests focusing on the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xinfeng Group, and Yangnong Chemical [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer industries, particularly nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which are expected to maintain stable demand, recommending companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heart Link Fertilizer [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing mixed performance, with some sectors like lubricants exceeding expectations, while overall industry performance remains weak due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [3][4] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the lubricating oil additive sector and suggests companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [4] - The report also notes that the three major oil companies in China are expected to remain attractive due to their high asset quality and dividend yields in the context of rising international oil prices [4]