早盘磷化工板块延续昨日强势，消息面上，美国宣布将元素磷及草甘膦等关键除草剂纳入国防关键物 资。此前2025年11月，美国内政部及USGS已新将磷酸盐纳入关键矿产清单。此举导致全球磷供应链重 构，国际磷肥价格突破700美元/吨。 华鑫证券指出，建议重视草甘膦、化肥、进口替代、纯内需、高股息资产等方向的投资机会。首先，建 议重视有望进入景气周期的草甘膦行业。草甘膦行业目前经营困难，底部特征明显，库存持续下降，价 格近期开始上涨，在海外进入补库存周期的大背景下，行业有可能进入景气周期；第二，在行业整体机 会不多的情况下，精选竞争格局和盈利能力相对较好且具备量增的成长性个股；第三，在关税不确定性 的影响下，出口预计会受到影响，内循环需要承担更多的增长责任，化工行业中产业链在国内且主要需 求也在国内的有化学肥料行业及部分农药行业中的子产品，其中氮肥和磷肥、复合肥自给自足内循环， 需求相对刚性。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证细分化工产业主题指数(000813)前十大权重股分别为万华化学、 盐湖股份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、巨化股份、宝丰能源、云天化、荣盛石化，前 十大权重股合计占比44.82% ...

来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 判断理由：截至2026-02-23收盘，布伦特原油价格为71.49美元/桶，相较上周+4.14%；WTI原油价格为 66.31美元/桶，相较上周+3.98%。预计2026年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美金。鉴于当前国际局势不确 定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价的中国石化等。 化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的有：工业级碳酸锂上涨7.58%，电池 级碳酸锂上涨7.46%，PVC上涨6.06%，氯化铵（农湿）上涨5.71%等，但仍有不少产品价格下跌，其中 液氯跌幅-46.95%，硝酸跌幅-8.00%，冰晶石跌幅-6.76 ...

华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.58%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆 99.5%min，7.46%），PVC（CFR东南亚，6.06%），氯化铵（农湿）（华东地区，5.71%），硫酸（双 狮98%，3.85%），磷酸二铵（美国海湾，3.71%），尿素（河南心连心(小颗粒)，3.41%），PA6切片 （华东地区，3.30%），国际汽油（新加坡，3.13%），国际石脑油（新加坡，3.06%）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 工业级碳酸锂、电池级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，液氯、硝酸等跌幅较大 本周跌幅较大的产品：液化气（长岭炼化，-3.98%），合成氨（江苏新沂，-4.46%），硫磺（高桥石化 出厂价格，-4.61%），锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，-4.62%），盐酸（华东合成 酸，-4.65%），二氯甲烷（华东地区，-5.16%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，-5.99%），冰晶石 （河南地区，-6.76%），硝酸（安徽98%，-8.00%），液氯（华东地区，-46.95%）。 本周观点：受地缘局势影响，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 判断理 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xin Yang Feng, Sen Qi Lin, Rui Feng New Material, Sinopec, Ju Hua Co., Yang Nong Chemical, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Tong Kun Co., and Dao Tong Technology [11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.58%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 7.46%), while liquid chlorine and nitric acid experienced substantial declines [4][18]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][18]. - The chemical industry is currently facing a mixed performance, with some sectors showing resilience while others struggle due to overcapacity and weak demand [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in key chemical products, noting both significant increases and decreases in various sectors [4][18]. - It recommends focusing on sectors like glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand and import substitution potential [21]. Price Trends - Key products that saw price increases include industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate, PVC, and ammonium chloride, while products like liquid chlorine and nitric acid saw significant price drops [4][5][18]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with performance varying across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Market Outlook - The report predicts that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [6][18]. - It highlights the potential for certain sectors, such as the lubricants and chemical fertilizers, to benefit from domestic demand and import substitution strategies [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in products such as p-nitrochlorobenzene (up 27.91%) and LLDPE (up 24.72%), while products like natural gas and LDPE saw substantial declines [6][18]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of fluctuating international oil prices [6][19]. - The report anticipates that international oil prices will stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines [19]. Summary by Sections Product Price Movements - Notable price increases this week include p-nitrochlorobenzene (27.91%), LLDPE (24.72%), and liquid chlorine (20.90) [18]. - Conversely, significant declines were observed in natural gas (-22.34%) and LDPE (-18.02%) [5][21]. Industry Performance - The chemical industry remains in a weak position overall, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. - Specific sectors like the glyphosate industry are showing signs of potential recovery, with decreasing inventories and rising prices, suggesting a possible entry into a favorable cycle [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy [21]. - It emphasizes the importance of domestic chemical fertilizer and pesticide sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [21]. - The report also highlights the benefits for major oil companies like Sinopec, which are expected to gain from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [21].

Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index decreased by 0.57% as of January 21, 2026, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Zhejiang Longsheng and Yara International leading gains, while Luxi Chemical and Hengyi Petrochemical faced declines [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) fell by 0.50%, with a latest price of 1 yuan and a record high scale of 625 million yuan, having attracted a total net inflow of 344 million yuan over the past 10 days [1] - The Petrochemical ETF has seen a net value increase of 64.29% over the past two years, with the highest single-month return reaching 15.86% and the longest consecutive monthly gain lasting for 8 months, with an average monthly return of 5.25% [1] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index as of December 31, 2025, include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical, collectively accounting for 56.73% of the index [2] - The performance of key stocks includes Wanhua Chemical down by 1.79%, China Petroleum up by 0.30%, and China Petrochemical down by 0.33%, among others [4] - The Petrochemical ETF closely tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, with various linked products available for investment [4] Group 3 - Huaxin Securities remains optimistic about the three major oil companies, particularly China Petrochemical, which benefits from lower raw material costs due to declining international oil prices [1] - Private refining companies are also expected to gain from the current downturn in oil prices due to their higher chemical yield and production efficiency [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in domestic gasoline and natural gas, while products like sulfur and hydrochloric acid have seen substantial declines [1][2][4] - Major products with notable price increases this week include domestic gasoline (Shanghai Sinopec 93, +11.38%), natural gas (NYMEX futures, +8.68%), TDI (East China, +7.03%), and xylene (East China, +6.61%) [1][4] - Conversely, products with significant price declines include urea (Yunnan Yunwei, -9.95%), sulfuric acid (Zhejiang Heding 98%, -10.00%), and hydrochloric acid (East China hydrochloric acid (31%), -13.79%) [2][4] Group 2 - The report suggests that the chemical industry is currently in a weak overall performance phase, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - It recommends focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets, particularly highlighting the potential recovery in the glyphosate sector as inventory decreases and prices begin to rise [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, such as Ruifeng New Materials in the lubricant additive sector and Baofeng Energy in the coal-to-olefins industry [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are expected to benefit from declining raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected, indicating potential investment opportunities [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report highlights significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%) and natural gas (8.68%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that may enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, and suggests specific companies for investment [22]. Market Performance - The report notes that the chemical industry is currently facing a weak overall performance, with varying results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - It recommends monitoring companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on oil prices, which in turn affect the chemical industry [23][24]. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with strong earnings forecasts, including Sinopec, Jiangshan Co., and others, all rated as "Buy" [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Insights - Domestic gasoline and natural gas prices have seen significant increases, while products like liquid chlorine and hydrochloric acid have experienced substantial declines. The report suggests focusing on import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high-dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The international oil prices are expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of price declines. Companies with high dividend characteristics, such as Sinopec, are viewed positively due to their benefits from lower raw material costs [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently in a weak state, with mixed performance across sub-sectors. However, certain sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected. The report highlights investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and companies with strong domestic demand [22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors that are likely to enter a recovery phase, such as glyphosate, which is currently facing operational difficulties but shows signs of improvement [22]. - It recommends selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additives sector and the coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also highlights the resilience of domestic chemical fertilizer sectors, which are expected to maintain stable demand due to self-sufficiency [22]. Market Performance - The report notes significant price increases for domestic gasoline (11.38%), natural gas (8.68%), and TDI (7.03%), while products like liquid chlorine (-18.02%) and hydrochloric acid (-13.79%) have seen notable declines [19][20]. - The overall performance of the chemical industry remains weak, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors are outperforming expectations [22]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, indicating a mixed performance with some products rebounding while others continue to decline [20][22]. - It highlights the fluctuations in international oil prices, which are expected to impact the chemical sector significantly [23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant price increases in certain chemical products such as butadiene and acrylonitrile, while others like sulfur and aluminum fluoride have seen substantial declines [1][2][4] - This week, the products with the largest price increases include butadiene (Shanghai Petrochemical, +10.09%), acrylonitrile (East China AN, +7.29%), nitric acid (Anhui 98%, +6.67%), and trichloroethylene (East China, +5.78%) [1][2][4] - Conversely, products with the largest price declines include liquid chlorine (East China, -21.55%), aluminum fluoride (Henan region, -9.58%), and natural rubber (Malaysian No. 20 standard rubber SMR20, -4.68%) [2][4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [4] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in glyphosate, fertilizers, and high-dividend assets, particularly highlighting the potential for glyphosate to enter a favorable cycle as inventory decreases and prices begin to rise [4] - The report recommends specific companies such as Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical in the glyphosate sector, as well as companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Baofeng Energy in the lubricants and coal-to-olefins sectors, respectively [4]