1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly and closed slightly lower, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has been boosted by risk - aversion sentiment, suppressing copper prices. There is a risk of a second - round correction due to continuous inventory accumulation. However, when the financial market has priced in risks and inventory accumulation ends, the market may enter a stage of rising risk appetite. The strategy is to maintain a layout at low prices [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina futures AO2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The price of Shanghai aluminum AL2604 closed at 24435 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.88%. The price of aluminum alloy AD2604 also declined. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The price of alumina is expected to be weakly stable [1][2]. Nickel - LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices both declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore price and nickel - iron price are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is a demand for rigid restocking. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of light - position trial long near the cost line and monitor the inventory of primary nickel [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated, and the US dollar has risen, suppressing copper prices. The inventory has increased, and there is a risk of a second - round correction. However, there may be an opportunity when the market sentiment improves [1]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy futures all showed a weak trend. The price of alumina spot rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The suspension of production in the Middle East has increased supply concerns, and domestic inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased. The nickel ore and nickel - iron prices are rising, providing cost support. The production of stainless steel and ternary precursors is increasing, and there is demand for restocking [3][4]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased, and the price of scrap copper increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased, and the price of lead concentrate also increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [5]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts increased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the price of imported nickel decreased. The LME inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the social inventory increased [6]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price increased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [8]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory increased [8]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][11][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][17][18][21][23][24]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [31][32][33][34][35][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [44][45][46][47][48][49]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in the non - ferrous metal industry, have won many awards, and have in - depth research in different fields of non - ferrous metals [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on December 26, 2025 [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Domestic spot price is 94825, March price is 96370, LME March price is 12133, and the ratio is 7.86 [1] - **Zinc**: Domestic spot price is 23090, March price is 23095, LME March price is 3087, and the ratio is 5.59 [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic spot price is 21980, March price is 22325, LME March price is 2957, and the ratio is 7.51 [1] - **Nickel**: Domestic spot price is 126100, and the profit of spot import is 45.32 [1] - **Lead**: Domestic spot price is 17125, March price is 17315, LME March price is 2000, and the ratio is 11.52 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 350, 510, 580, 640 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 581, 1061, 1549, 2037 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 95, - 50, - 20 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 219, 344, 469, 594 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 70, 120, 135 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 222, 346, 469, 592 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 75, 75, 60, 50 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 211, 318, 426, 533 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 2240, - 1930, - 1690, - 1280 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1780, with a theoretical spread of 6890 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 1130 and 1480 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 570 and 1145 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 100 and - 25 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 151 and 286 [4] - **Zinc (another record)**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 100 and - 25 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 198 and 332 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 115 and 190 respectively, with theoretical spreads of 165 and 279 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) are 4.17, 4.32, 5.57, 0.97, 1.29, 0.75 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The report mainly presents the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 23, 2025 [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 23, 2025, the domestic spot price was 84980, LME spot price was 10663, and the spot ratio was 8.01. The domestic March price was 85370, LME March price was 10669, and the March ratio was 7.96. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.09 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 21910, LME spot price was 3350, and the spot ratio was 6.54. The domestic March price was 22040, LME March price was 3011, and the March ratio was 5.70. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.49, with a profit of - 6539.20 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20980, LME spot price was 2800, and the spot ratio was 7.49. The domestic March price was 21050, LME March price was 2797, and the March ratio was 7.50. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.37, with a profit of - 2452.65 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123500, LME spot price was 14998, and the spot ratio was 8.23. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.19, with a profit of - 1463.49 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16975, LME spot price was 1953, and the spot ratio was 8.70. The domestic March price was 17185, LME March price was 1993, and the March ratio was 11.03. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.82, with a profit of - 232.67 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 40, - 10, - 40, - 80 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 529, 956, 1392, 1828 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 15, 55, 70, 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 332, 451, 570 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 30, 35, 35, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 333, 450, 567 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 15, 25, 35, 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 211, 318, 424, 531 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - spot month, March - spot month, April - spot month, and May - spot month were 260, 440, 590, 790 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 620, and the theoretical spread was 5833 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month contract - spot and the next - month contract - spot were 445 and 485 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 487 and 963 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 75 and 90 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 176 and 304 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 185 and 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 186 and 299 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 23, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.87, 4.06, 4.97, 0.96, 1.22, 0.78 respectively, and for London (three - continuous) were 3.53, 3.80, 5.34, 0.93, 1.41, 0.66 respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The colored metals sector should be vigilant against short - term trend reversals. Different varieties in the black, agricultural products, and energy - chemical sectors require differentiated risk management strategies, including short - term operations, band trading, and combining with fundamentals [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Colored Metals Sector - **1H25 Colored Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals sector in 1H25 was weak, with significant differentiation among varieties. Traditional industrial metals were relatively resistant to decline, while new energy materials declined sharply. For example, copper and aluminum prices rose, while zinc, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon prices fell [13]. - The technical indicator ratings of copper and aluminum were generally consistent, but the correlation between the rating and actual yield was different. The technical indicators of zinc and lead had a high correlation with yields. For new energy metals, the effectiveness of technical indicator ratings was limited [15][23]. - **Detailed Review of Key Colored Metals Variety - Copper** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price and volume changes of the Shanghai copper main - continuous contract in the first half of the year can be divided into five trends. Currently, the volume and open interest have rebounded slightly, but the price increase is limited, and it is necessary to wait for further volume signals [39][40][43]. - **MACD**: There were 5 golden cross signals and 3 dead cross signals in the first half of the year. The short - term MACD formed a dead cross signal, and there is a risk of short - term correction. Medium - and long - term operations need to consider the long - term bullish fundamentals [45][46]. - **Oscillating Indicators**: The overall signal effectiveness of oscillating indicators was insufficient. The long - cycle KDJ was more effective in observing large - scale corrections and sudden rebounds, while the CCI had a high failure rate [49][52]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point of Shanghai copper rose steadily, showing a bullish market. However, the resistance levels were "solidified", and the support levels were "moving up". The price was compressed in a box, and the adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [53][55]. - **Colored Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - Traditional non - ferrous metals and new energy metals can use technical indicator ratings to capture price risks. For example, for Shanghai aluminum, set stop - loss levels and use put options to hedge against correction risks; for Shanghai zinc, use call options instead of some long positions [61][62]. - Shanghai copper is in a stage of shock consolidation. There is a risk of short - term correction, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of downward break - through and false breakthrough. Long - term upward trends need to be confirmed by volume [63][65]. 3.2 Black Metals Sector - **1H25 Black Metals Sector Technical Rating Review** - In the first half of 2025, black metal futures all declined, with coking coal and coke leading the decline. The volatility of coking coal, coke, and iron ore was high, while that of rebar and hot - rolled coil was relatively low [64]. - The pivot point distribution of each variety showed obvious differentiation, with "raw materials > finished products > alloys" in terms of volatility gradient. Coking coal and coke had a high risk of breaking through S2 and R2, iron ore had a medium risk of breaking through S3, and manganese silicon had a high risk of breaking through R3 [89]. - **Detailed Review of Key Black Metals Variety - Rebar** - **Volume and Open Interest**: The price of the rebar main - continuous contract in 1H25 can be divided into five stages. Currently, the decline has slowed down, but the downward pressure has not been eliminated. The market is in a weak balance state, and it is necessary to be vigilant against break - through risks [92][93][94]. - **Technical Patterns**: The effectiveness of the dead cross signal of MACD was stronger than that of the golden cross signal. Oscillating indicators did not have significant long - or short - term guidance, and it was necessary to be cautious about rebounds in the third quarter [96][98]. - **Support and Resistance Levels**: The pivot point moved down step by step in 1H25, and the market was dominated by bears. The current price is in a box - shaped shock between S2 and R2. The adjustment of support and resistance levels in the third quarter needs to wait for short - term price and volume breakthroughs [102]. - **Black Metals Sector Risk Management Guidelines** - The upstream coking coal and coke can use short - term box operations based on the new weekly Fibonacci pivot, and long - term holding needs to consider fundamental fluctuations. Iron ore can appropriately loosen the box operation to S3 and R3. Rebar is in a weak shock pattern, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the risks of short - term rebound and false breakthrough [113][115]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **1H25 Agricultural Products Sector Technical Rating Review** - Palm oil and soybean meal had high volatility, suitable for short - term active operations; pork and soybean oil had moderate volatility, suitable for medium - term trading; sugar, corn, and cotton had low volatility, suitable for trading strategies that follow the fundamentals [116]. - The overall fit between the market fluctuations and technical indicator ratings in the agricultural products sector was less than 40%, but the yield performance was relatively coordinated in long - and short - term ratings. High - volatility varieties need to use multi - dimensional technical indicators for refined market ratings [116]. - **Agricultural Products Sector Fibonacci Pivot Analysis** - Different varieties had different levels of activity. High - volatility varieties such as soybeans, palm oil, eggs, and red dates were suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as apples, corn starch, soybean meal, and peanuts were suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as japonica rice and cotton were suitable for combining with fundamentals and waiting for key technical level breakthroughs [139]. 3.4 Energy - Chemical Sector - The energy - chemical sector mainly adopts differentiated risk management. High - volatility varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and styrene are suitable for short - term operations; medium - volatility varieties such as LPG and asphalt are suitable for band trading; low - volatility varieties such as PVC and polypropylene are suitable for medium - term operations combined with fundamentals. PTA should be vigilant against overbought corrections [4].