Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co., Ltd. remains at AA- with a negative outlook, reflecting challenges in the real estate sector impacting product demand and operational pressures [3][5][9]. Company Overview - Jiangshan Oupai is a leading manufacturer in the domestic wooden door industry, recognized for its brand and product advantages, which facilitate the expansion of sales channels [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its sales channels, with a focus on agency and distributor channels, while also developing franchise service channels [12][17]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets as of the latest report are 34.37 billion, with equity attributable to shareholders at 13.16 billion [4]. - Revenue for the company has seen a decline, with a reported decrease of 35.82% year-on-year, and a continuous drop in gross margin [13][18]. - The company has reduced its interest-bearing debt, leading to decreased repayment pressure, with the scale of payable notes dropping from 7.44 billion to 4.21 billion [4][5]. Industry Environment - The wooden door industry is experiencing intense competition and is currently in a downturn due to the real estate sector's struggles, which has led to a decrease in product demand [9][10]. - The industry is characterized by low concentration, with many regional brands and a lack of strong national brands, indicating potential for market consolidation [10][11]. - The sales cycle of wooden doors lags behind that of the real estate market, which continues to face challenges [10][11]. Operational Challenges - The company faces risks related to accounts receivable, with extended collection periods and high customer concentration, particularly among real estate clients [5][15]. - Production capacity utilization is expected to decline in 2024, raising concerns about the company's ability to manage inventory effectively [5][18]. - The rapid growth of distributors and franchisees presents management challenges, impacting the conversion rate of distributor business [5][17]. Future Outlook - The credit rating agency maintains a negative outlook for the company, anticipating continued pressure from the real estate sector and competitive dynamics within the wooden door industry [5][9]. - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of recovery, but the wooden door industry remains under pressure, with demand still at a low point [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 are projected to be 3.001 billion, 109 million, and 71 million respectively, representing declines of 20%, 72%, and 79% year-on-year [2][6] - The revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be 743 million, with net profit attributable to the parent and net profit excluding non-recurring items at -55 million and -63 million respectively, indicating a 28% year-on-year decline [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue is projected at 402 million, with net profit attributable to the parent and net profit excluding non-recurring items at 3 million and -23 million respectively, reflecting a 36% year-on-year decline [6] - The revenue is under pressure due to the macroeconomic environment, but the number of distributors continues to expand [2][6] - The company is optimizing its business structure, with an increasing proportion of cash-clearance business and non-residential demand [2][6] - Short-term profitability is under pressure, but there is a focus on marketing transformation to drive new growth points [2][6] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company is experiencing a decline in revenue and profitability due to external economic factors, with significant drops in both net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items for 2024 [2][6] - The revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to decline significantly, with Q4 showing a 28% drop and Q1 a 36% drop year-on-year [6] Business Structure and Growth - The company is expanding its distributor network, with a net increase of 25,951 distributors in 2024, bringing the total to 62,518, and a further increase of 6,303 in Q1 2025 [2][6] - The business structure is being optimized, with a shift towards cash-clearance and non-residential projects, reducing reliance on new residential demand [2][6] Marketing and Future Outlook - The company is actively promoting marketing changes to identify new growth opportunities, focusing on quality strategic clients and expanding distribution channels [2][6] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 150 million, 220 million, and 290 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 11, and 9 times [2][6]