橡胶：如何看待贸易行为 20251123 摘要 2025 年橡胶加工利润受挤压，原料价格高企但下游需求疲软，导致泰 国加工厂加价购入原料，小型民营企业因现金流和融资成本问题难以维 持库存。 轮胎厂受欧盟反补贴、反倾销政策影响，利润减少，但头部企业仍有盈 利，下半年采购节奏加快，天然胶库存较低，逢低补库。 海外市场需求疲软，九月底至国庆期间出现短暂补库，目前正谈判 2026 年长约，数量和价格预计与 2025 年相近。 泰国原料价格受供需影响维持高位，新增产线增加需求，供应端无显著 增加，预计 2026 年难以大幅改善。 2025 年正套套利盘消失，反套套利盘规模较大，叠加泰国胶厂卖货， 压制美金计价产品价格，四季度进口量预计减少，累库现象减弱。 美国关税影响显著，全钢轮胎下游利润大幅下降，预计 2026 年全钢和 半钢行业都将面临挑战。 原料价格上涨但下游无力承接，汇率走弱侵蚀利润，加工厂可能减产甚 至停产，目前产能利用率在六到七成以上。 Q&A 海外市场对橡胶需求及补库情况如何？ 今年（2025 年）海外市场需求一直较弱，尤其受关税影响显著。九月底至国 庆节期间出现了一波补库行为，当时 EUDI 执行在即， ...

据RUPAG分析，新政策将带来多重效益：保障本土工厂原料供应、维护7万余个农村就业岗位、支 持超过6.5亿塞地种植贷款偿还，并通过促进精深加工增加外汇储备。该协会同时宣布，将配合政府推 进产能提升计划，目标在2035年前将全国干胶产量从10万吨提升至25万吨，确保产业链可持续发展。 据"编年史"11月19日报道，加纳政府近日宣布，将限制未加工橡胶出口，直至国内供应实现自给自 足。财政部长福森博士明确表示，此举旨在通过产业培育计划加强本土制造业，推动产业价值链升级。 这一政策及时回应了橡胶行业长期诉求。此前，由于原料供应不足，加纳橡胶庄园有限公司等本土企业 被迫缩减生产规模。加纳橡胶加工商协会（RUPAG）发表声明，称赞此举是"关键而及时的干预"。 （原标题：加纳限制天然橡胶出口以推动本土加工） ...

Group 1 - Renewable energy is a key area for China-ASEAN economic cooperation, with China leading in clean technology, which will attract more investments into Thailand and other ASEAN countries [1][4] - The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 upgrade is expected to significantly change business operation models, particularly through the establishment of a unified "single window" system to enhance trade flow [1][3] - The upgrade of the free trade area, which began negotiations in November 2022 and concluded in October 2024, aims to address not only traditional tariff issues but also new areas such as digital economy rules and green economy [2][3] Group 2 - China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, while ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for 5 years, indicating strong trade dynamics [2] - The report from the China Financial Forty Forum and the Krung Thai Research Center highlights a continuous increase in China's exports to Thailand and a record high in greenfield investments from China in sectors like automotive manufacturing and electronics [2][3] Group 3 - The cooperation between China and Thailand is evolving from a complementary relationship to strategic integration, with a focus on creating a "win-win model" for regional collaboration [3][13] - The potential for cooperation in renewable energy and food safety is significant, providing more export opportunities for Thailand and the entire ASEAN region [4][11] Group 4 - Thailand's investment environment has unique competitive advantages despite challenges in capital gains and dividend taxes compared to Singapore, particularly in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) [5][6] - The Thai government is expected to implement measures to enhance transparency and digitize government processes to attract more foreign investments [6][9] Group 5 - Geopolitical risks and trade tensions are prompting companies to adjust their supply chain strategies, with many global firms considering Thailand for diversified production locations to mitigate risks [11][12] - The integration of China and ASEAN is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness, although it may also increase competition for local businesses [13][14]

Core Insights - Côte d'Ivoire is the world's third-largest and Africa's largest producer of natural rubber, with a significant portion exported to Asia, particularly China, South Korea, and Malaysia, which together account for approximately 89% of global natural rubber processing capacity [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Meilan Company plays a crucial role in Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber industry, operating five processing plants located in Dabou, Diqui, San Pedro, Zagne, and Guitry [1] - The company has an annual processing capacity of 480,000 tons, representing about 30% of the national natural rubber processing capacity [1] - Meilan Company creates over 3,000 direct jobs locally [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Côte d'Ivoire's natural rubber production is projected to reach 1.8 million tons in 2024 [1]

Core Insights - Thailand has become a significant destination for Chinese enterprises expanding overseas, with continuous growth in China's exports to Thailand and increasing market share of Chinese goods in Thailand's import market [1] - Chinese investments in Thailand have reached new highs, particularly in sectors such as automotive manufacturing, electronic components, and rubber processing [1] - The Thai government promotes a business-friendly environment, making it an attractive opportunity for Chinese companies, especially in automotive manufacturing, digital economy, and clean energy [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - There is a rising trend of Chinese companies investing in Thailand, exemplified by Haier New Energy organizing a delegation to explore business opportunities and projects in the country [2] - Chinese banks, such as Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), are providing comprehensive financial services to support Chinese enterprises in Thailand, including cross-border financial services and investment information [2] Group 2: Financial Cooperation - A multi-layered coordination framework for financial cooperation has been established between China and ASEAN, with initiatives like the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (CMIM) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) facilitating large-scale infrastructure financing [3] - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has created unified rules for cross-border financial transactions, enhancing regional financial integration [3] Group 3: Challenges Faced - Despite the opportunities, Chinese enterprises face challenges in cross-border fund management and foreign exchange risks when entering the Thai market [4] - Large enterprises encounter complex registration processes and high banking fees, while small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) struggle with foreign exchange regulations and cash flow management [4][5] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Risk Management - Effective foreign exchange risk management is crucial for Chinese enterprises in Thailand, with large enterprises employing diverse strategies, yet many still lack formal hedging practices [5] - SMEs have limited access to foreign exchange risk management tools, making them vulnerable to currency fluctuations [5] Group 5: Recommendations for Enterprises - Chinese enterprises are advised to integrate into the local market, adapt culturally, enhance their corporate image, and comply with local laws [6] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of collaboration with local SMEs and optimizing financing strategies [6] Group 6: Role of Financial Institutions - Financial institutions are encouraged to build comprehensive service systems for enterprises going abroad, with large banks collaborating with local banks to enhance service capabilities [7] - Domestic banks should strengthen partnerships with overseas banks to better serve diverse needs of outbound enterprises [7]

Core Insights - Chinese enterprises are increasingly investing in Southeast Asia, with Thailand emerging as a key destination due to its political stability and predictable market conditions [1][2] - The report highlights that ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with significant investment in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the "new three types" industries: photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries [1][2] Investment Trends - From 2020 to 2024, China's cumulative greenfield investment in ASEAN's manufacturing sector is projected to reach $65.91 billion, with $42.26 billion (64.1%) allocated to the "new three types" industries [1] - Investment in new energy vehicles is primarily concentrated in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, while lithium battery investments are focused in Indonesia, and photovoltaic investments are seen in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Cambodia [1][2] Sector-Specific Investments - In Thailand, over 500 Chinese companies have invested more than 547.76 billion Thai Baht (approximately $16.8 billion), creating over 150,000 jobs, with key sectors including electric vehicles, electronics, semiconductors, and rubber processing [3] - Chinese investments in Thailand also extend to infrastructure, logistics, digital economy, tourism, and real estate, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative [3] Challenges Faced - Despite the growth, Chinese enterprises face challenges in Thailand, including regulatory, cultural, and legal hurdles, as well as concerns from local businesses about competition and reliance on Chinese supply chains [4][5] - Local businesses express worries about the depreciation of older models of Chinese electric vehicles due to frequent price cuts and the insufficient localization of production [4] Strategic Recommendations - It is emphasized that Chinese companies should not view Thailand merely as a stepping stone but should integrate into the local market, focusing on cultural adaptation and compliance to build a responsible investor image [5] - The goal of Chinese investment in ASEAN is framed as promoting regional integration rather than merely seeking trade surpluses, with a focus on achieving trade balance [5]

Core Insights - Hunan Province's total import and export value to Africa reached 44.52 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [1] - Exports amounted to 21.21 billion yuan, growing by 8.3%, while imports surged by 31.7% to 23.31 billion yuan [1] - Changsha City accounted for 53.7% of the province's total trade with Africa, with a remarkable growth rate of 56.7% [1] Trade Growth Drivers - The China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo, held in Changsha since 2019, has facilitated significant trade growth, with 336 projects signed and a total value of 53.32 billion USD [2] - The fourth expo saw 62 projects signed, amounting to 3.8 billion USD, marking increases of 77% and 117% respectively compared to the previous expo [2] Logistics and Infrastructure - A new cargo flight route from Changsha to Addis Ababa has been established, increasing frequency to five flights per week [3] - The "Xiangyuefei" rail-sea intermodal transport channel has shipped over 200,000 TEUs, enhancing logistics networks [3] Industry Contributions - Major enterprises like SANY, Zoomlion, and Hunan Nonferrous Metals are accelerating their presence in the African market, with the Changsha Free Trade Zone expected to reach 12 billion yuan in trade with Africa [5] - The province's exports of electromechanical products to Africa reached 12.24 billion yuan, with automotive and electrical equipment growing by 57.7% and 149.1% respectively [4] Trade Mode Transformation - Hunan's trade with Africa is shifting from traditional models to diversified operations, with processing trade and bonded logistics growing by 210.5% and 389.3% respectively [6] - Innovative policies and infrastructure upgrades, such as the establishment of a bonded logistics center, have significantly reduced logistics costs and customs clearance times [6] Market Dynamics - Private enterprises dominate Hunan's trade with Africa, accounting for 76.6% of the total import and export value [8] - The Changsha International Trade Group reported a 3.9-fold increase in trade with Africa, reaching 2.438 billion yuan [8] Resource Complementarity - Hunan's imports from Africa saw a significant increase, with bulk commodities growing by 86.1% to 10.97 billion yuan, including a 162.2% rise in natural rubber imports [10] - The province's exports are aligning with African demand, particularly in new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and photovoltaic products, which saw a 462.4% increase [11] Future Outlook - Continued deepening of cross-border capacity cooperation and the establishment of overseas warehouses in Africa are recommended to enhance supply chains [12]

1. Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up in factories and mid - stream delivery warehouses. The supply is in excess compared to current demand, and without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [1]. - Glass manufacturers' sales have improved, but the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Pay attention to spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased, with drops ranging from 0.85% to 3.28%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable. Glass futures prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while soda ash futures prices rose slightly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and weekly output increased by 3.37% to 77.08 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16% to 16.13 million tons, and PV daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 6282.40 ten - thousand heavy boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 165.98 million tons [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices first rose on news of a company's production cut and then fell back. In October, supply increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. However, considering cost factors and the approaching dry season, prices may move up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices if the 11 - contract price drops to 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of most industrial silicon varieties remained unchanged, and basis differences decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread dropping by 97.30% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3.12% to 56.20 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7.15% to 31.55 million tons [2]. 3. Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Polysilicon futures prices fell after opening on Monday, possibly due to some funds taking profits. The continuous increase in polysilicon warehouse receipts pressured the November contract price. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to increased supply. Whether the increased production can be digested by demand in the fourth - quarter peak - installation season will significantly affect prices. The price is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side orders. The supply in Southwest China will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices. Guard against the risk of inventory accumulation if demand is lower than expected [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of most polysilicon and related products remained stable. The main contract price of futures decreased by 3.82% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 11.85% to 14.35 GM, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons. Polysilicon imports increased by 28.46%, and exports decreased by 28.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 5.42% to 25.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.16% to 17.31 GM [4]. 4. Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - The log futures market fluctuated. The 01 contract is relatively strong. With the increase in foreign quotes and port fees, there is strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, the futures price has certain support at the bottom. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices of different contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipments increased by 6.00% to 176.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55% [5]. - **Inventory**: National log inventory decreased by 2.34% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the average daily log出库 volume increased by 10% to 6.32 million cubic meters [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - In the short - term, the rebound in raw material prices supports rubber prices, but the expected improvement in weather in northeastern Thailand may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Demand has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still adjusting production flexibly to control inventory. In the short - term, rubber prices may follow the macro - led market. If raw material supply is smooth, prices may decline further; if not, prices are expected to be around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.35%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.69%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August showed different trends. Tire production and import of natural rubber increased, while tire exports decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07% to 43483 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 2.93% to 40119 tons [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the changes in metal and rubber inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange for the week of October 17, with copper inventory increasing by 550 tons, aluminum decreasing by 2,749 tons, zinc increasing by 2,677 tons, lead increasing by 1,785 tons, nickel increasing by 1,300 tons, tin decreasing by 188 tons, and natural rubber decreasing by 7,282 tons [1] Group 2 - Copper inventory saw an increase of 550 tons [1] - Aluminum inventory experienced a significant decrease of 2,749 tons [1] - Zinc inventory increased by 2,677 tons [1] - Lead inventory rose by 1,785 tons [1] - Nickel inventory increased by 1,300 tons [1] - Tin inventory decreased by 188 tons [1] - Natural rubber inventory saw a notable decrease of 7,282 tons [1]

Core Insights - The successful arrival and storage of the first batch of 1,200 tons of No. 20 rubber at Tianjin marks the first bonded delivery of this futures product in the region, enhancing the operational capabilities of the East Jiang Comprehensive Bonded Zone [2][4] - The establishment of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery warehouse in Tianjin is significant as it is the city's first and only facility with bonded delivery capabilities for this futures product, which is crucial for the rubber processing industry [2][4] Industry Developments - The East Jiang area is leveraging its multiple functional policies as a Free Trade Zone, Comprehensive Bonded Zone, and Port to enhance its role in international shipping and financial innovation [4] - The successful implementation of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery business aligns with the trend of stable supply of bulk raw materials, which is increasingly important for the manufacturing sector in the context of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development [4] Future Outlook - The East Jiang area plans to continue expanding the range of futures delivery categories and innovate service models, aiming to attract more upstream and downstream enterprises in the rubber industry [4] - The development of the No. 20 rubber futures delivery business is expected to enhance the port's resource allocation capabilities within the international trade network, contributing to the integration of port, industry, and city [4]