橡胶：胶价重回 1 万 7 后的展望 20260228 全球加工产能与原料供给错配程度如何？对加工利润与产业行为产生了哪些影 响？ 全球活跃加工产能测算约 2,500 万吨，而原料供给规模约 1,520 万吨，供需错 配显著压制加工利润，并引发低成本产区亦出现利润恶化。以非洲为例，2023 —2024 年加工利润高时可达 400 美元/吨，低时亦约 200 美元/吨；但至 2026 年四季度，非洲亦开始出现亏损。2026 年三季度尚未亏损的环节主要是 烟片，仍有约 30—40 美元/吨加工利润；非洲加工利润约 70—80 美元/吨至 100 美元/吨，但到四季度也已消失。产能与原料错配同样体现在非洲与老挝： 非洲在 2025 年呈现"270 万吨加工产能对应 190 万吨产量"的格局；老挝亦 从过去"20 多万吨产能对应 40 万吨产量、仍可向云南分流"转为本土加工端 争抢原料，外溢能力下降。 中国周边低成本产区（老挝、缅甸、柬埔寨、越南、云南）当前的原料争夺格 局如何？关税政策变化带来哪些影响？ Q&A 2025 年全球天然橡胶供需格局如何，供需缺口与价格下跌之间的矛盾应如何 理解？ 2025 年全球天然橡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中化国际（控股）股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第十六次会议于2026年1月19日以通 讯方式召开。会议应到董事7名，实到董事7名，出席会议董事超过全体董事的半数。会议符合《公司 法》《公司章程》及《董事会议事规则》的有关规定。会议由董事长张学工先生主持，经认真讨论，会 议审议通过以下决议： 一、同意《关于修订公司部分公司治理文件的议案》。 为进一步提升公司治理水平，根据《上市公司治理准则》以及《公司章程》等有关规定，结合公司实 际，公司对《中化国际董事会议事规则》《中化国际董事会授权管理办法》及授权一览表、《中化国 际"三重一大"决策事项管理规定》《中化国际经理层工作规则》（原《中化国际总经理工作细则》）4 项制度进行了修订。其中《董事会议事规则》尚需提交股东会审议，股东会时间将另行通知。 证券代码：600500 证券简称：中化国际 编号：2026-003 债券代码：138949 债券简称：23中化K1 债券代码：241598 债券简称：24中化K1 中化国际 ...

白沙：政策红利催热产业"新赛道" 海南日报全媒体记者 刘宁玥 "我们就是奔着自贸港封关后的政策红利和机遇来的。" 受自贸港封关政策吸引，重点企业加快生产线建设、开通EF账户…… 全岛封关尚不满月，但海南自贸港各行各业都在抢抓政策新机遇，产业发展如火如荼。身在白沙黎 族自治县的海南省琼胶科技有限责任公司(以下简称琼胶科技)有关负责人罗熙对此也有切身感受。 1月8日，走进位于邦溪镇的白沙生态产业园全球天然橡胶深加工与超聚态橡胶(海南)基地项目现 场，只见一座厂房已经搭建完成，工人们或俯身焊接，或调试电路，一派忙碌景象。 在这里，一条全球天然橡胶深加工生产线已初具雏形，预计于本月内建成投用，投用后将进一步扩 大企业橡胶制品的生产规模与销售市场。作为项目投资方的琼胶科技，目前已完成从上游橡胶林种植到 下游终端制品制造的全生态产业链布局，业务辐射全国及东南亚、非洲等国际市场。 "每天都在与时间赛跑!"谈到全力加速生产线建设的动力，罗熙告诉海南日报全媒体记者，"自贸港 封关政策和机遇催人奋进!" "根据当前行情测算，我们的产品从进口、加工到销售的增值率远超30%，符合海南自贸港加工增 值免关税政策要求。"罗熙说，全岛封关 ...

Core Insights - On December 25, 2025, Tunchang County held a promotional event resulting in the signing of 12 key projects with a total planned investment exceeding 1.63 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the county's industrial layout and development potential [1][3] Group 1: Project Details - The signed projects span various sectors including tourism and health, agricultural product processing, cross-border e-commerce, and ecological agriculture, aligning with the industrial development needs post-Hainan Free Trade Port's closure [3][4] - Notable projects include the Wolong Mountain Forest Health and Tourism Resort with a total investment of 3 billion yuan, and the first phase planned investment of 1.08 billion yuan for infrastructure development [3][4] - The Wanxiang Natural Rubber Processing Project plans to invest over 280 million yuan to enhance production lines and environmental facilities, contributing to the improvement of Tunchang's rubber industry [3][4] Group 2: Investment Environment - Tunchang County's investment promotion team provided dedicated support, completing initial reviews and multi-department consultations for the Wolong Mountain project in just 7 days, reflecting a strong commitment to attracting and supporting businesses [4] - The county has signed a total of 30 projects this year, with a cumulative planned investment of 4.795 billion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to economic development [4] - Future efforts will focus on deepening investment attraction, enhancing project tracking services, and ensuring timely implementation of signed projects to support the construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full island closure operation marks a significant milestone, facilitating smoother trade and enhancing economic exchanges with the mainland [1][5]. Group 1: Zero Tariff Policy - The Hainan Free Trade Port has implemented a more favorable "zero tariff" policy, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff items from 21% to 74% for "first-line" imports, allowing for tax-free circulation of goods within the island [3][5]. - The first batch of rubber products exported from Hainan, weighing 232.4 tons and valued at approximately 2.97 million yuan, benefited from the zero tariff policy, saving nearly 400,000 yuan in import duties [3][5]. - The processing and value-added exemption policy has been in trial since July 2021, with continuous optimizations leading to lower thresholds for benefits and broader applicability [5][6]. Group 2: Customs and Trade Facilitation - The new customs clearance model, tailored for the Hainan Free Trade Port, simplifies the declaration process for zero-tariff goods, reducing the required data from 105 items to 33, significantly enhancing efficiency [6][7]. - The customs authorities are committed to optimizing the clearance process and ensuring local processing enterprises can effectively leverage the zero tariff policy to expand into mainland markets [5][6]. Group 3: Industrial Development - Hainan is building a modern industrial system characterized by zero tariffs on raw materials, duty-free exports, and favorable tax rates, which are expected to accelerate industrial growth [8][9]. - The tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture sectors have shown average nominal growth rates of 5.9%, 13.4%, 36.8%, and 10.7% respectively over the past four years, contributing to sustained economic momentum [8][9]. - The establishment of a commercial space launch site in Hainan has led to successful satellite launches, indicating rapid advancements in the aerospace sector [8][9]. Group 4: International Cooperation - Hainan's strategic location allows it to connect with major markets in the Asia-Pacific region, enhancing trade cooperation, particularly with ASEAN countries [13][14]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port aims to serve as a strategic hub for investment and trade between China and ASEAN, facilitating greater economic integration and cooperation [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of goods from the "second-line port" at Sanya Port (Nanshan Port Area) has successfully cleared customs, highlighting the effectiveness of the new tax exemption policy for value-added processing in Hainan Province [2]. Group 1: Customs Clearance - On December 18, seven trucks loaded with 12 twenty-foot containers of rubber pellets arrived at the customs inspection site at Sanya Port and received clearance for shipment to Qingdao [2]. - The successful customs clearance is attributed to the implementation of the tax exemption policy for value-added processing, which has been beneficial for local enterprises [2]. Group 2: Company Profile - Hainan Xiangyuan Industrial Co., Ltd. is the first officially registered enterprise under the tax exemption policy for value-added processing in Hainan Province [2]. - The company imported 344.31 tons of natural raw materials from Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, processing 232.4 tons into high-grade technical classification rubber (TSR20) before shipping it to Qingdao [2]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The tax exemption policy has reduced operational costs for companies like Hainan Xiangyuan, providing them with a competitive edge in the market [2]. - Overall, the value-added processing tax exemption policy offers cost advantages and strategic opportunities for enterprises deeply rooted in Hainan and extending their industrial chains [2].

Core Insights - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure operation on December 18 marks a significant milestone, enabling smoother customs clearance for goods leaving the island, with the first batch of products cleared in just 15 minutes [1][2]. Customs and Trade Policies - The Hainan Free Trade Port has implemented a more favorable "zero tariff" policy for goods, increasing the proportion of zero-tariff items from 21% to 74% for "first-line" imports, allowing for tax-free circulation of goods with a 30% value-added processing [2][3]. - The first batch of rubber products exported from Hainan weighed 232.4 tons with a value of approximately 2.97 million yuan, benefiting from the zero-tariff policy and avoiding nearly 400,000 yuan in import duties [2][3]. - The customs process has been streamlined, reducing the number of required data entries for customs declarations from 105 to 33 for certain zero-tariff goods, significantly enhancing efficiency [4][5]. Industry Development - Hainan is building a modern industrial system, with core policies such as zero tariffs and tax incentives expected to accelerate the development of key industries, including tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture [6]. - The average nominal growth rates for these sectors over the past four years have been 5.9% for tourism, 13.4% for modern services, 36.8% for high-tech industries, and 10.7% for tropical agriculture, indicating robust economic momentum [6]. - The establishment of the first commercial space launch site in Hainan has positioned the region as a leader in commercial aerospace, with successful launches contributing to the local economy [6]. International Trade and Cooperation - Hainan's strategic location enhances its role as a hub for international trade, with plans to strengthen economic cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region, particularly through RCEP [8]. - The Hainan Free Trade Port aims to serve as a strategic link between China's large market and the RCEP market, facilitating greater economic integration and cooperation with ASEAN countries [8].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "second line port" at Sanya Port marks a new beginning for Hainan rubber processing companies to enter the mainland market, leveraging the duty-free processing and value-added policies of the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] Group 1: Customs and Trade Facilitation - The first batch of goods from Hainan's rubber processing industry successfully passed through the customs checkpoint at Sanya Port, highlighting the efficiency of the new customs procedures [1] - The customs process utilizes a smart regulatory platform for precise analysis, allowing for "one declaration, one inspection, and one release," which significantly speeds up the customs clearance process [1] Group 2: Future Developments - The customs authority plans to continuously optimize the "second line" customs process to better support local processing enterprises in expanding their market reach in the mainland [1] - There is a focus on tracking the implementation of Hainan Free Trade Port policies to enhance the development of local industries and ensure high-quality growth [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 发布日期： 2025-12-12 〔2025〕155号 责任编辑：李铁民 各有关单位： 近期，我所收到云南农垦集团有限责任公司关于注销部分全乳胶注册工厂的申请，根据《上海期货交易 所国产天然橡胶交割商品注册管理规定》，经研究决定： 一、同意注销云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司景洪第一制胶厂、云南天然橡胶产业集团西 双版纳景阳有限公司东风第三制胶厂、云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司勐养制胶厂、云南 天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司橄榄坝第二制胶厂、云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限 公司勐腊制胶厂、云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司勐满第一制胶厂等6家天然橡胶加工厂 注册资格； | 序号 | 工厂名称 | 生产代码 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司景洪第 一制胶厂 | YJ-01-01 | | 2 | 云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司东风第 三制胶厂 | YJ-02-03 | | 3 | 云南天然橡胶产业集团西双版纳景阳有限公司 勐养制 胶厂 | ...