AI+商业航天重要观点更新 20251221 摘要 商业航天明年（2026 年）预计加速发展，卫星发射和招标量至少增长 三倍，政策支持（《十五规划》），资本密集落地，以及大国太空竞争 加剧是主要驱动因素。 商业火箭和太空算力是商业航天的重要方向。SpaceX 计划 2026 年 IPO，估值 1.5 万亿美元，国内可重复使用火箭技术逐渐成熟，产业加 速发展趋势不变。 国内商业航天企业估值远低于海外龙头，中国正通过母基金计划撬动万 亿产业基金，加速前沿产业发展，缩小差距。 长 12 甲火箭发射推迟短期影响有限，不改产业长期增长趋势。建议珍 惜低估核心龙头公司筹码，关注信科移动和中国卫星。 创世纪公司以加工中心起家，目前专注于通用机床和专用机床，在国内 金属切削机床行业领先，正经历国际化（越南基地）和高端化（AI 领 域）转型。 创世纪在 AI 领域布局人形机器人硬件加工和液冷板加工，已服务多家国 内外头部人形机器人公司，相关设备销量增长迅速，预计 2025 年和 2026 年利润显著增长。 AI 数据中心对高效节能冷水机组和压缩机需求激增，磁悬浮离心压缩机 成为主流选择，预计 2026 年市场规模接近 300 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of stock performance in the export chain, particularly highlighting the importance of earnings seasons for price movements and the need for companies to deliver on EPS expectations to drive stock prices upward [2][8][12]. Export Chain Performance - The stock performance of export chain companies tends to rise during earnings seasons, with a focus on EPS growth rather than valuation increases [2][8]. - As of March 2024, many companies in the export chain have seen their PE ratios fall to a favorable range of 10-15X, indicating potential for upward movement as earnings reports approach [11][12]. - Key sectors such as transformers, wind power equipment, motorcycles, air conditioners, injection molding machines, buses, and hand tools/electric tools have shown over 10% growth in exports during January-February 2024 [12][15]. Machinery Sector - The machinery sector is characterized by cyclical demand, with overseas durable goods and industrial products showing strong competitive advantages [19][20]. - Companies like Juxing Technology and Quanfeng Holdings are recommended for their strong positions in overseas durable goods, while SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others are highlighted for their industrial products [21][22]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing a shift due to U.S. tariffs, which have accelerated the competitive landscape, benefiting leading companies with overseas production capabilities [30][34]. - Companies such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang are recommended for their high export ratios to the U.S. and strong growth prospects [35][38]. Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector is expected to face challenges in Q1 2025, with a decline in export amounts due to increased tariffs from the U.S. [39][44]. - However, many companies have global production layouts that help mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some benefiting from large customer orders [44][45]. Military Industry - The military industry is poised for growth due to global demand for military equipment and the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Europe [47][50]. - Companies like Guorui Technology and Aerospace South Lake are highlighted for their potential in military trade, with a focus on global expansion opportunities [48][56].