Core Viewpoint - China's economy shows a steady growth trend with a GDP of 10,150.36 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% in the first three quarters, and a growth of 4.8% in the third quarter [1][3]. Economic Performance - The GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters is an acceleration of 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year and the same period last year, respectively [3]. - The economic increment reached 3,967.9 billion yuan, which is an increase of 136.8 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Employment and Prices - The average urban unemployment rate for the first three quarters stood at 5.2%, unchanged from the first half of the year [4]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a slight decline of 0.1%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.6%, with a notable rise of 1.0% in September [4]. International Trade and Currency - The scale of goods import and export reached a historical high for the same period, with a gradual increase in growth rate [5]. - As of the end of September, foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.3 trillion USD, and the RMB exchange rate showed a stable upward trend [5]. Policy and Development - A series of macro policies have been implemented to stimulate high-quality development and expand domestic demand [7]. - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [9]. - Investment in equipment and tools saw a year-on-year growth of 14.0%, contributing to an overall investment growth of 2.0 percentage points [9]. Innovation and Technology - Significant advancements in technology and innovation have been made, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.6% year-on-year [10]. - The digital product manufacturing sector also experienced a growth of 9.7% in the same period [10]. Market Dynamics - The implementation of policies aimed at improving market competition has led to a reduction in the year-on-year decline of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [11]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target of around 5% remains solid, supported by internal economic stability and policy measures [12]. - Recent indicators, such as the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showing an upward trend, suggest positive momentum for the economy [13].

Core Insights - In June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 715.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [1] - The manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with profits shifting from a 4.1% decline in May to a 1.4% increase in June [1] - Cumulatively, in the first half of the year, the operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.5%, while profits fell by 1.8% [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Performance - In June, the operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 1.0% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as in May, which supports the recovery of corporate profits [1] - The profit decline for industrial enterprises narrowed in June, with the equipment manufacturing sector showing rapid profit growth [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector's operating income grew by 7.0% year-on-year, and profits shifted from a 2.9% decline in May to a 9.6% increase in June, contributing significantly to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [1] Group 2: High-end and Green Manufacturing - Profits in high-end manufacturing sectors such as electronic materials, aircraft manufacturing, and marine engineering equipment grew by 68.1%, 19.0%, and 17.8% respectively [2] - The production of smart and automated products accelerated, leading to profit increases in related industries, with smart consumer devices and measuring instruments seeing profits rise by 40.9% and 12.5% respectively [2] - Green production and lifestyle trends positively impacted profits in sectors like lithium-ion battery manufacturing, biomass energy generation, and environmental monitoring instruments, with profit growth rates of 72.8%, 24.5%, and 22.2% respectively [2] Group 3: Policy Impact on Profit Growth - The expansion of "two new" policies and subsidies has significantly improved profits in related industries, with medical equipment manufacturing, specialized printing equipment, and general parts manufacturing seeing profit increases of 12.1%, 10.5%, and 9.5% respectively [3] - The "replace old with new" policy for consumer goods has shown continued effectiveness, with profits in sectors like smart drones, computer manufacturing, and air conditioning equipment rising by 160.0%, 97.2%, and 21.0% respectively [3] - Related industries such as optoelectronic devices and computer components also experienced profit growth of 29.6% and 16.9% respectively [3]

财经杂志 . 文/中国社科院世经政所博士后 谢慧敏、 中国社科院世经政所研究员 杨盼 盼 、中国社科院世经政所研究员 徐奇渊 4月以来，特朗普政府的关税政策经历了剧烈波动与多次重大调整。 特 别 是 针 对 中 国 ， 美 国 先 是 施 加 " 对 等 关 税 " ， 随 后 又 多 次 提 升 关 税 ， 最 终 将 税 率 加 征 至 14 5% ， 这 可 被 视 为 一 次 极 限 关 税 的 压 力 测 试。 在如此高的关税下，4月中国对美出口同比下降21.3%，下降幅度显 著低于此前各类模拟测算的结果。其原因何在？可持续性如何？本 文尝试基于美国进口商提单层面的微观数据做逐一回答。 以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者谢慧敏 等 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 抢进口在"对等关税"早期发挥作用 基于Panjiva数据，4月15日-5月13日，美国从中国海运进口货值同比下降15.5%，这与中国海关总 署公布的4月中国对美出口下降约21%较为 ...