21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 8月21日至23日，全球央行年会在美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话备受关注。 目前货币市场交易员预期，美联储在今年9月降息25个基点的概率达到80%。 会议前夕，投资者观望情绪愈加浓厚，亚太市场涨跌不一。东南亚股市多数下跌。泰国SET指数周跌 0.48%，报1253.39点；越南胡志明指数周涨1.04%，报1647.03点；印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）周跌 0.5%，报7858.85点；新加坡海峡指数周涨0.53%，报4253.02点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.34%， 报1597.47点；菲律宾马尼拉指数周跌0.53%，报6281.58点。 亚太其他主要股指同样下跌，日经225指数周跌1.72%或745.02点，报42633.29点；韩国KOSPI指数周跌 1.76%，报3168.73点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨0.32%，报8967.4点。 国际金融论坛学术委员、上海外国语大学金融创新与发展研究中心主任章玉贵向21世纪经济报道记者表 示，上周亚太股市震荡与市场交易主体的观望情绪偏浓存在一定关系，市场交易员押注美联储有极大概 率在9月启动降息。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the global supply of vegetable oils is increasing, with domestic supply in China being stable, and prices are within a historically reasonable range [1] - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is expected to reach 235 million tons in the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year, with soybean oil, palm oil, and sunflower seed oil contributing significantly to this growth [1] - Key factors to watch in the future vegetable oil market include tariff policies, soybean arrival conditions in the fourth quarter, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1] Group 2 - Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with industrial consumption growing faster than edible consumption [2] - By the 2025/2026 season, global vegetable oil consumption is expected to further increase to 230 million tons, with industrial consumption accounting for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season [2] - The growth in biodiesel production is significantly driving the increase in global industrial consumption of vegetable oils, with nearly 20% of vegetable oils being used for biodiesel [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the significant role of the edible vegetable oil market in China, noting that while imports have decreased, they still dominate the market. The overall price of vegetable oils in China has increased due to global supply-demand balance, but remains within a historically reasonable range. Future market trends will be influenced by tariff policies, soybean import conditions in Q4, palm oil production increases, and biodiesel industry policies [1][2]. Supply Analysis - The global production of nine major vegetable oils is on the rise, with an expected output of 235 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, an increase of 6.37 million tons year-on-year. This includes a production increase of 2.65 million tons for soybean oil, 1.79 million tons for palm oil, and 1.65 million tons for sunflower seed oil [1]. Demand Analysis - For the 2024/2025 season, global vegetable oil consumption is projected to reach 224 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. This includes a 2.3% increase in edible consumption and a 2.7% increase in industrial consumption. By the 2025/2026 season, total consumption is expected to rise to 230 million tons. Notably, industrial consumption is anticipated to account for 28% of total consumption, up from 22.2% in the 2010/2011 season, indicating a significant shift in consumption structure [2].

据蒙古国家统计局数据，2025年7月蒙古生活必需品价格环比上涨1.3%。其 中，土豆价格每公斤为2385蒙图（约0.66美元），上涨54.2%，高筋面粉价格 每公斤为3263蒙图（约0.91美元），上涨2.5%，带骨牛肉价格每公斤为21565 蒙图（约6.01美元），上涨1.3%，无骨牛肉价格每公斤为24565蒙图（约6.84美 元），上涨0.8%，面包价格每公斤为2497蒙图（约0.7美元），上涨0.2%，植 物油价格每公斤为7548蒙图（约2.1美元），上涨1.3%，苹果价格每公斤为 7363蒙图（约2.05美元），上涨2%。马肉、带骨羊肉、低筋面粉、牛奶、萝 卜、白菜、洋葱、蔓菁、红菜头等价格小幅下降。 （原标题：2025年7月蒙古生活必需品价格环比上涨1.3%） ...

Core Insights - In July, global food prices reached a two-year high, driven by rising international meat and vegetable oil prices [1] Industry Summary - The Food Price Index of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization averaged 130.1 points in July, marking a 1.6% increase from June and the highest level since February 2023 [1] - In Ireland, food prices in July increased by 4.7% compared to the same month last year, according to data from the Central Statistics Office [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The August USDA supply and demand report tightened the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter [1]. - In the domestic market, the supply of oilseeds will tighten in the fourth quarter, and the vegetable oil and soybean meal sectors are likely to rise, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - The August USDA supply - and - demand report was overall bullish, laying the foundation for a tightened global soybean supply in the second half of the year [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content US Soybean Supply and Demand - The US soybean planting area was 80.9 million acres (July expectation: 83.4 million acres), the harvest area was 80.1 million acres (July expectation: 82.5 million acres), the yield per acre was 53.6 bushels (July expectation: 52.5 bushels), the production was 4.292 billion bushels (July expectation: 4.335 billion bushels), and the ending stocks were 290 million bushels (July expectation: 310 million bushels) [8]. - Argentina's soybean production was 50.9 million tons (July expectation: 49.9 million tons), Brazil's was 169 million tons (July expectation: 169 million tons), and the global ending stocks were 124.9 million tons (July expectation: 126.07 million tons) [8]. Domestic Situation - As of the report, China had not purchased US soybeans. The inventories of domestic soybeans and soybean meal had reached a phased peak and would decline later, tightening the supply. Coupled with the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed, the overall supply of domestic oilseeds would tighten in the fourth quarter [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The USDA's August supply - demand report is overall bullish, laying the foundation for a tightening of global soybean supply in the second half of the year. In the fourth quarter, the domestic overall oilseed supply will tighten, and the vegetable oil and double - low rapeseed sectors are likely to rise and difficult to fall, suggesting buying on dips [5][8]. 3. Key Points by Category Global Situation - The USDA's August supply - demand report is bullish, with the planted area unexpectedly reduced. The US soybean planted area is 80.9 million acres (July expectation: 83.4 million acres), the harvested area is 80.1 million acres (July expectation: 82.5 million acres), the yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (July expectation: 52.5 bushels), the production is 4.292 billion bushels (July expectation: 4.335 billion bushels), and the ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July expectation: 310 million bushels). Argentina's soybean production is 50.9 million tons (July expectation: 49.9 million tons), Brazil's is 169 million tons (July expectation: 169 million tons), and the global ending inventory is 124.9 million tons (July expectation: 126.07 million tons) [8]. Domestic Situation - As of the time of writing, China has not purchased US soybeans. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have reached a phased peak and will decline later, laying the foundation for a tightening supply. Coupled with the anti - dumping of Canadian canola, the domestic overall oilseed supply will tighten in the fourth quarter [5].

Group 1: Food Price Index Overview - The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.1 points in July 2025, up 1.6% from June, driven mainly by rising international prices of meat and vegetable oils [1] - The index is 7.6% higher than July 2024 but remains 18.8% lower than the peak in March 2022 [1] Group 2: Grain Prices - The FAO Grain Price Index averaged 106.5 points in July, down 0.8% from June, with wheat and sorghum prices declining more than the increases in corn and barley prices [1] - Seasonal supply from the Northern Hemisphere's latest wheat harvest exerted downward pressure on prices, although poor growing conditions in parts of North America provided some support [1] - The FAO Rice Price Index decreased by 1.8% in July due to ample export supplies and weak import demand [1] Group 3: Vegetable Oil Prices - The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 166.8 points in July, rising 7.1% to a three-year high, primarily due to increases in palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil prices [1] - Strong import demand and expanded price advantages drove up international palm oil prices, while robust demand for raw materials in the biofuel sector supported soybean oil prices [1] - Sunflower oil prices increased due to tightening seasonal supplies in the Black Sea region, whereas global rapeseed oil prices fell under pressure from new crop supplies in Europe [1] Group 4: Meat Prices - The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 127.3 points in July, up 1.2% from June, reaching a historical high, mainly driven by rising beef and lamb prices due to strong import demand, particularly from China and the U.S. [2] - Poultry prices saw a slight increase as Brazil regained its status as a high-pathogenic avian influenza-free zone, leading to the resumption of imports by several major trading partners [2] - Conversely, pork prices declined due to weak global demand and ample supply, especially in the EU [2] Group 5: Dairy and Sugar Prices - The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 155.3 points in July, slightly down 0.1% from June, marking the first month of decline since April 2024, with butter and milk powder prices falling due to ample export supplies and weak import demand, particularly in Asia [2] - International cheese prices continued to rise due to strong demand from Asia and the Near East, while EU export supplies tightened [2] - The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 103.3 points in July, down 0.2% for the fifth consecutive month, with forecasts of a recovery in global sugar production (mainly from Brazil, India, and Thailand) putting downward pressure on prices, although signs of rebounding global sugar import demand limited the overall decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - This week, canola oil futures experienced fluctuations and closed higher, influenced by various market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Canola oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [1] - The market is currently in a "weather-dominated" phase for canola seed growth, with recent favorable rainfall in Canada alleviating some market pressure [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The potential restoration of canola seed trade between China and Australia may add future supply pressure [1] - High-frequency data indicates an increase in palm oil production in July, but a decline in exports, which is expected to continue to build inventory and restrain palm oil prices [1] - Indonesia's significant export increase and low inventory levels, along with positive news regarding biodiesel from the US and Indonesia, are supportive for the oilseed market [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Conditions - The domestic market is currently in an off-season for oil consumption, leading to a relaxed supply of vegetable oils and high inventory pressure for canola oil mills [1] - A decrease in operating rates at oil mills has reduced production pressure for canola oil, while fewer canola seed purchases in the third quarter have lowered supply-side pressures [1] Group 4: Trading Strategy - The market strategy suggests a focus on short-term participation due to the current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a comprehensive guide on how to deduct input VAT for agricultural products, addressing common questions from taxpayers regarding the calculation and eligibility of input tax deductions [2][3]. Group 1: Input VAT Calculation for Agricultural Products - When general taxpayers purchase agricultural products with a 9% VAT invoice, the input VAT can be calculated as 10% if used for producing or processing goods with a 13% tax rate, otherwise, it is 9% [4]. - For purchases from small-scale taxpayers with a 3% VAT invoice, the input VAT is calculated based on the invoice amount and a 9% deduction rate, with an additional 1% deduction if used for producing goods with a 13% tax rate [5]. Group 2: Eligibility of Input VAT Deductions - Input VAT paid on imported goods can be deducted if the taxpayer has paid the import VAT, regardless of whether the payment for the goods has been made [6]. - Ordinary invoices obtained from wholesale or retail purchases of exempt agricultural products cannot be used for input VAT deductions [7]. - Input VAT from small-scale taxpayers with a 1% VAT invoice cannot be deducted at a 9% rate; it must be calculated based on the invoice price and a 1% deduction rate [8]. Group 3: Special Cases and Regulations - Taxpayers producing specific products like liquid milk, alcohol, and meat products can participate in a pilot program for input VAT deduction based on the purchase of eligible agricultural products [9]. - If agricultural products are used for both 13% taxable goods and other services, separate accounting is required for input VAT deductions [10]. - Input VAT cannot be deducted for goods used in simplified tax methods, exempt projects, or personal consumption [9]. - Non-normal losses of agricultural products require the reversal of previously deducted input VAT [9]. - Taxpayers must contact tax authorities to classify as "deep processing enterprises" for agricultural products to utilize an additional 1% deduction [10].