证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the implementation of a national childcare subsidy policy, which will provide a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year until the child reaches three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The policy aims to stimulate birth rates and consumer confidence, with expectations that local governments will accelerate their responses to the central government's initiatives [1] - The increase in newborn population is anticipated to boost demand in the maternal and infant sectors, benefiting related industries [1] Group 2 - The CSI Consumer 50 Index rose by 0.8%, while the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index fell by 1.9% [2] - The CSI Consumer 50 Index consists of 50 leading companies in major consumer sectors, with over 75% of its composition in food and beverage, and home appliances [2] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI Consumer 50 Index is 16.8 times, with a valuation percentile of 3.6% since its inception in 2019 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and the potential investment opportunities during different phases of the market, particularly in the context of the "smile curve" investment strategy. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with large-cap stocks showing minimal volatility while small-cap stocks faced more significant drops [2][3] - The value style of investing has proven to be relatively resilient during this period [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw declines, but it has been relatively strong compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's drop being less severe [5][7] - The Hong Kong dividend index has shown strength, indicating a positive trend in dividend-paying stocks [8] Global Market Context - Global stock markets are experiencing fluctuations primarily due to regional conflicts, which are affecting investor sentiment but are not expected to have a significant impact on the operational performance of listed companies [10][11][12] Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of the "smile curve" in investment, highlighting the benefits of dollar-cost averaging during market downturns to lower costs and achieve profitability when the market recovers [14] - The formula for index returns is presented: Index Value = Valuation * Earnings + Dividends, emphasizing the role of earnings growth as a key driver for long-term index appreciation [16][20] - Historical data shows that earnings growth is not uniform, with certain years experiencing slowdowns or negative growth, while others see rapid growth [21][22] Sector Performance Analysis - Specific sectors are analyzed in the context of the current market cycle: - Technology stocks in Hong Kong have recently entered a recovery phase after significant declines in 2021-2022, with earnings expected to rebound in 2024-2025 [27] - The pharmaceutical sector is following a similar trajectory but is lagging by about two years [28] - The consumer sector is still in a downturn, similar to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating ongoing challenges [29] - The Hang Seng Index has shown a 16% year-on-year earnings growth in Q1, ranking among the top global indices [31][32] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that economic downturns can present investment opportunities, while overly optimistic views during economic booms can lead to market corrections [35][36] - The cyclical nature of the economy means that investors should be prepared for both low and high market phases, with the potential for attractive buying opportunities during downturns [34]