【海外策略】 科技是港股下半年胜负手——海外研究联合报告 下半年港股牛市继续，较 A 股或更优 。 年初以来的中国资产重估行情中，港股整体涨幅较 A 股更为可观，创新药、新消费、 AI 应用等方向亮点纷呈。借鉴 历史上港股占优行情，我们认为本轮行情或和其中的 2012-2014 年具有一定相似性，港股表现强劲源于部分资产更具稀缺性。当下港股科技、消费资产与 当前产业发展趋势更契合、基本面更优，或吸引南下持续流入，支撑港股继续向上。 【军工】 美国北约酝酿新机制援乌，我国成功发射巴基斯坦遥感卫星01星 大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，军工长期向好。 我们认为，大国博弈加剧是长期趋势，美国及其盟友国防战略重心逐步向印太转向，中国周边紧张局势可能逐步 加剧，和平需要保卫，加大国防投入是必选项，军工长期趋势向好。 2027 年要确保实现建军百年奋斗目标，十四五期间有望加速补短板。 军工板块上涨， 美国北约酝酿新机制援乌 。 1 ） 上周（ 7.26-8.1 ）上证综指下跌 0.94% ，创业板指数下跌 0.74% ，国防军工指数上涨 0.66% ，跑赢 大盘 1.60 个百分点，排名第 4/29 。 2 ）上周（ 7.26- ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a correction phase, returning to a volatile state, with the main structural breakthrough yet to be established. The market will digest the expected economic growth slowdown in the second half of 2025 and the policy focus on structural adjustments [4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The focus on self-sufficiency and defense industry presents a potential opportunity, with a "barbell strategy" (high dividend + micro-cap stocks) likely to see a rebound [4]. - The main catalyst for future upward movement is the trend against "involution," which is expected to improve the profitability of midstream manufacturing in the long term, although short-term momentum may face resistance [4]. Group 2: Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical and computer sectors (IT services, software development) are highlighted as key areas of interest [5]. - In the short term, consumer goods are expected to have a rebound potential, following the recent activity in Hong Kong's cyclical stocks, indicating a time window for revaluation of consumer goods [8]. - In the medium term, the probability of a reversal in the consumer goods sector is increasing, with the rise in consumer goods prices expected to solidify the current valuation of new consumption sectors [9]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focused on the development of the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need for a stable and active capital market [11]. - The policy mentions the attractiveness and inclusivity of the Chinese capital market, reflecting ongoing attention to its healthy development [12]. - Non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows signs of marginal slowdown, with input prices performing better than sales prices [15].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that ETFs will become the ultimate destination for most retail investors, allowing them to act as their own fund managers [1][4][5] - As of July 25, there are 458 indices tracked by ETFs, with 77 indices showing over 20% returns this year, indicating a bullish market [7][8] - The average return for non-money market ETFs this year is 9.02%, with a median return of 12.52% [9] Group 2 - The article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has been a significant performer, with 38 out of the 77 bullish indices being Hong Kong indices [10][11] - Key themes in the market include the recovery of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in innovative pharmaceuticals and technology sectors, as well as resource stocks benefiting from demand expectations [11] - The article provides a detailed table of top-performing ETFs, with the Hang Seng Innovation Drug Index showing a return of 90.79% and a net inflow of 6.17 billion [12][13] Group 3 - The article discusses the importance of asset allocation, stating that no asset will always rise, but there will always be assets that are rising [20][21] - It mentions the concept of time diversification, where investors can buy in phases rather than trying to time the market perfectly [36] - The article concludes that the "three-part method" of investment emphasizes long-termism and risk diversification through asset, market, and timing allocation [56]

Market Overview - The market experienced a V-shaped movement today, with an overall decline in the morning followed by a rebound in the afternoon, maintaining a rating of 4.8 stars [1] - The CSI 300 index saw a slight increase, while small and medium-sized stocks experienced a minor decline [2] - Both value and growth styles faced declines [3] Banking Sector - The banking index has shown significant volatility in recent days [4] - Last Friday, the banking index reached a high valuation before undergoing a correction [5] Growth Sectors - The ChiNext and other growth styles saw an increase [6] - Hong Kong stocks remained relatively strong, with a significant rise occurring after the close of A-shares, particularly in technology stocks, which led to a more than 2.5% increase in the Hong Kong technology index [6] Industry Recovery - In this bear market, the technology and pharmaceutical sectors were the first to show signs of earnings recovery [7] - In the first quarter of this year, the technology and pharmaceutical sectors experienced year-on-year profit growth, contributing to the rise in Hong Kong's technology and pharmaceutical stocks [8]

Group 1 - The overall market showed an upward trend, with small-cap stocks outperforming larger ones [2][3] - Value style stocks experienced a decline, particularly in the banking sector, which saw a significant drop after initially reaching overvalued levels [4] - Growth style stocks, especially in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, performed strongly, indicating a potential shift towards a more favorable market environment [5] Group 2 - The Hong Kong technology sector has shown distinct characteristics over the past year, with notable fluctuations in its index [6] - The Hong Kong Technology Index experienced four significant waves of price movements, including a 36% drop followed by a 39% rebound within a short period [10][13] - The index's performance has been driven by a combination of valuation increases and substantial profit growth, contrasting with the previous years of declining profits and valuations [20] Group 3 - The investment strategy in the Hong Kong technology sector should focus on controlling exposure to individual industries, ideally keeping it within 15-20% for stability [23] - Institutional investors play a significant role in the Hong Kong technology market, with profit growth driving stock price increases [24] - The cyclical nature of profit reports aligns with the index's performance, suggesting that continued profit growth in upcoming reports could sustain upward momentum [26][27] Group 4 - The article emphasizes that not only the Hong Kong technology sector but also the broader Hong Kong pharmaceutical and technology markets are driven by profit growth [28] - The current period is characterized as a vacuum before the second-quarter earnings reports, which will be crucial for assessing future performance [29]

最近市场又在讨论，啥时候站上3500点。 咱们估值表刚定期更新那会，市场讨论的是什么时候站上2000点。 因为当时市场在5星大熊市，指数几次上攻2000点，又跌回到一千多点，站上2000点很难。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘盘中上涨，到收盘略微下跌，还在4.8星。 大中小盘股微跌。 大盘股波动较小，中小盘下跌略多。 消费、医药等行业微涨。 昨天上涨较多的港股，今天下跌。 港股红利波动较小。港股科技股下跌多一些。 不过因为前段时间港股科技上涨，今天回调后还在正常估值。 暂时还没回到低估。 后来经历了2015年中小盘牛市、2016-2017年价值股牛市后，上证指数站上2000点，就没回到1000多点了。 到了这几年，市场又讨论，上证指数啥时候站上3000点、3100点、3200点、3300点··· 指数点数=估值*盈利。 盈利长期上涨，带动指数点数提升。 可能再过几年，讨论的是什么时候登上4000点、5000点了。 1. 有朋友问，不同星级下，会有什么投资机会？ 该如何投资呢？ 星级可以用来帮助判断市场整体的估值情况。 星级代表的是估值情况。 （1）5点几星 是估值最低的阶段，股票基金投资最好 ...

Group 1: ETF Market Performance - Approximately 10% of over 1200 ETFs in the market saw gains, with power-related ETFs leading the charge, accounting for 8 out of the top 10 gainers [1] - The Power ETF (159611) topped the market with a 2.02% increase, and all 55 component stocks rose, including Huayin Power and YN Energy, which hit the daily limit [1] - As of July 4, the overall net inflow of funds into ETFs was about 1.36 billion yuan, with significant outflows from broad-based ETFs exceeding 6 billion yuan in the past week [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific ETF Trends - Innovation drug-related ETFs experienced a pullback, with 9 out of the top 10 decliners being in this category, some dropping over 2% [3] - The Huatai Baichuan Innovation Drug ETF (517120) fell by 2.21% after a previous week of over 5% gains, indicating volatility in this sector [4] - Funds favored Hong Kong technology-focused ETFs, with significant net inflows, particularly the Hong Kong Internet ETF (159792), which saw over 2 billion yuan in net inflow in the past week [6][7] Group 3: New ETF Launches - On July 7, 17 new ETFs were launched, including the first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Bond ETFs, which saw strong initial sales [11] - The Sci-Tech Bond ETFs are designed for institutional investors seeking exposure to technology innovation assets and for individual investors looking for stable returns [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that fund managers are accelerating their portfolio adjustments as the effect of popular sectors attracting public funds diminishes and the market approaches the semi-annual performance reporting period [1][2][3] - Many funds are showing discrepancies between their net asset value (NAV) movements and the performance of their top holdings, suggesting that fund managers are likely engaging in stock replacements [2][3] - The trend of reallocating investments is evident as fund managers are gradually shifting their strategies for the second half of the year, moving away from previously popular sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5] Group 2 - The phenomenon of funds withdrawing from popular Hong Kong stocks began around June 11, with significant declines observed in previously high-performing stocks, indicating vulnerability in valuations as mid-term performance disclosures approach [5] - A focus on "three low" categories—low price, low valuation, and low allocation—has emerged as a key strategy for fund managers aiming to mitigate performance drawdowns amid rising risk aversion [6] - There are indications that the previously concentrated positions in high-valuation stocks are beginning to loosen, with fund managers expressing surprise at the continued high allocations to stocks that have seen substantial short-term price increases [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of various industries, particularly focusing on consumer, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors, highlighting their performance during different economic phases and the potential for recovery in the future [8][10][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - The overall market showed a slight decline at the opening but the drop narrowed by the close, with the CSI All Share Index experiencing a minor decrease [1]. - The CSI 300 Index saw a slight increase, while small-cap stocks faced more significant declines [2]. - Consumer stocks are on the rise, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [4]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong has recently experienced a downturn after weeks of gains, approaching a state of undervaluation [5][6][7]. - The pharmaceutical sector faced a decline in earnings from 2022 to the first half of 2024, but signs of recovery were noted in early 2024, with significant gains in the first quarter [11]. - The consumer sector has historically faced downturns during economic crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2012-2013 economic slowdown, but has also seen rapid recoveries following stimulus measures [13][16]. Group 3: Economic Cycles - The cyclical nature of industries means that periods of low earnings growth and low valuations are often followed by recovery phases where both earnings and valuations improve [26][28]. - The current consumer sector is compared to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating it is still in a low phase before a potential recovery [19][28]. - The article emphasizes that all sectors, including finance and energy, experience similar cyclical patterns, suggesting that investment opportunities arise during low periods [20][25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles and the potential investment opportunities during different phases of the market, particularly in the context of the "smile curve" investment strategy. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with large-cap stocks showing minimal volatility while small-cap stocks faced more significant drops [2][3] - The value style of investing has proven to be relatively resilient during this period [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw declines, but it has been relatively strong compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's drop being less severe [5][7] - The Hong Kong dividend index has shown strength, indicating a positive trend in dividend-paying stocks [8] Global Market Context - Global stock markets are experiencing fluctuations primarily due to regional conflicts, which are affecting investor sentiment but are not expected to have a significant impact on the operational performance of listed companies [10][11][12] Investment Strategy Insights - The article introduces the concept of the "smile curve" in investment, highlighting the benefits of dollar-cost averaging during market downturns to lower costs and achieve profitability when the market recovers [14] - The formula for index returns is presented: Index Value = Valuation * Earnings + Dividends, emphasizing the role of earnings growth as a key driver for long-term index appreciation [16][20] - Historical data shows that earnings growth is not uniform, with certain years experiencing slowdowns or negative growth, while others see rapid growth [21][22] Sector Performance Analysis - Specific sectors are analyzed in the context of the current market cycle: - Technology stocks in Hong Kong have recently entered a recovery phase after significant declines in 2021-2022, with earnings expected to rebound in 2024-2025 [27] - The pharmaceutical sector is following a similar trajectory but is lagging by about two years [28] - The consumer sector is still in a downturn, similar to the pharmaceutical sector two years ago, indicating ongoing challenges [29] - The Hang Seng Index has shown a 16% year-on-year earnings growth in Q1, ranking among the top global indices [31][32] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes that economic downturns can present investment opportunities, while overly optimistic views during economic booms can lead to market corrections [35][36] - The cyclical nature of the economy means that investors should be prepared for both low and high market phases, with the potential for attractive buying opportunities during downturns [34]