August 22, 2025 06:44 AM GMT 中国⸺经济温度计 | Asia Pacific 基本面VS资金面？ 8月经济似在放缓，但流动性、反内卷和促消费却支撑市场叙 事。相比历史上的"水牛"，目前股市杠杆仍处合理区间， 不至引发政策干预。我们列出了资金和叙事方面值得关注的 重要指标。 三季度GDP同比增速或回落到4.5%左右：高基数⹖抢退坡影响，8月份 同比增速或将从7月份的7.2%放缓至5-6%的间。本月高频数据显示中国对美集装 箱船⺆数量继续下滑，⹛映退坡正在进行时。内需方面，尽管中央已于7月底 之⯥向地方政府下达了第三批690亿人民币的消费品以旧换新国补资金，8月⯥10 天汽车与线上家电销售同比在低基数的Ⲃⱱ下依然大幅下跌。这或⹛映了部⮇地 对国补资金使用监管的ⱶ强，以⹖某些城市采"每日限额领⯉"的影响。同 时，房地产持续下行所带来的负财富效应也可能继续拖累消费信心。⺁一方面， 天气扰ⲁ⬵弱，⹖⯥期政府债⯉资金的拨付或有Ⲃ当月基建增速小幅回ⶍ。但考 虑⮽未来⭓个月财政脉⫿⬵弱，其回ⶍ态ⲡ或难以持续。 流动性和宏观叙事支撑市场情绪：我们股票策略团队编⯆的大摩自由流ⲁ性指数 自今年6月起已由 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Rebar is for range trading; Iron ore is expected to be oscillating upwards; Coking coal and coke are to trade sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is for range trading or staying on the sidelines; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel is suggested to stay on the sidelines or sell on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are for range trading [1][11][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for shorting 09 and going long on 05 for arbitrage; Caustic soda is expected to oscillate; Styrene is expected to oscillate; Rubber is expected to oscillate; Urea is expected to trade sideways; Methanol is expected to trade sideways; Polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations [1][20][29] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be oscillating upwards; Apples are expected to be oscillating upwards; Jujubes are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][34][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies; Eggs are recommended to sell on rallies; Corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is expected to have range oscillations; Oils are expected to be oscillating upwards [1][36][44] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global economic and political situation, such as the "Trump - Putin meeting", US economic data, and China's monetary policy, has an impact on the financial and commodity markets [6] - The supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy factors of various commodities determine their price trends and investment strategies [8][20][34] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: After a short - term high, the market may oscillate and wash out positions, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6] - **Treasury bonds**: In the context of the continuous increase in trading volume in the equity market, there are potential risks in the bond market, such as the transfer of funds from funds and wealth management to the equity market and increased frictions in the inter - bank market. Short - term adjustments should be avoided [6] 3.2 Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost is at a neutral level, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to inventory increases, coking coal production resumption, and indirect steel exports [8] - **Iron ore**: The supply is slightly decreasing, and demand remains strong. With the National Day parade expectation, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [8][9] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply and demand contradictions of coking coal are not prominent, and the price has limited downside space but may have short - term adjustments. Coke is in a tight supply - demand pattern, and attention should be paid to production restrictions during the parade, iron - water production trends, and raw material price fluctuations [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The macro environment is favorable, but short - term upward driving forces are insufficient. Low inventory provides support, and the price is expected to be oscillating upwards. The short - term operating range is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [11][12] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level. Although there are short - term negative factors, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [12] - **Nickel**: The medium - and long - term supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to hold short positions on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to have support, and range trading is recommended, with the reference range of 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton for the 09 contract [17] - **Silver and gold**: After the decline in precious metal prices due to factors such as the 7 - month PPI data in the US, there is support below. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price pullback [17][18] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports have uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 4900 - 5100 range [20][21] - **Caustic soda**: The supply is abundant, demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The price is expected to be oscillating upwards, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on the 2500 - yuan support level [22] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. Supply has the potential to increase, demand has risks of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate, temporarily focusing on the 7100 - 7400 range [24] - **Rubber**: The new - rubber release is affected by rain, and there is cost support. However, the inventory - removal speed may slow down in late August. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, focusing on the 15,200 - 15,600 range [26] - **Urea**: Supply is slightly decreasing, agricultural demand is scattered, and compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price has support below and pressure above, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is slightly decreasing, demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be oscillating weakly [29] - **Polyolefins**: The cost has uncertainties, and downstream demand is in the off - season to peak - season transition. The price is expected to be oscillating weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and the PP2509 contract focusing on the 6900 - 7200 range [29][30] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to increase, and the industry is over - capacitated. It is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [32] 3.5 Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro environment is favorable, and with the approaching peak season, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34] - **Apples**: The inventory market is stable and dull, and the early - maturing market has quality differences. Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to be oscillating upwards [34][35] - **Jujubes**: The枣树 is in the fruit - swelling stage, and the market has certain trading volumes. The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the near term [35] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The price is oscillating at the bottom. The 09 contract has a long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 11 and 01 contracts have supply pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [36][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies. If the elimination process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on the 12 and 01 contracts. Overall, it is recommended to short the near - term and go long on the far - term contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is oscillating in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40][42] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean supply - demand situation is tightening, but the price increase is limited. The domestic supply is abundant in August and September. It is recommended to hold long positions on the M2511 and M2601 contracts and roll them, and spot enterprises should build long positions [43] - **Oils**: Although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections, the overall trend is still upward. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage of rapeseed oil [44][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry has shown mixed performance, with Under Armour reporting a 4% year-on-year revenue decline in FY2026Q1, amounting to $1.1 billion, and a net loss of $2.612 million [2][17]. - The North American market saw a 5% revenue decline to $670 million, while the international market's revenue decreased by 1% to $470 million, with EMEA market revenue increasing by 10% [3][17]. - Adidas reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in H1 2025, while HUGO BOSS and Ralph Lauren showed varied performance, with HUGO BOSS experiencing a 1% revenue increase in Q2 2025 and Ralph Lauren achieving a 14% revenue growth [6][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Performance - Under Armour's FY2026Q1 revenue decreased by 4% to $1.1 billion, with a net loss of $2.612 million compared to a loss of $30.5 million in the previous year [2][17]. - HUGO BOSS reported a 1% revenue increase in Q2 2025, while EBIT grew by 15% [6][57]. - Ralph Lauren's net revenue increased by 14% to $1.7 billion, with a net profit growth of 30.7% [59][60]. 2. Market Trends - The textile and apparel sector saw a 4.23% increase in the SW textile and apparel index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3 percentage points [19]. - The SW textile manufacturing PE-TTM is at 21.66 times, while the apparel and home textile PE-TTM is at 28.86 times, indicating varying valuation levels across sub-sectors [22]. 3. Regional Performance - North America experienced a 5% revenue decline, while EMEA markets grew by 10% [3][4]. - The Asia-Pacific market saw a 10% revenue decline, with Latin America declining by 15% [3][4]. 4. Consumer Behavior - The retail sales of sports and entertainment products grew by 22.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand in this segment [11]. - The overall retail sales in China for June 2025 reached 4.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, but showing a decline compared to previous months [48][49]. 5. Future Outlook - For FY2026Q2, Under Armour expects a revenue decline of 6%-7%, with a projected gross margin decrease of 3.4-3.6 percentage points [4][18]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the textile and apparel industry, with varying performance expected across different regions and product categories [4][18].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 望远镜系列 13 之 Deckers FY2026Q1 经营跟 踪：收入表现超预期，价格上调预计 Q2 受益 报告要点 [Table_Summary] FY2026Q1（2025/4/1-2025/6/30）Deckers 实现营收 9.6 亿美元，同比+17%，收入表现超预 期（彭博一致预期 9.0 亿美元）。毛利率同比-1.1pct 至 55.8%，预计主要受低毛利的经销渠道 强劲增长影响，但净利率受益于费用控制同比+0.4pct 至 14.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 柯睿 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 1）分品牌，UGG/HOKA/其他品牌营收分别+18.9%/+19.8%/-19.0%至 2.7/6.5/0.5 亿美 元，HOKA 及 UGG 表现均超公司预期，HOKA 高增主要受益于国际市场驱动，UGG 主 要受益于批 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reasons behind the high savings rate among Chinese households, emphasizing that it stems from a lack of confidence in financial stability rather than wealth accumulation. Group 1: Economic Context - Chinese economist Chen Hao states that the average family asset is 3 million, and if one-third of the increased savings of 15 trillion in 2022 were used for housing and consumption, the economy could recover [1][3] - Zhang Jun from Fudan University highlights that the high savings are due to fear of unexpected expenses, not because people are wealthy [3][4] Group 2: Financial Pressures - Young people are burdened with long-term mortgage debts, making it difficult to spend freely [6] - The cost of marriage, including dowries and housing, adds significant financial pressure, especially in major cities where expenses can reach millions [6][8] - Rural farmers face unpredictable income due to weather conditions, necessitating savings for emergencies [8][10] Group 3: Employment and Education Costs - Office workers experience intense competition and job insecurity, leading to minimal disposable income after basic expenses [10][12] - Parents are compelled to save for their children's education to ensure they do not fall behind, which requires substantial financial resources [10][12] Group 4: Health and Safety Concerns - Medical expenses, even for minor ailments, can be burdensome, prompting families to save for health-related costs [10][12] - The pandemic has reinforced the importance of being prepared for emergencies, leading to increased savings as a precautionary measure [12][14] - Overall, the lack of social safety nets and support systems drives individuals to rely on personal savings for financial security [12][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][36] Core Viewpoints - Economic performance is steadily recovering, but consumer confidence still needs further boosting. In June 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. The GDP for the first half of 2025 was 66.05 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1][3] - The overall economic operation in the first half of 2025 was stable, with consumption playing a significant supporting role. The total retail sales for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3][4] Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, with contributions from the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries at 3.6%, 36.2%, and 60.2% respectively. The growth pace aligns with the annual target of 5% [3][4] - The retail sales of goods increased by 5.1%, while restaurant income grew by 4.3% in the first half of 2025. The service retail sales also saw a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3][4] Consumer Confidence - The average urban unemployment rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.2%, showing stability, but consumer confidence has not significantly improved. The consumer confidence index was at 88.0 in May, indicating a low level of confidence [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies likely to benefit from the recovery in tourism and travel demand, such as Lingnan Holdings and Tongcheng Travel. Other recommended companies include those in the business and exhibition sectors, as well as various hospitality and entertainment firms [3][4]

Core Insights - The transformation of China's consumption structure is characterized by a shift from single to diversified and from basic to high-quality consumption, requiring systematic policies and precise actions to stimulate market vitality and support high-quality economic development [1][3][5] Consumption Structure Dynamics - China's consumption structure has undergone significant changes, evolving through several stages from basic needs to more complex consumption patterns, with a notable shift towards service and cultural consumption [3][4] - The decline in food expenditure and the rise in spending on clothing and home appliances mark the first structural leap in consumption [3] - The current market shows that service and cultural consumption are growing faster than traditional goods, particularly in economically developed regions like Beijing [3][4] Industry Data - Specific sectors such as gold jewelry, sports entertainment products, and cosmetics are experiencing rapid growth, with retail sales in these categories increasing by 41.0%, 9.9%, and 11.9% respectively [4] - Conversely, the automotive and communication sectors are facing declines, with retail sales for communication equipment down by 22.2% and automotive sales down by 21.1% [4] Consumer Dynamics - Consumer motivation is influenced by two key factors: consumption capacity and consumer confidence, both of which are interrelated and essential for stimulating demand [6] - Improving consumption capacity relies on real income growth and optimizing savings structures, while consumer confidence is tied to expectations about future economic conditions [6] Collaborative Efforts - To boost consumption demand and market vitality, a multi-dimensional approach is necessary, including the integration of cultural, commercial, and tourism sectors [7][9] - The development of innovative consumption scenarios in areas like health, sports, and culture is crucial for activating the market [7][8] Experience Diversification - There is a growing trend for diverse consumer experiences, with different age groups seeking immersive and emotional experiences [8] - Businesses should tailor their offerings to meet the specific preferences of target demographics, particularly focusing on the needs of vulnerable groups [8] Digital Consumption - The cultivation of digital consumption is essential, emphasizing the need for internet platform upgrades and the use of AI to enhance physical retail environments [8] Optimizing Consumption Environment - An open and flexible policy approach is recommended for major consumption areas like housing and automobiles, alongside support for traditional brands to innovate and attract both domestic and international consumers [9]

Group 1 - The current economic situation is more complex than a decade ago, with issues extending from production to consumption, affecting PPI and CPI [3][5][6] - The decline in consumer confidence is linked to deteriorating asset-liability balances due to real estate downturns and corporate profit declines, leading to increased unemployment and suppressed consumption [5][11][12] - The need for reform is recognized, but a straightforward approach to reduce production capacity may not be feasible due to the current macroeconomic conditions [10][11][60] Group 2 - The shift in economic structure has led to a decrease in the demand for labor, with the service sector's share of GDP increasing significantly over the past nine years [12][14] - Demand-side reforms are considered more effective than supply-side reforms, as increasing demand is seen as a better solution than merely cutting production [15][39] - The current economic model shows a structural imbalance between consumption and investment, with a significant portion of economic benefits not reaching the average consumer [37][38] Group 3 - Stimulating consumer confidence is crucial, as current policies like subsidies may only provide temporary relief without addressing underlying issues [41][43] - The distribution of wealth and consumer spending power is highlighted as a key factor in improving consumption levels, with a focus on creating a more balanced distribution mechanism [43][49] - The stock market's potential to improve consumer sentiment is noted, as an increase in stock market participation could enhance the perception of economic stability [64][65]

Core Insights - The Xiaomi YU7 electric SUV has achieved a remarkable milestone by securing over 240,000 orders within 18 hours of its launch, marking a significant event in the automotive industry [1][4][6] - The phenomenon surrounding the YU7 transcends mere product sales, reflecting broader trends in technological innovation, market potential, and consumer confidence in China's economic future [3][10] Group 1: Sales Performance - The YU7 was launched on June 26, and within just 3 minutes, it received 200,000 pre-orders, ultimately surpassing 240,000 orders in 18 hours, setting a new global record in the automotive industry [4][6] - During the first 72 hours post-launch, the average order volume per store across 335 Xiaomi automotive outlets was between 800 to 900 units, with a lock-in rate of 75% to 80% [6][10] Group 2: Consumer Engagement - The YU7 has sparked significant consumer enthusiasm, with reports of some stores experiencing up to 800 test drive appointments in a single day, indicating high demand and interest [6][10] - The average age of customers placing orders for the YU7 is 33 years, with 30% being female and 52.4% being Apple users, showcasing a diverse consumer base [10][12] Group 3: Industry Impact - The success of the YU7 has prompted other electric vehicle manufacturers to offer incentives for customers to switch from competing brands, indicating a competitive response within the industry [7][10] - Tesla has responded to the YU7's launch by upgrading its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in China, suggesting that the YU7's success has influenced market dynamics [7][10] Group 4: Economic Implications - The YU7's sales reflect a broader trend of consumer optimism and willingness to invest in innovative products, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand in China's economy [12][14] - The automotive sector accounts for approximately 10% of Chinese household consumption, making it a vital area for economic growth and development [13][14] Group 5: Innovation and Market Dynamics - Xiaomi's approach with the YU7 emphasizes quality and innovation over low pricing, positioning it as a model for high-quality development in the automotive industry [13][14] - The YU7's pricing strategy, starting at over 250,000 yuan, challenges the traditional dominance of luxury brands in this price segment, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards innovative domestic electric vehicles [12][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the support for employment and income growth for residents, aiming to enhance consumer confidence [1] - Financial services will be strengthened for private and small micro enterprises, as well as individual businesses that have strong employment absorption capabilities [1] - The implementation of entrepreneurial guarantee loan policies will be deepened, encouraging local adaptations to relax application conditions and simplify approval processes for eligible individuals and enterprises [1] Group 2 - Innovative financial products will be developed to meet family wealth management needs, while regulating resident investment and wealth management activities to increase property income [1]