投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 商品大部上涨，股指走势分化 ——中信期货晨报20260303 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | | 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | 沪深300期货 | 4711.2 -0.06% -0.06% -0.06% | | | | 0.00% | 2.42% | 航运 | 集 ...

从2021年以后，我们的经济总好像不那么猛了，对于我们普通人最明显的就是钱难赚了，生意难做了， 导致我们也不敢花钱了，就形成了现在的物价通缩。 物价通缩就说明经济在下行的周期， 体现在大家不仅降级消费了，大家越来越喜欢存钱了，有了钱以 后也不买房子，也不消费。 这就是咱们现在最真实的现状。 经济想真正回暖，绕不开楼市，房价稳不住，消费、投资、内需全都是空谈。 很多人不理解，不就是房子吗？至于影响这么大？ 我告诉你，太至于了。 在中国，房子是绝大多数家庭最大的资产，占了家底的60%以上。 房价一跌，大家的资产就缩水，手里的房子不值钱了，心里就慌，第一反应就是：存钱、不花钱、不敢 换车、不敢旅游、不敢给孩子报班，更不敢随便辞职。 消费起不来，内需拉不动，开店的没生意，开厂的没订单，上班的没信心， 我们是有14亿人口的一个大国，如果每个人每天都消费1块钱，那我们的经济能不好起来吗？现在会有 国补，有各种的补贴政策，但大家还是没有那种消费的欲望，这是为什么呢？ 其实不是大家不想消费，而是大家不敢消费，因为大家的钱太难赚了。因为我们的房价一直没有企稳， 所以大家没有信心。 再往大了说，楼市连着上下游50多个行业，建材、 ...

Economic Data and Events - The US manufacturing and services PMI, as well as consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated [2][14] - In the Eurozone, January manufacturing PMI showed a greater rebound than the initial value, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations; inflation met expectations and remained stable compared to the previous value [2][14] - Japan's manufacturing and services PMI both improved in January [2][14] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key focus on the US non-farm payroll report for January to be released on February 11 and the US CPI data for January to be released on February 13 [3][16] Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US economic activity index remained stable, with the WEI index at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, down from 2.49% the previous week [4][18] - Germany's economic activity index returned to positive territory, with the WAI index at 0.1% for the week ending February 1, compared to -0.01% the previous week [5][18] Demand - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth rate showed fluctuations, with a reading of 6.7% for the week ending January 30, down from 7.1% the previous week [6][21] - The US mortgage rate stabilized, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.11% on February 5, slightly up from 6.10% the previous week; mortgage applications fell, with the MBA market composite index at 330.8, down 8.9% week-on-week [6][24] Employment - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week; continuing claims increased from 1.819 million to 1.844 million for the week ending January 24 [7][27] - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed job vacancy index at 103.9 as of January 30, slightly lower than the December average of 104.2 [8][29] Prices - Commodity prices experienced a significant pullback, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index down 3.3% week-on-week as of February 6 [9][34] - US gasoline prices stabilized at $2.75 per gallon for the week ending February 2, showing no change from the previous week [9][36] Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed signs of recovery, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US at 0.755 on February 6, up from 0.539 the previous day [10][39] - Offshore dollar liquidity remained stable, with narrow fluctuations in swap basis [11][41] - High-yield dollar bond spreads widened but showed signs of recent recovery, with the spread-to-worst for JPMorgan's global BB-B rated dollar bonds at 256.3 basis points [11][43] - The yield spread between US and Japanese bonds narrowed, while the spread between Italian and German bonds widened [11][46] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, cumulative federal funding expenditures in the US increased by 3.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $784.5 billion [12][49][52]

Economic Data and Events - US manufacturing and services PMI, along with consumer confidence, exceeded expectations, while employment data was significantly weaker than anticipated[2] - Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected rebound, but services PMI and retail sales fell short of expectations[2] - Japan's January manufacturing and services PMI both improved[2] Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index stood at 2.13% for the week ending January 31, with a four-week moving average of 2.32%[4] - Germany's WAI index returned to positive territory at 0.1%, with a four-week moving average of 0%[4] Demand Indicators - US Redbook commercial retail year-on-year growth was 6.7%, with a four-week moving average of 6.25%[5] - The 30-year mortgage rate in the US stabilized at 6.11%, with mortgage applications declining by 8.9% week-on-week[5] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, up from 209,000 the previous week[6] - The INDEED job vacancy index was 103.9, slightly down by 0.5% from the previous week[7] Price Trends - The RJ/CRB commodity price index decreased by 3.3% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices remained stable at $2.75 per gallon[8] Financial Conditions - The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was 0.755, recovering from 0.539 the previous day[9] - The Eurozone's Financial Conditions Index increased to 1.714 from 1.533 the previous week[9] Fiscal Data - As of February 5, US federal spending was approximately $784.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8%[10]

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Core Viewpoint - The first "Yueyang Specialty Souvenir" evaluation event was successfully concluded, aiming to boost consumer confidence and market vitality through the selection of high-quality local products [4][8]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the Yueyang Consumer Rights Protection Committee and involved months of preparation, selection, and final evaluation [4]. - The initiative addresses issues in the tourism souvenir market, such as poor quality and excessive packaging, aiming to ensure consumers can purchase reliable and representative local products [5][6]. Group 2: Selection Process - The evaluation process was rigorous, requiring products to have legal certifications and unique "Yueyang genes" [5]. - A combination of online voting and expert reviews was used to ensure both market opinion and professional quality control were respected [5][6]. Group 3: Product Transformation - The event highlighted a transformation of Yueyang's souvenirs from mere local specialties to branded and culturally infused products [7]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance packaging and cultural storytelling, moving from selling products to selling the "Yueyang story" [7]. Group 4: Consumer Confidence and Market Impact - The release of the "Yueyang Specialty Souvenir" list is expected to stimulate the holiday consumption market, acting as a guide for consumers and enhancing their purchasing confidence [8][9]. - The event recognized 30 out of 50 participating products as "Yueyang Specialty Souvenirs," promising to improve the local consumption environment and elevate consumer experience [9].

金立印 复旦管院院长助理、市场营销学系系主任 研究方向：消费行为与营销战略 01 增收入！居民增收计划提升消费能力 "十五五"是中国迈向2035年基本实现社会主义现代化目标的关键五年。作为开局之年的2026，世界依然变乱交织。面对全球经济增长疲软与内需不足等多 重挑战，中国经济如何破局？高质量发展如何取得显著成效？科技自立自强如何实现制度保障？如何扩大内需，建设强大国内市场？ "视界·新年特辑"系列策划，将立足"十五五"规划战略框架，结合学术前沿洞察与产业一线动态，力图从宏观经济、资本市场、消费趋势、产业变迁、组 织进化等维度呈现教授们对2026和未来趋势的展望。变革时代，需要冷静的洞察与笃定的行动。复旦管院始终致力于连接学术智慧与商业实践。我们期待 通过系列文章，与您共同探寻中国经济的韧性、活力与未来路径。 本期，复旦管院院长助理、市场营销学系系主任金立印教授将为我们分析中国消费市场趋势与机遇，探讨当依赖规模扩张、渠道渗透和人口增长的传统逻 辑失效时，如何有效拉动内需，促进消费市场繁荣发展。 消费是促进中国经济增长的重要引擎。2025年12月召开的中央经济工作会议上，为"十五五"开局之年的2026年经济工作 ...

转自：扬子晚报 2月1日，出席江苏省政协十三届四次会议的省政协委员们向大会报到。扬子晚报/紫牛新闻推出视频产 品《听！骉骉江淮》。迈步"十五五"新征程，江苏各界凝心聚力，奋发跃马扬鞭的开拓勇气，激荡万马 奔腾的奋进活力，更坚定马不停蹄的实干干劲。委员们聚焦民营经济、科技创新、消费信心等经济社会 发展热点与民生关切，纷纷建言献策，发出"骉骉江淮"奋进强音。 民营经济是推进中国式现代化的生力军。委员们聚焦营商环境优化，着力破解市场准入、融资支持、产 权保护等关键问题，提出了相关建议，推动民营经济在稳定增长、促进创新、增加就业等方面发挥更大 作用。江苏省政协委员，江苏茂通律师事务所管委会主任刘茂通期待更加稳定公平透明的法治环境，让 民营企业在迈向高质量发展和新质生产力发展的道路上，马不停蹄，再创辉煌。 支持高水平科技自立自强，江苏一直走在前。江苏省政协委员，南京航空航天大学计算机科学与技术学 院院长黄圣君表示，《江苏省人工智能+行动方案》为人工智能的发展奠定了很好的政策基础。"我们 需要进一步的发展人工智能创新的研究，提升算法的能力，这样AI才能更好地赋能千行百业。" 提振消费信心是扩内需、稳增长的重要抓手。委员们 ...

Group 1 - Chengdu has achieved a remarkable consumer performance, with a retail sales growth of 5.5% in 2025, ranking first among sub-provincial cities [1] - Chengdu became a trillion-level consumer city in 2023, and its continued growth is notable amid a complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand [1] - Core cities in central and western China, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, and Chongqing, are experiencing stable consumption growth, outpacing eastern coastal cities, indicating a shift in consumption focus towards the west [1] Group 2 - Chengdu's proactive measures, including the implementation of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," have contributed to its consumer growth by addressing both supply and demand [3] - The city has introduced various policies, such as subsidies for replacing old consumer goods, and has been recognized as a national pilot city for retail innovation and sports consumption [3] - Chengdu's efforts in enhancing consumer confidence are reflected in the creation of 311,000 new urban jobs and a 7% increase in industrial added value, improving the overall business environment [3] Group 3 - Consumer confidence is fundamentally linked to economic growth, industry upgrades, and urban safety, which collectively foster a positive outlook for future consumption [4] - The relationship between consumer spending and business revenue highlights the cyclical nature of the economy, where increased consumer activity boosts corporate confidence and investment [4] - Sustaining consumer confidence is essential for maintaining economic vitality and ensuring individuals can invest in a better quality of life [4]

成都万亿级消费"成绩单"，是市民的你一单我一单，是企业的左一单右一单。消费行为的背后，是信心 在2026年成都市政府工作报告中，城市消费"成绩单"十分亮眼：作为万亿级消费城市，成都2025年社会消费品零售总额增长5.5%，总量居副省级城市第1 位。 成都2023年晋身万亿级消费城市，此次再次升位，这一"成绩单"殊为不易。当前，外部环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升，国内有效需求仍显不足。相 比之下，成都、武汉、重庆等中西部核心城市消费稳中有升，增速高于东部沿海城市，消费重心呈现"西移"之势。 ↑春熙路太古里商圈夜景璀璨 势，只是一种结果，"事"在"势"之先。所谓事在人为，成都做对了什么？ 简而言之，就是主动作为，开花结果。去年，成都亮出以《提振消费专项行动实施方案》为首的系统性政策组合拳，从供需两端综合发力，加快打造国际消 费中心城市，促进全方位提振消费。 立足传统消费，用好用活"两新"政策，兑现消费品以旧换新补贴超870万件，入选首批全国零售业创新提升试点城市；立足融合消费，打造"蓉城囍事"等品 牌，发展"跟着演展赛剧游成都"票根经济，"融"出文商旅体融合效力，入选国家首批促进体育消费和赛事经济试点城市；立 ...