宏观经济深度研究 价值链攀升的中国坐标 ——"经纬之间 纵横其链"中国价值链系列研究之二 在全球价值链深度重构与价值分配格局加速重排的背景下，中国正站在由规模 扩张转向价值跃迁的关键节点上，在纵向分工序列中校准结构坐标 —— 即从承 接加工装配的下游参与者，进阶为掌握中间品供给与关键环节的综合型节点。 这一身份蜕变不仅提升了本国的价值留存，更实质性地驱动了产业体系的整体 升级。面对外部技术约束与价值分配两极化的严峻挑战，价值链攀升已不再是 单纯的发展路径选择，而是支撑高质量发展与保障产业链安全的现实需要。这 一过程不是单向竞高，而是在纵横交织的分工网络中，与本国产业结构禀赋相 互嵌合、动态演进的结构调整。基于全球价值链分解与行业分析可见，中国的 价值链攀升呈现出以中游环节率先突破、并向高端环节渐进延伸的阶段性特 征。未来的关键在于：通过原始创新攻坚核心技术、推动制造业与高附加值服 务业深度融合、以及依托完整产业体系锻造关键供应黏性。由此，中国将持续 把庞大的规模优势转化为稳定、可持续的价值红利，从而在动态博弈的全球价 值链中，构筑起稳固的技术与战略优势。 从宏观视角观察，中国在全球价值链（GVC）中的坐标正稳 ...

经济观察报记者郑晨烨 编者按：2025年，经济观察报以"我们的四分之一世纪"为年终特刊主题，旨在通过数十位时代亲历者的 故事，共绘一幅属于这段岁月的集体记忆图谱。 1997年，在宁波做业务员的陈凯峰，拥有了人生第一部手机。 那时候，手机是纯粹的奢侈品，当时实行的是双向收费，不仅打出去要钱，接听电话也要按分钟扣钱， 而陈凯峰当时一个月的工资还不到3000元，但他每个月报销的话费账单通常在2000元到3000元之间。 那是中国电子通信产业爆发的前夜，在那之前，陈凯峰腰里别着传呼机，手里拿着像砖头一样的移动电 话，在公共场合甚至还需要使用磁卡电话亭。 二十八年后，陈凯峰坐在深圳的办公室里，作为酷赛智能的董事长向记者讲述这段往事。他现在的生 意，是把智能手机卖到全球七十多个国家。 从1997年那个拿着昂贵手机的年轻人，到2025年把超600万台手机卖遍全球的操盘手，陈凯峰完整地经 历了中国手机产业从无到有、从草根到正规、从狂热到冷静的全过程。 21世纪的第一个25年，他做过功能机的特色创新，也在鸟巢开过群星璀璨的品牌发布会，最终在巨头林 立的市场缝隙中，找到了一条看似不显眼但却足够宽阔的生存道路。 跑马灯与三个大喇叭 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：一观大势 核心观点：中国企业正进入大出海时代，并向着全球价值链高端环节进军。全球宽松周期后半程，海外 工业化与基建投资进入上行周期，中国科技制造外需的增长韧性或超预期。 摘要 ▶产业出海是制造业国家经济转型的关键一跃，中国正进入出海加速阶段。中企出海的本质是在全球新 一轮产业链转移的背景下，中国产业占领产业链高附加值环节并走向深度全球化的过程。历史经验看， 出海既是国家的主动战略规划，也是现实增长约束下的合理选择。在国内要素成本上升、外部市场准入 趋严与本币升值压力下，向价值链高端化转型与推动产业出海是高质量发展的必然要求。海外制造业大 国通常在人均GDP约1.5万美元后进入近十年的出海加速期，同时伴随着本币的新一轮升值周期。我们 认为，走向全球的中国企业可以更好立足国内创新等要素比较优势整合全球低成本资源，并一定程度减 少贸易摩擦与改善国际经贸关系。在"既看GDP也看GNI"的增长目标下，中国经济发展模式正从"GDP 目标-投资驱动-扩大出口"向"GNI目标-创新驱动-出海加速"加快转变。 ▶全球产业竞争优势快速提升，中企走向2 ...

刚接触基金时，我最头疼选买点。 怕买在高点被套，又怕错过低点踏空。后来老股民朋友推荐我试基金定投，说它是"新手友好型"投资方式。 今天就把定投的核心知识点讲透：什么是定投、收益怎么算，还有实操中能赚钱的方法技巧，看完直接能上手。 先搞懂：基金定投到底是什么？ 基金定投很简单，核心就是"三固定"：固定时间、固定金额、投资固定基金。 比如每月发薪日投1000元，或者每周四投500元。不用天天盯盘，自动执行就行。 它的核心优势有三个：一是分散风险，避免一次性买在高点；二是积少成多，小钱也能滚成大钱；三是平摊成本，这也是定投能赚钱的关键逻辑，特别适合 长期投资。 核心难点：定投收益怎么算？举个例子就懂 很多人定投完不知道自己赚了多少，其实公式很简单，记好这两组： 1. 核心公式：定投收益 = （赎回时基金净值 - 平均成本）× 持有份额； 2. 辅助公式：平均成本 = 总投入金额 / 总持有份额；定投份额 = 每次定投金额 / 当期基金净值。 光看公式抽象，咱们用具体例子算一遍，一目了然： 假设每月定投1000元，连续投6个月，赎回时净值1.7元。各月买入净值分别是：1元、1.1元、1.2元、1.3元、1.4元、1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a profound transformation from scale expansion to value reconstruction, exemplified by the Sichuan Liquor Group's "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy, which aims to create a more resilient and value-rich industry through a full-chain development model [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Transformation - The "smile curve" theory illustrates that the liquor industry's value is concentrated at both ends, with high value in brand and technology, while the middle segment faces low added value and intense competition [2]. - Current challenges such as rational consumption, high channel inventory, and rising personalized demands are forcing companies to rethink their growth logic, moving from point-to-point competition to chain-to-chain competition [2]. - Sichuan Liquor Group's strategy has proven effective, achieving revenue growth from zero to 38 billion yuan and a 26-fold increase in assets over eight years, validating the feasibility of value chain reconstruction [2]. Group 2: Value Chain Reconstruction Path - Sichuan Liquor Group's full-chain model integrates upstream and downstream operations, enhancing its position and profitability by extending from the low-value production segment to high-value areas [3]. - The company has established a research institute with industry experts to strengthen technology development and quality assurance, transforming traditional low-value production into high-value foundational segments [3][4]. - On the branding and service side, Sichuan Liquor Group has created a brand matrix and introduced flexible customization services, breaking traditional boundaries and expanding into personalized solutions [4]. Group 3: "Five-Ring Drive" Strategy - The "Five-Ring Drive" strategy aims to flatten the "smile curve" into a "value plateau," allowing all segments of the industry chain to achieve value enhancement [5]. - By solidifying its position as the largest raw liquor supplier and establishing quality benchmarks, Sichuan Liquor Group is elevating the traditionally low-value raw liquor segment [5]. - The company is building a multi-layered value realization path in the market, addressing diverse consumer needs and enhancing market adaptability [6]. Group 4: Implications for Capital Returns and Risk Resilience - The full-chain model enhances asset returns and capital efficiency, leveraging over 260 liquor companies and 50,000 cellars to achieve significant production capacity with lower capital investment [7]. - The diversified income sources from raw liquor supply, brand sales, and customized services provide stability during market fluctuations, enhancing revenue robustness [7]. - Sichuan Liquor Group's transition from a raw liquor supplier to a comprehensive solution provider with technology and brand capabilities opens up potential for higher market valuations [7]. Group 5: Key Insights for Traditional Industries - The case of Sichuan Liquor Group illustrates that value chain reconstruction is essential for survival in the face of digital transformation and consumer changes [8]. - Successful industry integration requires deep fusion of technology, standards, and data rather than mere physical aggregation [8]. - Competitive advantage now relies on building an open, collaborative ecosystem rather than isolated segment strengths [8]. - The focus should shift from scale-driven growth to efficiency-driven growth, emphasizing sustainable development through productivity and asset optimization [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical leap for China's industrial system, with Sichuan Liquor Group's model serving as a template for traditional industries to achieve high-quality development through value chain reconstruction [9].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） #螺丝钉小知识 微笑曲线是咋来的，为何会有左侧 下跌，又有右侧上涨呢? 基金是非常适合普通人的投资品种。 什么类型的基金更适合新手？ 基金投资该怎么投？ 长期投资前要做哪些心理建设？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助新手投资者从零开始了解基金投资。 想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复 「 基金入门 」 领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 动力。 我们经常提定投的微笑曲线。 在熊市左侧下跌阶段做好定投，可以降低 成本;等到市场进入右侧上涨,那不需要 回到原来的位置，就可以进入盈利了。 定投微笑曲线 市场进入低位 开始投资 定投 定投 扭亏为盈 定投 不断定投摊低成本 那这个微笑曲线是咋来的,为何会有左侧 urne 银行螺丝钉 下跌,又有右侧上涨? 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 这里估值在一个区间波动，会有上下的极 限。例如沪深300，历史最低市盈率8倍上 下，最高接近50倍,平时在十几倍居多。 盈利增长，则是带动指数长期上涨的核心 但是从投资的角度，反而是业绩低迷的时 候,更容易看到便宜的价格。等它们业绩 ...

Core Insights - The ocean economy is emerging as a new engine for economic growth and a competitive frontier for technology, with a focus on the integration of high-end equipment manufacturing [1][2] - The ocean economy's production value in China is projected to reach 10 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and the marine manufacturing sector contributing 3 trillion yuan [2] - The industry is transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality leap, characterized by a shift towards deep-sea development [2] Industry Development - Continuous policy support is driving the industry's growth, with the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizing the construction of a strong marine nation [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's marine engineering equipment sector leads the world in manufacturing value added, export volume, and new orders [2] Challenges and Strategies - The industry faces challenges such as core technology monopolies, a fragmented industrial structure, and pressures from extreme environments and ecological protection [2] - To overcome these challenges, the industry must adopt an integrated approach focusing on "integration, intelligence, modularization, and low carbon" [2][3] Company Achievements - The company has made significant progress in its core products, particularly in the FLNG sector, where it has delivered China's first fully autonomous FLNG, capturing approximately 30% of the global new FLNG platform market [3] - In the FPSO sector, while the company has addressed basic operational issues, it still needs to enhance brand recognition and competitiveness in the supply chain [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to extend its capabilities along the "smile curve" by enhancing front-end design and basic research, as well as improving back-end brand value and service levels [3] - Emphasizing innovation-driven growth is essential for elevating the overall value chain of the marine high-end equipment manufacturing sector, positioning it as a national asset for building a strong marine nation [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the development of the "future industry" in children's products, particularly focusing on the toy and children's vehicle sectors in Pingxiang and Chenghai, which have become significant players in the market [3][4][53] Group 1: Industry Overview - The "future industry" is characterized by the production of children's toys and vehicles, which are seen as a promising market with substantial growth potential [3][47] - Pingxiang and Chenghai have developed their respective industries through unique local advantages and historical contexts, leading to their current status as hidden champions in the children's products market [4][53] Group 2: Pingxiang's Development - Pingxiang's children's vehicle industry has evolved from a bicycle manufacturing base, with over 8,000 related enterprises and an annual production capacity of 145 million units, capturing 50% of the domestic market and 40% of the international market [43] - The county has successfully transitioned from a small workshop model to a modern industrial scale, with significant government support and strategic initiatives to enhance competitiveness [6][27][29] Group 3: Chenghai's Development - Chenghai has become a hub for toy manufacturing, with over 50,000 enterprises and an annual output value of 587.9 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of China's toy production and 33% of global output [43] - The region has leveraged its historical ties with Hong Kong to establish a robust manufacturing base, focusing on innovation and differentiation in product offerings [10][11][12] Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - Despite a declining birth rate in China, the children's products market continues to expand, driven by a shift towards higher quality and specialized products as new generations of parents seek better options for their children [47][48] - The toy market is projected to grow significantly, with the global toy doll market expected to reach $15.77 billion by 2025, indicating a strong demand for innovative and educational toys [50] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Both Pingxiang and Chenghai are focusing on digital transformation, standardization, and innovation to enhance their competitive edge in the global market [16][19][20] - Pingxiang has initiated various projects to improve product quality and safety standards, while Chenghai is exploring AI integration in toy development to meet evolving consumer demands [39][40][41]

Core Viewpoint - ECM (Extracellular Matrix) is essential for complex life and civilization, as emphasized by Zhao Yan, Chairman of Huaxi Group and Huaxi Bio [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - Huaxi Bio's core brand, Runbaiyan, has named two venues, "Beijing Wukesong" and "Chongqing Yudong," as "Huaxi Bio·Runbaiyan ECM Center," marking a significant branding milestone [5][8]. - This initiative represents a shift from mere brand exposure to a scientific narrative, integrating ECM into urban settings to reflect the concept of "life converging here, civilization being born" [8][9]. - The ECM strategy is a pioneering move that combines research and practical applications, positioning Huaxi Bio as a leader in the anti-aging sector [8][9]. Group 2: Understanding ECM - ECM is a dynamic network composed of components like hyaluronic acid (HA), collagen, and elastin, playing a crucial role in skin development and regeneration [9][10]. - It serves as a mechanical scaffold for skin cells, facilitating growth and providing essential nutrients and support [10]. - ECM also acts as a signaling hub, regulating cell behavior and maintaining normal bodily functions [10][11]. Group 3: Research and Development - ECM has been recognized as a key factor in aging, with recent studies highlighting its role in cellular communication and regeneration [13][14]. - Huaxi Bio has been at the forefront of ECM research, focusing on the potential of HA in anti-aging applications [20][21]. - The company has developed various molecular weights of HA, establishing a solid foundation for ECM regulation [21][23]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The dual venue naming strategy enhances Huaxi Bio's brand visibility and positions Runbaiyan as a pioneer in the anti-aging market [18][39]. - This approach aligns with the "smiling curve" theory, indicating a transition from technological leadership to brand value enhancement [30][32]. - The initiative aims to educate the market about ECM, improving brand perception and establishing Runbaiyan as a scientific leader in the beauty industry [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining composure and a long-term perspective during market downturns, suggesting that such periods can present opportunities to acquire quality assets at discounted prices [6][9][14]. Market Analysis - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including tightening overseas liquidity, geopolitical uncertainties, and technical adjustments in overperforming sectors [8]. - Historical data shows that since 2005, mixed equity funds have experienced significant drawdowns, yet holding these funds for three years yields an 85% probability of positive returns, and over five years, this probability increases to over 95% [7]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to reassess their fund portfolios during market declines, ensuring that the investment strategies of fund managers remain consistent and aligned with their risk preferences [10]. - The article advocates for a disciplined approach to investing, suggesting that market downturns can be ideal times for dollar-cost averaging, thereby reducing overall investment costs [11]. Learning and Growth - Market volatility serves as a valuable educational experience, highlighting the importance of asset allocation and the understanding that no asset appreciates indefinitely [12]. - The article encourages investors to trust in professional management and the power of time, asserting that those who remain calm and adhere to sound investment principles will be rewarded in the long run [15][16].