文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） #螺丝钉小知识 微笑曲线是咋来的，为何会有左侧 下跌，又有右侧上涨呢? 基金是非常适合普通人的投资品种。 什么类型的基金更适合新手？ 基金投资该怎么投？ 长期投资前要做哪些心理建设？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助新手投资者从零开始了解基金投资。 想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复 「 基金入门 」 领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 动力。 我们经常提定投的微笑曲线。 在熊市左侧下跌阶段做好定投，可以降低 成本;等到市场进入右侧上涨,那不需要 回到原来的位置，就可以进入盈利了。 定投微笑曲线 市场进入低位 开始投资 定投 定投 扭亏为盈 定投 不断定投摊低成本 那这个微笑曲线是咋来的,为何会有左侧 urne 银行螺丝钉 下跌,又有右侧上涨? 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 这里估值在一个区间波动，会有上下的极 限。例如沪深300，历史最低市盈率8倍上 下，最高接近50倍,平时在十几倍居多。 盈利增长，则是带动指数长期上涨的核心 但是从投资的角度，反而是业绩低迷的时 候,更容易看到便宜的价格。等它们业绩 ...

Core Insights - The ocean economy is emerging as a new engine for economic growth and a competitive frontier for technology, with a focus on the integration of high-end equipment manufacturing [1][2] - The ocean economy's production value in China is projected to reach 10 trillion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, and the marine manufacturing sector contributing 3 trillion yuan [2] - The industry is transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality leap, characterized by a shift towards deep-sea development [2] Industry Development - Continuous policy support is driving the industry's growth, with the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizing the construction of a strong marine nation [2] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's marine engineering equipment sector leads the world in manufacturing value added, export volume, and new orders [2] Challenges and Strategies - The industry faces challenges such as core technology monopolies, a fragmented industrial structure, and pressures from extreme environments and ecological protection [2] - To overcome these challenges, the industry must adopt an integrated approach focusing on "integration, intelligence, modularization, and low carbon" [2][3] Company Achievements - The company has made significant progress in its core products, particularly in the FLNG sector, where it has delivered China's first fully autonomous FLNG, capturing approximately 30% of the global new FLNG platform market [3] - In the FPSO sector, while the company has addressed basic operational issues, it still needs to enhance brand recognition and competitiveness in the supply chain [3] Future Outlook - The company aims to extend its capabilities along the "smile curve" by enhancing front-end design and basic research, as well as improving back-end brand value and service levels [3] - Emphasizing innovation-driven growth is essential for elevating the overall value chain of the marine high-end equipment manufacturing sector, positioning it as a national asset for building a strong marine nation [3]

Core Points - The article discusses the development of the "future industry" in children's products, particularly focusing on the toy and children's vehicle sectors in Pingxiang and Chenghai, which have become significant players in the market [3][4][53] Group 1: Industry Overview - The "future industry" is characterized by the production of children's toys and vehicles, which are seen as a promising market with substantial growth potential [3][47] - Pingxiang and Chenghai have developed their respective industries through unique local advantages and historical contexts, leading to their current status as hidden champions in the children's products market [4][53] Group 2: Pingxiang's Development - Pingxiang's children's vehicle industry has evolved from a bicycle manufacturing base, with over 8,000 related enterprises and an annual production capacity of 145 million units, capturing 50% of the domestic market and 40% of the international market [43] - The county has successfully transitioned from a small workshop model to a modern industrial scale, with significant government support and strategic initiatives to enhance competitiveness [6][27][29] Group 3: Chenghai's Development - Chenghai has become a hub for toy manufacturing, with over 50,000 enterprises and an annual output value of 587.9 billion yuan, accounting for 50% of China's toy production and 33% of global output [43] - The region has leveraged its historical ties with Hong Kong to establish a robust manufacturing base, focusing on innovation and differentiation in product offerings [10][11][12] Group 4: Market Trends and Opportunities - Despite a declining birth rate in China, the children's products market continues to expand, driven by a shift towards higher quality and specialized products as new generations of parents seek better options for their children [47][48] - The toy market is projected to grow significantly, with the global toy doll market expected to reach $15.77 billion by 2025, indicating a strong demand for innovative and educational toys [50] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Both Pingxiang and Chenghai are focusing on digital transformation, standardization, and innovation to enhance their competitive edge in the global market [16][19][20] - Pingxiang has initiated various projects to improve product quality and safety standards, while Chenghai is exploring AI integration in toy development to meet evolving consumer demands [39][40][41]

Core Viewpoint - ECM (Extracellular Matrix) is essential for complex life and civilization, as emphasized by Zhao Yan, Chairman of Huaxi Group and Huaxi Bio [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - Huaxi Bio's core brand, Runbaiyan, has named two venues, "Beijing Wukesong" and "Chongqing Yudong," as "Huaxi Bio·Runbaiyan ECM Center," marking a significant branding milestone [5][8]. - This initiative represents a shift from mere brand exposure to a scientific narrative, integrating ECM into urban settings to reflect the concept of "life converging here, civilization being born" [8][9]. - The ECM strategy is a pioneering move that combines research and practical applications, positioning Huaxi Bio as a leader in the anti-aging sector [8][9]. Group 2: Understanding ECM - ECM is a dynamic network composed of components like hyaluronic acid (HA), collagen, and elastin, playing a crucial role in skin development and regeneration [9][10]. - It serves as a mechanical scaffold for skin cells, facilitating growth and providing essential nutrients and support [10]. - ECM also acts as a signaling hub, regulating cell behavior and maintaining normal bodily functions [10][11]. Group 3: Research and Development - ECM has been recognized as a key factor in aging, with recent studies highlighting its role in cellular communication and regeneration [13][14]. - Huaxi Bio has been at the forefront of ECM research, focusing on the potential of HA in anti-aging applications [20][21]. - The company has developed various molecular weights of HA, establishing a solid foundation for ECM regulation [21][23]. Group 4: Market Positioning - The dual venue naming strategy enhances Huaxi Bio's brand visibility and positions Runbaiyan as a pioneer in the anti-aging market [18][39]. - This approach aligns with the "smiling curve" theory, indicating a transition from technological leadership to brand value enhancement [30][32]. - The initiative aims to educate the market about ECM, improving brand perception and establishing Runbaiyan as a scientific leader in the beauty industry [39][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining composure and a long-term perspective during market downturns, suggesting that such periods can present opportunities to acquire quality assets at discounted prices [6][9][14]. Market Analysis - Recent market fluctuations are attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including tightening overseas liquidity, geopolitical uncertainties, and technical adjustments in overperforming sectors [8]. - Historical data shows that since 2005, mixed equity funds have experienced significant drawdowns, yet holding these funds for three years yields an 85% probability of positive returns, and over five years, this probability increases to over 95% [7]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to reassess their fund portfolios during market declines, ensuring that the investment strategies of fund managers remain consistent and aligned with their risk preferences [10]. - The article advocates for a disciplined approach to investing, suggesting that market downturns can be ideal times for dollar-cost averaging, thereby reducing overall investment costs [11]. Learning and Growth - Market volatility serves as a valuable educational experience, highlighting the importance of asset allocation and the understanding that no asset appreciates indefinitely [12]. - The article encourages investors to trust in professional management and the power of time, asserting that those who remain calm and adhere to sound investment principles will be rewarded in the long run [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of regular investment (定投) as a stable financial tool for ordinary workers, highlighting its potential to accumulate wealth over time through disciplined investment practices [1][2][3]. Group 1: Investment Education and Public Awareness - The Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau and the Beijing Securities Association have initiated a series of activities aimed at promoting high-quality development in public funds, with a focus on educating the public about fund investment [1]. - 中邮基金 is actively involved in investor education, aiming to enhance financial literacy and promote the concept of "new era, new funds, new value" [1][5]. - The initiative seeks to make fund investment accessible to more working-class families, thereby integrating it into their financial planning [1]. Group 2: Benefits of Regular Investment - Regular investment allows individuals to invest small amounts consistently, leveraging the principle of compounding to create significant wealth over time [2][3]. - For instance, a monthly investment of 2000 yuan at an annual return of 5% could accumulate to approximately 800,000 yuan over 20 years, demonstrating the power of disciplined investing [2]. - The strategy of regular investment helps to average out costs and mitigate risks associated with market volatility, making it suitable for ordinary investors [3][5]. Group 3: Psychological and Behavioral Aspects - Many investors tend to stop regular investments during market downturns due to fear, which can lead to missed opportunities for accumulating shares at lower prices [4][5]. - Understanding the principles of regular investment is crucial for maintaining investment discipline and achieving long-term financial goals [5][6]. Group 4: Accessibility and Inclusivity - The development of regular investment reflects the public fund industry's commitment to inclusive finance, allowing ordinary families to participate in capital markets with lower investment thresholds [5][6]. - Many fund products now have a minimum investment requirement as low as 100 yuan, significantly lowering the barrier for young individuals to start their financial planning [5]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Cultural Development - 中邮基金 plans to continue its efforts in investor education, focusing on promoting long-term investment concepts and healthy investment culture through collaborations with communities, enterprises, and schools [6][7]. - The goal is to help more individuals understand the value of long-term investment and achieve stable wealth growth in an uncertain economic environment [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights how Qichun County transformed its economy from poverty to prosperity through the cultivation and commercialization of Qichun Mugwort, a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, achieving a GDP of 36.156 billion yuan and an industry output value of 16.3 billion yuan in 2024 [6][36]. Group 1: Economic Transformation - Before 2019, Qichun was a national poverty-stricken county for 16 years, with weak infrastructure and a lack of industry [6][51]. - The introduction of Qichun Mugwort cultivation has led to significant economic growth, with the planting area exceeding 200,000 acres and an average yield of 400 kg per acre, doubling since 2015 [11][6]. - The Qichun Mugwort industry has evolved from a non-standardized agricultural economy to a modernized industry with over 4,000 market entities and seven companies with over 100 million yuan in output value [36][47]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Expansion - Qichun's enterprises, such as Ai Ai Tie, have innovated various products, including moxibustion devices and essential oils, significantly increasing the commercial value of Qichun Mugwort [30][32]. - The company Ai Ai Tie reached a production peak of 2 million moxibustion devices per day, showcasing the scale of production [29]. - The development of high-value products is driven by research into effective components of Mugwort, enhancing its market appeal [33][57]. Group 3: Brand and Service Development - The brand value of Qichun Mugwort has grown from 3.562 billion yuan in 2015 to 14.258 billion yuan in 2025, positioning it as a leading brand in traditional Chinese medicine [42]. - Qichun has trained 83,000 certified moxibustion practitioners, creating a labor brand valued at 32.691 billion yuan, which promotes both employment and product consumption [44]. - The integration of cultural tourism with health services has attracted 5.2 million tourists in 2024, generating a revenue of 3.49 billion yuan [44]. Group 4: Socioeconomic Impact - The economic growth has led to a significant increase in disposable income, with urban residents' income rising by approximately 22% and rural residents by about 34% from 2019 to 2023 [50]. - The Qichun Mugwort industry has created job opportunities for nearly 30% of the county's population, directly linking economic growth to community welfare [49][48]. - The shift in the industrial structure from primary to tertiary sectors indicates a move towards service-oriented economic growth, with the tertiary sector's share increasing from 40.71% in 2017 to 51.20% in 2023 [47].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in investment outcomes among investors who employed a systematic investment strategy in index funds, with over 60% of investors in the CSI 300 index experiencing losses, averaging an 8.7% decline, while a different group achieved a 12% annualized return [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy Errors - Investors commonly made two critical mistakes: selecting the wrong assets and mismanaging investment timing [1][3]. - Many investors fell into the "chasing hot spots" trap, investing in high-volatility sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, which led to substantial losses [3][4]. - For instance, a renewable energy index fund saw its net value drop from 2.5 yuan in September 2022 to 1.8 yuan in August 2025, resulting in an 11% loss for consistent investors [3][4]. Group 2: Comparison of Investment Outcomes - Broad-based index funds, such as the CSI 300, emerged as the "winners" in systematic investment strategies, yielding a 5.2% annualized return despite market downturns [4][10]. - In contrast, thematic funds averaged a -3.8% return during the same period, underscoring the importance of asset selection [4][10]. Group 3: Valuation Considerations - A common error among investors was neglecting valuation, leading to blind investments without considering price rationality [6][7]. - The CSI 300 index experienced significant valuation fluctuations, with its price-to-earnings ratio ranging from 12 to 15 during the investment period, affecting returns based on timing of investments [6][7]. - An investor who adjusted their investment based on valuation metrics achieved a 14% profit, while another who did not lost 5% [6][10]. Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance investment outcomes, investors should prioritize selecting "evergreen" assets and avoid sectors with high cyclicality or rapid technological changes [4][12]. - Implementing a dynamic investment strategy based on valuation metrics can significantly reduce average costs and improve returns [7][10]. - Investors are advised to regularly assess their investment choices and adjust their strategies according to market conditions and asset valuations [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes Beike's proactive approach to building a trust infrastructure during a challenging period in the real estate market, focusing on the launch of the "True Guarantee" service system to enhance transaction security and consumer confidence [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Context - The Chinese real estate market has entered an adjustment phase over the past four years, with transaction volumes shrinking by nearly 10 trillion yuan, while the number of industry professionals remains stable at around 1.8 million [3]. - Current practitioners face increased anxiety and competition, as the market has not previously experienced a true cycle, leading to a lack of respect for market dynamics [3]. True Guarantee System - Beike has upgraded its service from "True Source" to "True Guarantee," addressing transaction uncertainties and providing comprehensive service guarantees throughout the real estate transaction process [4][5]. - The "True Guarantee" system includes a set of standards, technical capabilities, and a 100 million yuan risk fund to ensure transaction safety [5][7]. Service Commitments - The system encompasses 35 service commitments, with key promises including "True Source, false claims compensated by 100 yuan," "No reason for commission refund if the transaction fails," and "Advance payment for property arrears" [8]. - These commitments aim to cover major risk points in second-hand property transactions, significantly reducing uncertainty costs for buyers [8]. Risk Management and Technology - Beike has invested substantial resources to enhance its transaction systems, involving over 300 engineers to redesign processes covering 12 transaction steps and 80 potential risk points [9]. - The platform has successfully blocked 16,000 risky transactions from July 2024 to July 2025, with actual loss incidents being only 96, maintaining a loss probability of 0.006% [11]. Market Performance - In the first half of the year, Beike's platform saw a 26% year-on-year increase in second-hand property transactions, outperforming the market [12]. - The company's commitment to consumer protection and transaction security has positioned it favorably against smaller competitors struggling during the market downturn [12][13]. Strategic Philosophy - Beike's founder, Zuo Hui, believes in making difficult yet correct decisions, which has historically led to long-term benefits despite short-term challenges [4][15]. - The company aims to build a trust-based ecosystem that not only benefits consumers but also protects agents and brands on its platform [14][21]. Historical Context - Beike's evolution from Lianjia reflects a consistent strategy of prioritizing transparency and consumer trust, even at the cost of short-term revenue [17][18]. - The establishment of Beike as a platform for multiple brands has created a robust network effect, enhancing its market position [18]. Trust Infrastructure - The "True Guarantee" initiative is likened to the Kula Ring, emphasizing the importance of long-term trust relationships in uncertain environments [19][20]. - By investing in trust infrastructure, Beike aims to strengthen its competitive edge and facilitate the transition from a transaction platform to a comprehensive living service provider [20][21].

Group 1 - The core point of the articles highlights the significant market performance difference between Ningde Times and Kweichow Moutai, with Ningde Times' market value surpassing Kweichow Moutai for the first time, reaching 1.80 trillion yuan [1][3] - Year-to-date, Ningde Times has seen a price increase of 48.83%, while Kweichow Moutai has experienced a decline of 3.82% [1][2] - Over the past 60 days, Ningde Times' stock has risen by 47.10%, contrasting with Kweichow Moutai's modest increase of 1.55% [1][2] Group 2 - The rise in Ningde Times' market value reflects its successful extension of China's manufacturing influence along the "smile curve," enhancing its pricing power and industry chain integration capabilities [3] - Kweichow Moutai remains a significant representative of Chinese consumer brands, maintaining its own growth potential despite the competitive landscape [3]