以下文章来源于智商税研究中心 ，作者潘哥 智商税研究中心 . 尘世套路深，我替你踩坑。 无处藏身的员工， 无所不在的监控。 文 ｜ 潘哥 来源｜ 智商税研究中心（ID：gh_c55b3561ece1） 封面来源 ｜ 瑞幸咖啡官网 瑞幸重回美股上市，第一件事是什么？也许是安装监控。 最近，越来越多的瑞幸门店，开始安装AI摄像头，员工还没说什么，消费者先坐不住了。 对于瑞幸的这一举动，有人担心隐私被泄露，有人担心非标品消失；同时，还有消费者举双手赞成，认为这是卫生方面的进步。 另一边，对于瑞幸打工人来说，AI监控在卫生检查、工作流程、人员管理等方面，相比之前有了明显提升，无所遁形的门店员工，被注视得浑身难受。 瑞幸全面上线AI监控，除了保障自身卫生等原因外，似乎还有着降本增效的考虑。毕竟，库迪、幸运咖等对手，依靠更低的价格、更快的扩张速度，正逐 步蚕食瑞幸的市场份额。 曾经靠极致性价比、极致开店速度，对星巴克进行赶超的瑞幸，正在被自己的中国学徒追赶。 而在这一过程中，瑞幸的应对策略不仅收效甚微，反而让一些员工站在了对立面，最近的烤箱事件、克扣工时事件，似乎都说明瑞幸打工人，日子过得有 一点苦。 也许，品牌在进行降 ...

Core Viewpoint - Luckin Coffee has established a systematic capability for generating hit products, achieving over 50% year-on-year revenue growth and a monthly active user base exceeding 110 million, with nearly 30,000 stores [5][6][12]. Product Structure - In 2023, Luckin Coffee launched 102 new products, with 8 of them achieving sales exceeding 100 million cups. The company plans to introduce 114 new products in 2024 and 119-140 in 2025, indicating a consistent high frequency of new product launches [6][12]. - The product development process is based on a modular system, allowing for efficient combination and testing of various components, which increases the likelihood of creating successful products [11][17]. Supply Chain - Luckin's supply chain is highly standardized, allowing for low-cost experimentation with new products. This structure enables the company to absorb failures without significant financial impact, contrasting with traditional brands that face high costs for product failures [15][18]. - The centralized production of key flavors and liquid structures reduces the complexity at the store level, streamlining the product launch process [15][18]. Organizational Structure - The organizational structure of Luckin Coffee is flat and project-based, facilitating parallel collaboration across departments. This contrasts with traditional beverage brands that have hierarchical structures, which slow down the product development process [12][13]. - Decision-making is driven by data rather than individual judgment, allowing for rapid adjustments based on real-time sales feedback [13][21]. Data System - Luckin Coffee employs a data-driven approach to identify consumer preferences and trends, using metrics such as repurchase rates and customer feedback to guide product development [10][21]. - The company views new products as experiments rather than expressions of brand identity, focusing on market validation rather than brand storytelling [19][22]. Trend Identification - Trends are defined by quantifiable variables that can be monitored in real-time, allowing Luckin to adapt quickly to changing consumer preferences [21][22]. - The company’s approach to product development is iterative, relying on continuous testing and feedback to refine offerings and align with consumer demand [22][24].

Core Insights - The current state of the ready-to-drink tea industry shows significant revenue growth among major players, with Mixue Group leading the market with a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [3][6] - The competitive landscape is intensifying due to aggressive subsidy wars initiated by delivery platforms, impacting various brands differently [7][9] - The overall performance of the industry is mixed, with some brands like Nayuki experiencing a decline in revenue, while others like Mixue and Gu Ming continue to grow [4][6] Revenue and Growth - Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, up 39.3%, with a net profit of 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 44.1% increase [6] - Gu Ming achieved a revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, a 41.2% increase, with a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, up 119.8% [6] - Bawang Tea Ji generated 6.725 billion yuan in revenue, a 21.61% increase, with a net profit of 1.307 billion yuan, up 6.8% [6] Market Dynamics - The industry is witnessing a surge in store openings, with the top five brands adding nearly 9,000 new stores in the first half of the year [3] - Nayuki is the only major brand to report a revenue decline, with a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan, down 14.4% [4][6] - The competitive environment is characterized by a price war, with some brands opting out of aggressive discounting strategies [7][10] Strategic Responses - Brands are diversifying their offerings, with many entering the ready-to-drink coffee market as a new growth avenue [16][18] - Mixue's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, aims to expand to over 10,000 stores, with significant investments in the coffee supply chain [16] - Gu Ming has equipped over 8,000 stores with coffee machines to enhance its coffee product offerings [17] International Expansion - The overseas expansion of brands is accelerating, with Bawang Tea Ji opening 39 new stores abroad in the second quarter [19] - The Southeast Asian market is becoming crowded, prompting brands like Mixue to optimize existing stores [20] - North America is emerging as a new battleground for Chinese tea brands, with Bawang Tea Ji and others making significant inroads [21]

Core Viewpoint - The current fresh coffee market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a significant increase in consumer demand for fresh and professional coffee beverages. Companies like Guming are leveraging their strengths in the tea beverage sector to expand into the fresh coffee market, focusing on fresh ingredients and affordability as key competitive advantages [1][9]. Market Dynamics - The fresh coffee market is witnessing explosive growth in third and fourth-tier cities, with order volumes increasing by over 250%. This has led to intense price competition among brands, including international giants like Starbucks and local brands like Luckin and Kudi, all vying for the attention of young consumers in these areas [2][4]. - Guming has successfully differentiated itself by balancing quality and price, capturing the interest of young consumers in county towns. As of June 2025, Guming's fresh coffee products are available in over 7,600 stores nationwide, ranking among the top five in the country [2][4]. Product Strategy - Guming's coffee products are priced between 8.9 to 18 yuan, significantly lower than similar offerings from Starbucks, which can be three times more expensive. The company emphasizes high-quality ingredients, such as fresh milk and award-winning coffee beans, to ensure a superior taste experience [8][10]. - The company has achieved a high repurchase rate of 53% in lower-tier markets, well above the industry average of 30%, indicating strong consumer loyalty [8][9]. Supply Chain Efficiency - Guming has established a robust supply chain that allows for fresh ingredients to be delivered quickly, with a focus on maintaining the freshness of coffee beans within 30 days from roasting to store use. This is a significant improvement over the industry standard [9][11]. - The company operates 22 warehouses, including a large cold storage facility, and has a logistics network that enables efficient distribution, reducing delivery costs to 50% of the industry average [11][13]. Competitive Positioning - Guming's strategy includes targeting the "mid-price range" of 10 to 17 yuan, avoiding direct competition with lower-priced brands and high-end offerings. This positioning allows Guming to appeal to consumers seeking quality at a reasonable price [15][16]. - The company has also focused on product innovation, launching new coffee products frequently and adapting to regional preferences based on consumer data, which has helped convert tea drinkers into coffee customers [18][19]. Future Outlook - Guming aims to increase its coffee product sales to 10% of total sales by 2025, with expectations of significant revenue growth from its presence in lower-tier markets [14][15].