中金研究 中国出海电商在性价比和运营效率上处于领先地位，在25年的外部压力测试中表现出较强韧性，看好中国出海电商平台未来在海外市场获得份额，以 及各平台的运营效率持续优化。 Abstract 外部扰动下，出海电商平台保持韧性。 25年以来，关税和小包免税政策的调整成为影响出海电商的主要矛盾，全球范围内对出海电商的监管趋严。在此 逆风下，我们测算25年出海电商GMV同增12%，其中四大中国出海电商平台GMV同增25%，中长期看，是否具备全球化能力，或成为电商平台发展的重 要分水岭。 本地化和分散化有效应对政策风险。 我们观察到主要出海平台在分散经营区域、增加海外仓履约方式、改进运营策略和推进半托管模式上均有系列动 作，展现出更强的经营韧性和抗风险能力。我们认为出海电商所面临的经营环境和海外政策扰动会持续，但当平台在具备了更强的本地化能力和分散化布 局后，有望降低极端情况对平台经营的影响，从而实现收入和利润稳健增长。 小包免税政策面临全球范围内的转向。 全球主要国家大都有一定价值量以下的小包裹豁免关税的海关政策，而出海电商也得以享受这一政策红利，以小 包直发的方式进入全球各国以豁免或降低关税或增值税。但随着中国出 ...

Group 1: Media Industry Analysis - The domestic short drama industry has matured, transitioning from chaotic growth to standardized development, with a shift in profit models from IAP to IAA, and a move from mini-programs to independent apps targeting overseas markets [3] - The market size for short dramas is projected to reach 50.4 billion yuan by 2024, surpassing box office revenues for the first time, with a user base of 666 million and an increasing share of the IAA model [3] - The short drama industry has a short payback period and encompasses content production, distribution, and consumption, with significant growth in anime short dramas primarily targeting Generation Z [3] Group 2: Emerging Markets for Chinese Enterprises - Chinese companies are accelerating their expansion into emerging markets such as Africa, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America amid ongoing US-China tariff disputes [4] - Brand globalization is becoming a core focus, with trends indicating a shift towards younger global markets and a positive image of Chinese technology [4] - The characteristics of five major regional markets vary, with Africa emerging as a new blue ocean requiring localization strategies [4] Group 3: Gaming Industry Insights - The Chinese gaming industry is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion, supported by various local policies, with 25 evergreen games generating approximately 11.6 billion yuan in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025 [5] - Notable games like PUBG MOBILE and Genshin Impact have monthly revenues exceeding 100 million yuan, while potential games like Whiteout Survival are showing strong performance [5] - Future trends in gaming exports may include mixed casual games, female-oriented titles, and the integration of AI technology [5] Group 4: AI Industry and Brazil - The relationship between China and Brazil has deepened since 1974, with China being Brazil's largest trading partner, focusing on agricultural products, minerals, and machinery [6] - Chinese enterprises are actively investing in Brazil's infrastructure, agriculture, and energy sectors, with a report highlighting opportunities and challenges in the Brazilian market [6] - The 2025 BRICS summit will focus on AI governance, with Chinese AI companies like DeepSeek driving global collaboration [6] Group 5: Chinese Milk Tea Brands Going Global - Chinese milk tea brands are making significant inroads into overseas markets, becoming a cross-cultural "social currency" [7][8] - Brands like Tea Yan Yue Se are utilizing e-commerce to enter the North American market, avoiding traditional brick-and-mortar strategies [8] - The global ready-to-drink tea market holds substantial potential, with e-commerce providing a low-cost, rapid feedback mechanism for brands [8] Group 6: Automotive Industry Expansion - In the first half of the year, China exported 3.083 million vehicles, with 1.06 million being new energy vehicles, marking a 75.2% increase [9] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts total exports could exceed 7 million vehicles for the year, with a shift towards technology output [9] - The industry is calling for "high-quality exports" to avoid chaotic competition, particularly in the European market [9] Group 7: Brand Expansion Strategies - Wangzai Milk has successfully expanded overseas, with a unique English name "HOT-KID," generating nearly 1.2 billion yuan in overseas revenue in the 2023 fiscal year [16] - The brand's strategy focuses on retaining unique characteristics while adapting to local markets, achieving significant brand recognition [16] - The recent popularity of "HOT-KID" has generated buzz in domestic marketing, showcasing the brand's innovative vitality [16] Group 8: E-commerce and Supply Chain Strategies - Dingdong Maicai is prioritizing overseas expansion, starting with Saudi Arabia and collaborating with local retailers to enhance supply chain capabilities [21] - The company aims to leverage China's rapid development in agriculture and supply chain to address market gaps in overseas regions [21] - Dingdong's approach emphasizes collaboration and technology support rather than direct consumer sales, differentiating its strategy from domestic operations [21]