（原标题：人民大学论坛：推动"一带一路"高质量发展是"统筹两个大局"的重要抓手） 中国人民大学经济学院副院长于泽将"两个大局"视角转向国内经济。他提出，当前中国经济面临的"内 卷式竞争"，其核心是供需错配，即生产强而需求弱；在需求端存在着内需不足、外需"以价换量"、房 地产后周期疲软等问题，而在供给端则呈现行业集中度提升、技术扩散加快、"资产荒"等问题。破解这 一困境需要依托国内国际双循环，关键在于统筹有效市场和有为政府，于泽建议，当前需要从"增量逻 辑"转向"存量优化"，完善城市更新等存量调整工具，在市场层面梳理激励机制，解决治理体系中"激励 不兼容"问题，实现国内外资源高效联动。 中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院院长孙浦阳指出，统筹发展与安全需重点把握三大政策目标： 一是推进人民币国际化，当前人民币已成为第四大支付货币，有利于中国提升全球资产定价话语权、削 弱美元周期影响；二是维持国际收支平衡，既要保持货物贸易顺差合理区间，也要关注服务贸易逆差， 尤其是强化知识产权、金融等高端服务贸易；三是守住外债安全底线，尽管当前中国外债风险可控，但 需加强重点企业、行业外债监控，扩大本币外债占比；世界经济"东升西 ...

文 / 覃朗 2023年，印度尼西亚政府出台新规限制TikTok Shop的运营，相关政策在本地电商领域引起关注，也使外界将目光投向东南亚社交电商的监管动向。所谓社 交电商，指的是社交媒体的电商业务形态，如今社交媒体企业开拓电商业务已然成为潮流。 2024年初，TikTok以部分控股方式入股印尼本土电商平台Tokopedia，此举在印尼政府新规政策背景下，促成了双方业务整合，成为区域电商格局演变中的 最新举措。 从市场博弈到资本合并 目前，印尼的TikTok Shop正式融入Tokopedia平台，并延续 Tokopedia 品牌进行运营。TikTok的流量与直播技术成为Tokopedia的新业务引擎，商家获得新的 推广入口。初步数据显示，流量导入后的Tokopedia用户转化率上升15%—20%，平台每日GMV显著提升。GMV指的是在一定时间内，通过一个电商平台完 成的所有交易商品的总金额，不扣除退款、取款、优惠等。 直播与短视频带动用户从内容消费快速转化为购物行为，为Tokopedia注入"新鲜血液"。平台还在商业主页和商品详情页加设"TikTok内容板块"，引导用户跳 转观看直播，体验内容式购物。 Ti ...

Core Insights - Chinese companies are at a critical juncture for overseas expansion, transitioning from "Made in China" to "Created in China" and now to "Belief in China" [2][5][7] Group 1: Conference Overview - The 2025 Outbound Conference held in Zhejiang focused on themes of "certainty in uncertainty" and "doing business globally," covering sectors like consumption, technology, e-commerce, finance, and new energy [2][3] - The conference aimed to provide insights on outbound trends, regional policies, brand strategies, cultural understanding, and innovative models to assist Chinese companies in their global journey [2][3] Group 2: Key Trends and Strategies - Successful outbound companies share three common traits: clear strategic planning, deep market insights, and sustained strategic determination [7] - The key to Chinese companies' overseas success lies in product technology's irreplaceability, deep localization capabilities, and a long-term strategic mindset [7] Group 3: Regional Insights - Dubai is a preferred choice for Chinese companies entering the Middle East due to stable Sino-Arab relations, clear government economic strategies, and a favorable business environment [11] - Abu Dhabi has transformed its economy, with non-oil sectors now exceeding oil's contribution to GDP, making it an attractive destination for Chinese investments [56] Group 4: Challenges and Solutions - The food and beverage sector faces challenges such as precise user research, distinct cultural symbols, and stringent compliance requirements when expanding overseas [12] - Companies must build a strong employer brand to attract local talent, focusing on aspects like leadership background, salary, and promotion opportunities [20] Group 5: Compliance and Risk Management - Compliance categories for outbound enterprises are diverse, including data compliance and export control, necessitating tailored team structures based on specific needs [24] - Companies should engage Chinese law firms for legal risk analysis and compliance cost savings when venturing abroad [24] Group 6: Market Adaptation and Innovation - Chinese sellers have shown resilience in adapting to changing environments, with significant sales growth in European markets despite external uncertainties [25] - The new globalization era emphasizes collaborative and sustainable business practices, requiring companies to enhance tactical capabilities and establish cooperative systems [27] Group 7: Cultural and Brand Considerations - Cultural understanding is crucial for successful overseas branding, as local consumers may not resonate with products that were popular in China [55] - AI serves as an accelerator for cultural outreach but cannot replace the human understanding of cultural nuances [51]

Core Insights - The article highlights Toyota's successful recovery in the Chinese automotive market amidst challenges faced by joint venture brands, with a notable sales increase of 6.8% in the first half of the year [1][3]. Sales Performance - Toyota's total sales in China, including Lexus, reached 837,700 units in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year growth of 6.8% [1]. - GAC Toyota sold 364,200 units, showing a slight increase, while FAW Toyota's sales reached 377,800 units, up 16% year-on-year [3]. - Lexus achieved sales of over 85,000 units, becoming the only imported luxury car brand with positive growth [3]. Strategic Changes - Toyota has implemented significant management changes in China, appointing local executives to key positions, which is a first for the company [5]. - The establishment of the "Toyota Intelligent Electric Vehicle R&D Center" in Changshu reflects Toyota's commitment to localizing its R&D efforts [5]. - The introduction of the "China Chief Engineer (RCE) system" aims to enhance product development tailored to local consumer needs [5]. Product Strategy - Toyota is pursuing a dual-track strategy of "hybrid and electric," maintaining its traditional strengths in fuel vehicles while also expanding its electric vehicle offerings [7]. - The launch of the Alphas 3X electric vehicle at a competitive price point has garnered significant consumer interest, with over 30,000 orders [7]. - Collaborations with local tech companies like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Huawei are enhancing Toyota's vehicle technology and connectivity features [7][9]. Future Developments - Toyota is investing in a dedicated Lexus electric vehicle factory in Shanghai, emphasizing the importance of electric vehicles in the Chinese market [9]. - The company's global vision combined with a strong local focus is seen as crucial for navigating industry cycles and meeting evolving consumer demands [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid expansion of Chinese restaurant brands in Southeast Asia, marking a new era of internationalization for Chinese cuisine [1][2][16] - Chinese restaurant brands have opened over 6,100 stores in Southeast Asia by the end of 2024, a significant increase from approximately 1,800 stores in 2022, indicating a growth of more than three times [1][5] - The Southeast Asian restaurant market has shown a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, reaching a scale of $132.9 billion, which is only 17% of the Chinese market size [5][6] Group 2 - The competitive landscape for Chinese restaurants in Southeast Asia is intensifying, with challenges such as supply chain issues, regulatory barriers, and cultural differences affecting consumer habits [2][11] - Localization is crucial for the success of Chinese restaurant brands abroad, as the degree of localization directly impacts the scalability of their overseas operations [2][17] - The preference for Chinese cuisine among Southeast Asian consumers is growing, with popular dishes like hot pot and dim sum gaining traction, reflecting a shift from traditional perceptions of Chinese food [3][12] Group 3 - Brands like Haidilao and Zhang Liang Spicy Hot Pot have successfully expanded into Southeast Asia, with Zhang Liang opening over 60 stores in the region, demonstrating the potential of the market [4][14] - The demographic factors in Southeast Asia, such as a large population and a significant Chinese community, contribute to the high demand for Chinese cuisine [4][5] - The restaurant industry in Southeast Asia is characterized by a high percentage of consumer spending on food and beverages, with Indonesia reaching 48.8% [6][11] Group 4 - The supply chain is a critical factor for the success of Chinese restaurants in Southeast Asia, with many brands adopting a hybrid approach of local and imported ingredients to ensure quality and compliance with local regulations [10][11] - The rapid expansion of Chinese restaurant brands is accompanied by a wave of closures, particularly in Singapore, where the market is becoming saturated [12][13] - Successful Chinese brands in Southeast Asia are those that effectively combine global standards with local adaptations, ensuring they resonate with local consumers [16][17]

Group 1 - Nidec Corporation is developing a nearly entirely "Made in China" electric vehicle motor to enhance Toyota's competitiveness in the Chinese automotive market, with approximately 99% of the materials and components sourced from China [1] - The E-Axle motor system is considered the "heart" of the second generation of electric vehicles and is increasingly adopted by Chinese automakers, applicable to various vehicle segments from small cars to large SUVs [1] - Nidec has begun supplying the E-Axle motor for Toyota's electric SUV bZ3X, which was launched in March 2023 with a starting price of around 110,000 RMB and has sold approximately 20,000 units to date [3] Group 2 - The bZ3X model, featuring a significant number of Chinese components, is a crucial step for Toyota to regain its footing in the highly competitive Chinese automotive market, as local sourcing helps reduce costs and vehicle prices [3] - Toyota's Asia head emphasized that without the Chinese supply chain, the bZ3X would not have been feasible, highlighting the importance of localization for market entry [3] - Nidec's recent developments are also seen as a critical self-rescue strategy, as the company has faced declining profitability and stock prices, leading to investor dissatisfaction [3][4] Group 3 - Nidec has expanded over the past 50 years by acquiring 75 companies and currently operates around 250 factories, with a restructuring plan announced by CEO Katsuya Kishida aimed at improving shareholder perception and potentially boosting stock prices [4] - The new $100 million factory in Qingdao, which began operations in July 2023, will produce household appliance motors, compressors, and electronic components, integrating previously separate business units [5] - The Qingdao Industrial Park is expected to produce 18 million motors and over 20 million control devices annually, serving as a new platform for product and technology output to over 70 global partners [5][7] Group 4 - Kishida expressed confidence in the Chinese market, noting the establishment of the Qingdao Industrial Park as a testament to the company's commitment to sustainable and innovative development [7] - Toyota is also significantly increasing its operations in China, with plans to invest approximately $2 billion in a new factory for its Lexus brand in Shanghai [7] - Nidec is confident in participating in Toyota's new projects and has already supplied various automotive components to the company [7]

Group 1: Industry Trends - The "smart consumer device" industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by the integration of hardware, services, and content, with a focus on technological breakthroughs and ecosystem collaboration [1][2] - Chinese smart consumer device companies are leveraging rapid iteration, engineering innovation, and strong supply chain integration to expand into global markets [2][6] - The core competitiveness of these companies has shifted from hardware manufacturing to user-oriented solutions that combine technology, scenarios, and ecosystems [3][4] Group 2: Company Strategies - YingShi Innovation has accelerated its global market presence, with nearly 80% of its revenue coming from overseas, focusing on tailored marketing strategies for different regions [2][6] - Ninebot's international expansion began with the acquisition of Segway in 2015, leading to product sales in over 100 countries, emphasizing brand and technology as key elements of its global strategy [2][6] - Stone Technology employs a "globalization + localization" strategy, aiming for over 50% of its revenue to come from overseas by 2024, while addressing cultural differences and local market needs [3][6] Group 3: Product Innovations - Ninebot has developed a smart ecosystem platform, NimbleOS, transforming short-distance transportation tools into interconnected smart devices, and has introduced innovative service robots [4][6] - Stone Technology is transitioning home cleaning from mere tools to intelligent management systems, capitalizing on the "lazy economy" and the demand for seamless user experiences [4][5] - YingShi Innovation is expanding its product applications from sports photography to various use cases, addressing specific user needs with innovative features [5][6] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Leading companies are enhancing their competitive edge through diversified supplier networks and vertical integration, ensuring supply chain stability and security [6][7] - Stone Technology focuses on domestic substitution and multi-supplier strategies to reduce reliance on single sources, while investing heavily in R&D to develop core technologies [6][7] - YingShi Innovation is improving its supply chain efficiency and increasing the localization of its supply chain, with significant investments in R&D amounting to 1.48 billion yuan over the past three years [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Shein has become a focal point in the investment community, with significant fluctuations in its estimated worth over recent years, leading to speculation about its upcoming IPO and potential market performance [1][2][5]. Valuation and IPO Journey - Shein's valuation has seen dramatic changes, peaking at $100 billion in April 2022 after its F-round financing, but has since faced downward adjustments, with estimates now around $300 billion to $500 billion as it navigates its IPO plans [2][6]. - The company has shifted its IPO strategy from the U.S. to the UK and now aims for a listing in Hong Kong, with hopes of achieving a valuation of $500 billion [5][6]. - The founder's wealth is closely tied to Shein's valuation, with estimates suggesting that a $500 billion valuation could increase his net worth to approximately 132.7 billion yuan [5]. Market Challenges - Shein faces significant challenges due to changing trade policies in major markets like the U.S. and EU, which have increased import costs and reduced its competitive pricing advantage [6][11]. - The company’s reliance on a fast-response supply chain model is under pressure as it seeks to expand production outside of China, particularly in Vietnam, where supply chain limitations exist [11]. Strategic Shifts - To address these challenges, Shein is focusing on platformization and localization strategies, aiming to transform from a fast-fashion retailer to a comprehensive fashion lifestyle platform [12][13]. - The company plans to enhance its supply chain by adopting a dual model that leverages Chinese design capabilities while producing in North America to mitigate tariff impacts [12][13]. Financial Performance - Shein's projected sales growth for 2024 is 19%, reaching $38 billion, which is below earlier expectations, and its net profit is anticipated to decline by nearly 40% to around $1 billion [6][9]. - The valuation of Shein is likely to be influenced by comparisons with established brands like Nike and Uniqlo, which have higher price-to-earnings ratios, suggesting that Shein's reasonable valuation may be closer to $300 billion [6]. Investment Dynamics - The ongoing IPO process has created a complex landscape of interests among investors, with earlier investors likely to see substantial returns while later-stage investors may face significant losses if the valuation does not meet expectations [9][10]. - The company’s ability to present a compelling growth narrative and address investor concerns will be crucial for its upcoming IPO and overall market reception [12][13].

Core Insights - Emerging markets are currently the largest increment in China's foreign trade, with the bilateral trade volume between ASEAN and Guangdong expected to exceed 1.45 trillion yuan in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - Cross-border e-commerce is playing a crucial role in promoting "Guangdong manufacturing" to go global and enhancing cross-border supply chain cooperation [1] Group 1: Opportunities in Southeast Asia - ASEAN has been Guangdong's largest trading partner for five consecutive years, showcasing significant advantages in industrial collaboration and digital empowerment [3] - The Guangdong Provincial Council for the Promotion of International Trade plans to continue promoting e-commerce standardization and cross-border service efficiency [3] - Malaysia is emerging as a "golden springboard" for Chinese enterprises entering the ASEAN market due to its rapid e-commerce development and high internet penetration [3] Group 2: E-commerce Platforms and Innovations - Chinese merchants are increasingly entering ASEAN markets through platforms like Shopee and Lazada, which are becoming global e-commerce growth engines [4] - Lazada offers a fully managed model that alleviates the challenges of going overseas, allowing sellers to focus on supply while the platform handles operations and logistics [4] - Shopee has developed a localized fulfillment engine to address cross-border logistics challenges, achieving delivery times of 2-3 days and reducing logistics costs by up to 83% [4] Group 3: Local Market Adaptation - Despite the opportunities in ASEAN, competition is fierce, and companies face challenges such as a lack of technology and talent [5] - A case study highlighted a Malaysian batik brand that successfully entered the Indonesian and Vietnamese markets by localizing its products and hiring local designers [5] - Future cooperation between Guangdong and Thailand could be enhanced through supply chain collaboration, logistics upgrades, and cross-border payment cooperation [5] Group 4: Logistics and Payment Solutions - J&T Express has achieved 100% coverage in Indonesia through 82 transit centers, addressing high logistics costs for mid-distance sea transport [6] - The company is also forming strategic partnerships with leading mobile payment platforms in ASEAN to promote digital payment methods and improve e-commerce penetration [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market is undergoing a significant structural adjustment, with domestic brands increasing their market share at the expense of foreign brands, which now hold less than 35% of the market [4]. Group 1: Domestic Brand Growth - In 2024, domestic passenger car sales are projected to reach 17.97 million units, accounting for 65.2% of total passenger car sales, an increase of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In April 2025, domestic brands achieved retail sales of 1.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31%, with a market share of 65.5%, up 8 percentage points [4]. - From January to April 2025, domestic brands held a retail market share of 64%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points compared to the previous year, particularly gaining in the new energy and export markets [4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Foreign Brands - Kia is struggling in the Chinese market due to a lack of clarity in positioning and slow progress in electrification, with only 21.5% of global sales being electric models in 2024 [6]. - Skoda's sales in China fell by 23.1% year-on-year to 17,500 units in 2024, as it is squeezed by both the Volkswagen brand's price cuts and the competitive offerings from domestic brands [9][10]. - Jeep's focus on SUVs has led to a disconnect with Chinese consumer preferences, resulting in a decline in brand presence and market share [11]. Group 3: Global Performance of Foreign Brands - Despite challenges in China, Kia remains strong in its home market and is expanding in North America and Europe, achieving over 3 million global sales in 2024 [20]. - Skoda's global sales reached 926,600 units in 2024, with strong performance in Europe, particularly in Germany, the Czech Republic, and the UK [21]. - Jeep's brand recognition and performance in North America remain robust, with 90% of its global sales coming from this market, totaling 587,800 units in 2024 [23]. Group 4: Lessons Learned - The struggles of foreign brands in China highlight the importance of understanding local consumer preferences and adapting product strategies accordingly [28]. - Successful global strategies require a deep understanding of localization, which encompasses product definition, technology routes, brand communication, and supply chain management [29]. - Brands must recognize their positioning and strengths, focusing on markets that align with their core competencies rather than pursuing broad-scale expansion [29].