Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In March 2025, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.47% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.54%[1] - Sales in March 2025 rose by 4.05% year-on-year, up from 3.21% previously[1] - The U.S. was expected to enter an active destocking phase by late 2024, but tariff expectations led to a surge in imports, particularly in industrial and consumer goods, exceeding seasonal norms and potentially overextending future demand[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - As of March 2025, 10 out of 14 major industries were in a passive restocking phase, including chemicals, building materials, and metals[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory growth in March was 40.8%, with chemicals at 87.1%, building materials at 68.9%, and automotive parts at 55.1%, indicating high inventory levels relative to historical data[19] - The oil and gas sector has been in an active destocking phase since March 2025, while other sectors remain in passive restocking[20] - The transportation sector is currently in an active destocking phase, while machinery manufacturing is in a passive destocking phase[21] - Consumer goods, including durable goods and textiles, are also in a passive restocking phase as of March 2025[22]

Core Viewpoint - The overall inventory cycle in the U.S. is likely transitioning towards an active destocking phase by 2025, with significant implications for various industries [1][2][3]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, U.S. total inventory increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%. Sales increased by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% [2][3]. - The inventory cycle remains in a passive restocking phase due to "import grabbing," with Q1 net imports increasing by $359.26 billion year-on-year, of which over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory [2][3]. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industry categories, 8 are in a passive restocking phase, including upstream chemical products, building materials, midstream electrical equipment, and downstream durable consumer goods [4]. - Historical inventory percentiles show that total inventory is at a historical percentile of 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper and forestry products at 53.8% [4]. Upstream Inventory Status - Half of the upstream industries are in passive restocking, while the other half are in active destocking [5][6][7][8]. - Specific sectors like oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels are in active destocking as of February 2025 [5]. Midstream Inventory Status - Inventory status is mixed, with paper and forestry products in active restocking, while electrical equipment and transportation are in passive restocking [9][10]. - Mechanical manufacturing is currently in passive destocking [9]. Downstream Inventory Status - The current passive restocking phase is prolonged, indicating potential "import grabbing" demand [11]. - Automotive parts are transitioning to active destocking as of February 2025, while other sectors like household durable goods and textiles remain in passive restocking [11].