Market Overview - A-shares opened mixed on September 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - Sectors such as batteries and aerospace equipment saw significant gains, while sectors like duty-free and CPO experienced notable declines [1] Institutional Insights - Huatai Securities noted that the A-share mid-term performance has shown a clear divergence, with short cycles continuing to bottom out but showing initial signs of improvement [2] - The report highlighted that advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors are expected to see continued supply-demand improvements, while infrastructure chain revenue is approaching a turning point [2] - A-share mid-term dividend payouts have reached a historical high, suggesting a favorable environment for investors [2] Sector Focus - CITIC Securities expressed a bullish outlook on lithium batteries and energy storage, citing the upcoming peak season and unexpected demand in the storage sector [3] - The report indicated that the supply-demand relationship in the lithium battery sector has fundamentally shifted, with strong earnings visibility and low valuations [3] - Tianfeng Securities emphasized the investment opportunities in edge AI, driven by policy support and major company innovations, particularly highlighting Apple's commitment to product innovation in this area [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a rebound last Friday, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, and the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 3800-point level. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 6.55% [1]. Sector Performance - Solid-state batteries, photovoltaics, CPO, and third-generation semiconductors were among the top-performing sectors, while a few sectors such as banking and dairy experienced declines [1]. Analyst Insights Huatai Securities - Huatai Securities noted that the short-cycle continues to show differentiation, with TMT and advanced manufacturing likely to see sustained proactive inventory replenishment. The overall recovery in inventory levels is expected to take time to reflect in revenue. The report highlighted that the mid-term dividend distribution in A-shares has reached a historical high, suggesting a focus on sectors like power grid equipment, engineering machinery, and basic chemicals [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities expressed a bullish outlook on lithium batteries and energy storage, citing the upcoming peak season and unexpected demand in energy storage. The supply-demand relationship in the lithium battery sector has significantly improved, with stable performance from low-valuation leading companies being favored. The report also mentioned that the domestic market for energy storage is expected to grow due to favorable policies and increasing demand in overseas markets [3]. Tianfeng Securities - Tianfeng Securities highlighted the investment opportunities in edge AI, driven by supportive policies, leadership from major companies, and upcoming product launches. The report emphasized Apple's commitment to innovation in edge AI products, which could lead to unexpected improvements in user experience and sales, suggesting a focus on Apple's supply chain [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the A-share mid-term performance has been disclosed, showing a continuation of the bottoming characteristics observed in the first quarter, with significant sector differentiation [1] Group 1: Performance Trends - Short-cycle sectors continue to bottom out but show initial signs of improvement, with a recovery in overall inventory replenishment efforts; however, the transmission of balance sheet and order recovery to revenue repair will take time [1] - Structural differentiation remains evident, with advanced manufacturing and TMT sectors expected to continue experiencing dual improvements in supply and demand, while the income inflection point for the infrastructure chain is approaching [1] - Mid-cycle sectors continue to decline, but there is an increase in the number of cleared and "quasi-cleared" subcategories [1] Group 2: Dividend and Investment Recommendations - A-share mid-term dividend efforts have reached a historical high [1] - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on industries with new dual improvements in supply and demand, such as power grid equipment, engineering machinery, and basic chemicals, as well as steel [1] - Given the resilience of high-frequency economic data, sectors identified in the first quarter, including lithium batteries, communication equipment, minor metals, and packaging printing, remain worthy of continued attention [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The commodity market in the first half of 2025 is significantly driven by macroeconomic factors, reflecting weak demand from China and the U.S., as well as changes in overseas policies and geopolitical situations. The second half of the year will continue to focus on economic and policy trends, with domestic "anti-involution" movements influencing market perceptions of capacity adjustments and commodity value reassessment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the commodity market experienced notable macro-driven changes, with geopolitical tensions pushing precious metals to new highs while domestic supply conditions pressured many commodities to near historical lows [6][20]. - The market can be divided into three phases: pre-February with concerns over U.S. policy uncertainty, March to mid-May with rising commodity risk sentiment, and post-mid-May following the Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. that led to a rebound in previously low-priced commodities [8][9][10]. - The market's basic reflection of policy environments and past economic changes indicates that spot prices for some assets are relatively effective, but intuitive trading based on insufficient analysis poses risks [3][19]. Group 2: U.S.-China Economic Cycle - The economic conditions of China and the U.S. significantly influence commodity pricing, with both countries experiencing a phase of weak demand, leading to overall market pressure [28][30]. - The cyclical relationship between China and the U.S. suggests that while there are opportunities for commodity rebounds, the overall adjustment cycle has not yet concluded [27][28]. - The "anti-involution" policies in China are interpreted as a direction to help industries escape competitive dilemmas, leading to a potential revaluation of commodity prices [26][43]. Group 3: Potential Trading Logic - Energy prices are sensitive to supply expectations, with OPEC+ decisions impacting market trends. The recent increase in production by OPEC+ has created a bearish trend, while U.S. policy shocks have further depressed prices [53][55]. - In the non-ferrous metals sector, U.S. trade policies, particularly regarding copper, are crucial for pricing dynamics, with inventory shifts affecting market conditions [60][61]. - The renewable energy sector is undergoing adjustments due to low-price competition, necessitating industry self-discipline and policy regulation to restore balance [66][70]. Group 4: Agricultural Commodities - Weather conditions and trade flows are critical for agricultural commodities, with the summer season being pivotal for crop growth. Predictions indicate that extreme weather may not significantly impact yields this year [71][74]. - Changes in trade policies are likely to alter pricing logic, with potential shifts in trade flows affecting domestic pricing strategies for agricultural products [77].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In March 2025, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.47% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.54%[1] - Sales in March 2025 rose by 4.05% year-on-year, up from 3.21% previously[1] - The U.S. was expected to enter an active destocking phase by late 2024, but tariff expectations led to a surge in imports, particularly in industrial and consumer goods, exceeding seasonal norms and potentially overextending future demand[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - As of March 2025, 10 out of 14 major industries were in a passive restocking phase, including chemicals, building materials, and metals[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory growth in March was 40.8%, with chemicals at 87.1%, building materials at 68.9%, and automotive parts at 55.1%, indicating high inventory levels relative to historical data[19] - The oil and gas sector has been in an active destocking phase since March 2025, while other sectors remain in passive restocking[20] - The transportation sector is currently in an active destocking phase, while machinery manufacturing is in a passive destocking phase[21] - Consumer goods, including durable goods and textiles, are also in a passive restocking phase as of March 2025[22]

Group 1 - The recent reduction in "reciprocal tariffs" has led to a surge in demand for shipping containers among home appliance companies, with reports of container prices increasing by 20,000 to 40,000 yuan [2][3] - Companies are experiencing a situation where the demand for containers exceeds supply, leading to a competitive environment for securing shipping space [2][3] - The logistics sector has seen a significant increase in shipping volumes to the U.S., with container booking volumes from China to the U.S. rising nearly 300% following the tariff adjustments [5][6] Group 2 - Despite the tariff reductions, some companies are facing logistical challenges that hinder smooth trade, as they struggle to secure shipping containers and vessels [3][4] - The overall shipping rates have increased, with the Shanghai-New York container freight index rising to 4,350 USD, reflecting a 19.31% increase [6] - The current shipping situation is characterized by a mismatch in supply and demand, with many shipping routes being adjusted due to previous tariff policies [7] Group 3 - Home appliance companies have mixed feelings about the tariff reductions; while some clients are eager to place orders, others remain cautious and are reassessing their strategies [8][9] - The impact of tariff changes has led to operational disruptions, requiring companies to reallocate production capacity and manage increased workloads [9][10] - Some companies report that their orders to the U.S. have recovered to about 60% of last year's levels, driven by clients needing to replenish low inventories [9][10] Group 4 - The sudden drop in tariffs has created challenges for cross-border e-commerce, particularly for new entrants in highly concentrated product categories like electric pressure cookers [12] - Companies are facing difficulties in hiring due to the fluctuating demand for labor, with many workers seeking alternative employment during periods of low orders [13][14] - Digital transformation initiatives in the home appliance sector are helping companies manage production scheduling and capacity issues more effectively [14][15]