Domestic Aspects - Economic data for August shows low operating rates for midstream products, indicating continued effects of anti-involution policies, while upstream operating rates are stronger than last year, suggesting a rebound in infrastructure investment [1][3] - The week of August 10 saw a significant rebound in container and cargo throughput, exceeding historical levels, indicating continued support for exports [3][7] - The central bank's liquidity tightening intentions may be indicated if the DR007 rate rises above 1.5%, aligning with previous statements about addressing the misalignment of monetary policies between China and the US [1][3][7] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate, potentially returning to the 6 range, which would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][3][7] Overseas Aspects - The US July PPI data may lead the Federal Reserve to lock in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the Jackson Hole meeting being a key observation window [4][8] - High PPI and weak CPI suggest that US businesses are absorbing most of the tariff costs, indicating a delayed transmission of inflation to consumer prices [4][8] - The US tariff policies are aimed at boosting domestic investment, with potential new legislation from Trump to enhance election prospects before the midterm elections [4][8] - A meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 resulted in positive statements, possibly driven by political performance pressures [4][8] Monetary Liquidity Tracking - The overall liquidity remains loose, with a slight increase in benchmark rates and positive net financing for government bonds [5][13] - The average weekly DR001 and DR007 rates have increased, indicating a tightening in the money market [14] - Government bond issuance is set to rise significantly next week, reflecting a decrease in pressure on government debt [15] Major Asset Performance - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3700 [22] - The US stock market indices showed upward trends, while the bond market experienced adjustments [27] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have declined, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable against the dollar [27]

Domestic Economic Insights - August high-frequency data indicates low operating rates in midstream products, reflecting the effects of anti-involution policies, while upstream operating rates are stronger than last year[2] - Cement and asphalt production improvements suggest a rebound in infrastructure investment, with exports still supported by volume[2] - July economic data shows industrial value-added growth at 5.7% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment growth is at 1.6%[20] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - If the DR007 rate rises above 1.5%, it indicates the central bank's intention to marginally tighten liquidity, aligning with previous statements on reversing the misalignment of monetary policies between China and the US[2] - The central bank's recent financial data shows a net increase in social financing of 1.16 trillion RMB, with new RMB loans at -50 billion RMB, reflecting weak financing demand[19] Currency and Asset Valuation - A potential appreciation of the RMB could lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets, enhancing the comparative advantages of inflation and domestic demand strategies[2] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to return to the 6 range, increasing the attractiveness of Chinese assets[2] International Economic Context - The US July PPI data may lead the Federal Reserve to lock in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the Jackson Hole meeting being a key observation window[18] - The impact of tariffs on US CPI is expected to manifest gradually, with only 20%-30% of the tariff impact reflected in July's CPI data[18] Market Performance Overview - A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3700, while the Hang Seng Index showed modest increases[40] - The bond market experienced substantial adjustments, with US 10-year Treasury yields rising[40]

Core Viewpoint - The data from May 2025 indicates that the U.S. is entering an active destocking phase, with total inventory increasing by 2.62% year-on-year and total sales increasing by 3.30% year-on-year, both showing a decline from previous values [1][2]. Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, total U.S. inventory increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% previously, while total sales increased by 3.30% year-on-year, down from 3.68% [2]. - The U.S. is confirmed to be in an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025, and imports returning to normal levels in April and May 2025 [2]. - A short-term replenishment demand is expected in June and July 2025, but active destocking is anticipated to continue thereafter, with excess imports expected to be depleted by November 2025 [2]. U.S. Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in May, six are in active destocking, including upstream oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels, chemical products, midstream transportation, and downstream automotive and automotive parts, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, and food, beverages, and tobacco [3]. - Historical inventory levels show that construction materials, chemical products, metals and mining, paper and forestry products, and technology hardware and equipment have higher inventory levels compared to historical percentiles [3]. Upstream Inventory Trends - Oil, natural gas, and consumer fuels have been in active replenishment from July 2023 to May 2024, transitioning to active destocking by June 2024 and remaining in that phase until May 2025 [4]. - Chemical products are expected to transition from passive replenishment to active destocking by May 2025 [5]. - Construction materials and metals and mining are currently in passive replenishment, with a high likelihood of transitioning to active destocking in the future [6]. Midstream Inventory Trends - The transportation sector is likely in active destocking, while paper and forestry products, as well as electrical equipment and appliances, are in passive replenishment [7]. - Mechanical manufacturing has transitioned to active replenishment as of March 2025 [7]. Downstream Inventory Trends - The automotive and automotive parts sector is in active replenishment as of December 2024 [8]. - Household durable goods, textiles, clothing, luxury goods, food, beverages, and tobacco are in passive replenishment, with some expected to transition to active replenishment in April and May 2025 [8].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In May, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.62% year-on-year, down from 3.15% in the previous period[12] - Sales in May rose by 3.30% year-on-year, compared to 3.68% previously[12] - The U.S. is confirmed to be entering an active destocking phase, with a significant import surge occurring from November 2024 to March 2025[12] - A brief replenishment demand is expected in June and July, after which active destocking will continue[12] Industry Inventory Cycle - Six out of fourteen major industries are in active destocking as of May, including oil, gas, chemicals, transportation, automotive parts, textiles, and food[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in May is 32.4%, with construction materials at 83.6% and chemicals at 69.3%[19] - The first round of excess imports is estimated at $180 billion and the second at $100 billion, totaling $280 billion, which may be exhausted by November[12] - Recent rapid declines in copper prices are attributed to a 50% tariff on copper products while exempting raw materials, disrupting supply and demand dynamics[13] Risk Factors - The potential for U.S. economic fundamentals and policies to exceed expectations poses a risk to inventory and pricing stability[8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the meeting on July 30, indicating ongoing concerns about stagflation risks and the challenges in lowering interest rates as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects its cautious stance on inflation and employment dynamics [1] - The current pace of balance sheet reduction remains unchanged, signaling a steady approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - New tariffs set to take effect on August 1 will not be reflected in import data until September, which may lead to a delayed inflation impact observed in October and November [1] - The potential for tariff-induced inflation could prolong the timeline for any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market is currently pricing in a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, suggesting that investors are preparing for the possibility of no rate reduction [1] - The absence of a rate cut in September could indicate that the risk-free interest rate will no longer serve as a positive factor for the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商宏观 indicates that as long as the inflation gap remains higher than the employment gap, the Federal Reserve will find it difficult to lower interest rates [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Powell expresses significant concern over inflation risks, suggesting that the current inflation is above target levels [1] - The Federal Reserve's forward guidance in June highlighted concerns about stagflation, which continued into July [1] Group 2: Employment Situation - Employment is currently at target levels, which contrasts with the elevated inflation, leading to a need for a moderately restrictive policy [1] - The focus on inflation over employment suggests a prioritization of controlling price levels in the current economic environment [1] Group 3: Policy Implications - The necessity for Powell to confirm that tariff-induced inflation impacts are fully reflected in the current economic assessments [1]