" 特朗普行事激进，俄乌问题解决后油价反弹，中国维持人民币低价，很快所有大宗商品 图表都会像黄金一样（走势强劲）；拉美股市在告诉你什么。" 果然，大宗商品就喜欢刺激政策……全球金融危机导致了货币超发，而财政紧缩则意味着， 在长期停滞时代，债券的表现远超大宗商品…… ……但新冠疫情导致了财政过度扩张，货币过度扩张则相对较少，再加上全球化的终结， 这意味着在 21 世纪 20 年代这个政治民粹主义和通胀性增长的时代，大宗商品的表现将 远超债券。 Bofa Hartnett：很快所有大宗商品图表都会像黄金一样 又到了年末时节，随着那些（无用的）来年预测告一段落，2025 年只剩下三周时间，策 略师们的报告正变得越来越简短……而在最新的 Flow Show 中，Hartnett 用极具玛丽莲· 梦露风格的标题《Some like it hot》，既没有让人失望——当然，如果你期待的是又 一篇冗长的金融分析灵感文，那可能就要失望了。 两周前，Hartnett 让我们开始将比特币视为美联储即将投降的早期预警指标（他的同事 Mark Cabana 如今证实了这一点，他预测美联储不仅会在周三降息 25 个基点，还会启 动 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [12] Core Views - The company's project construction is progressing steadily, with the PO/MTBE unit reaching the expected operational status. The focus on research and innovation has opened up a new track in electronic specialty gases, which is expected to contribute to future performance [3][12] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.228 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.00%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 42.77% to 219 million yuan. The revenue growth was primarily driven by the operation of the PDH unit and increased sales of propylene, propane, and butane. However, the decline in profit was due to a significant drop in the prices of main products, while the decrease in raw material and energy costs was relatively small, leading to a decline in gross profit margin [12] Financial Summary - For 2023A, the company reported a revenue of 7.306 billion yuan, with a projected revenue of 10.228 billion yuan for 2024A, reflecting a 40.00% increase. The net profit for 2023A was 383 million yuan, with a projected decrease to 219 million yuan for 2024A [11][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.11 yuan, with projections of 0.16 yuan for 2025 and 0.21 yuan for 2026. The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to be 1.9% for 2024, increasing to 5.9% by 2027 [11][12] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 22.956 billion yuan in 2024A to 27.308 billion yuan in 2027E, while total liabilities are expected to increase from 11.574 billion yuan in 2024A to 13.970 billion yuan in 2027E [13] Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 8.767 billion yuan, with a current stock price of 4.26 yuan and a target price adjusted to 4.86 yuan [6][12] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.8 based on the current price, and the price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 38.30 for 2024 [12][14]