证 券 研 究 报 告 中国海油（600938）2025 年三季报点评 强推（维持） 成本同比优化，圭亚那 Yellowtail 项目投产 目标价：36.24 元 事项： ❖ 中国海油发布 2025 年三季度报告，前三季度实现营收 3125.03 亿元，同比- 4.15%，实现归母净利润 1019.71 亿元，同比-12.59%。其中 Q3 实现营收 1048.95 亿元，同/环比+5.68%/+4.11%，实现归母净利润 324.38 亿元，同/环比-12.10%/- 1.59%。 证券分析师：杨晖 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 420,506 | 431,353 | 443,310 | 457,647 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 137,936 | 138,166 | 143,603 | 146,928 | | 同比增速(% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target price of 32.45 CNY [2][8]. Core Insights - CNOOC's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 420.51 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.94%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.94 billion CNY, up 11.38% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.66 HKD per share, leading to an expected payout ratio of 44.7% [2][4]. - The company achieved oil and gas sales revenue of approximately 355.62 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase, primarily due to increased sales volume and exchange rate fluctuations [8]. - CNOOC's production volume reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, representing a 7.2% increase year-on-year, driven by contributions from domestic fields and international projects [8]. - The company has optimized its cost structure, with the main cost per barrel of oil at 28.52 USD, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year [8]. - CNOOC's balance sheet has improved, with a capital debt ratio declining by 4.3 percentage points to 10.9%, and the company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% for the years 2025-2027 [8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, CNOOC's total revenue is projected at 420.51 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 0.9% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 137.94 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 11.4% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 2.90 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 [4]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit over the next few years, with projected revenues of 431.35 billion CNY in 2025 and 443.31 billion CNY in 2026 [4]. Investment Recommendations - Based on current oil price trends and production growth, the report forecasts net profits of 140.3 billion CNY, 143.7 billion CNY, and 147.9 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9 for 2025 and 2026, and 8 for 2027 [8].