当地时间10月1日，ADP研究所发布美国9月私营部门就业报告，美国私营部门就业数据在9月意外疲 软。 这份有"小非农"之称的就业报告显示，美国私营部门9月份意外减少了3.2万个就业岗位，而此前8月份 的数据也被修正为减少3000人（原数据为增加5.4万个）。这一数据远超市场预期，此前路透社调查的 经济学家平均预期为新增5万个岗位。 图片来源：ADP Research官网 ADP在报告中指出，此次数据下滑部分源于9月份对年度数据进行了基准调整。根据2024年全年《就业 与工资季度普查》（QCEW）数据，ADP于9月份对《全国就业报告》进行了年度初步重新基准调整。 此次重新调整导致9月份就业岗位较基准调整前减少了4.3万个。 但ADP强调，即使剔除技术调整的影响，整体趋势并未改变，大多数行业的就业增长势头持续减弱，无 论是商品生产部门还是服务业，就业岗位均出现下滑，显示出普遍的放缓迹象。 | Change in U.S. Private Employment: | | -32,000 | | --- | --- | --- | | Change by Industry | | | | Goods-producin ...

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]