2026年2月12日，推迟近一周的美国1月非农就业数据意外向好，短暂提振美元指数冲高，但多头未能守 涨，尾盘回吐多数涨幅后小幅收涨。尽管非农带来短期拉升，但美联储年内降息预期未根本改变，叠加 技术面承压，美元指数仍维持震荡偏弱格局，后续走势取决于通胀数据及美联储政策指引。 当地时间2月11日，美国劳工统计局数据显示，1月非农就业人口新增13万人(预期5.5万人)，较去年12月 下修后的4.8万人显著回升；失业率降至4.3%(预期4.4%)，更广泛失业指标降至8%(环比降0.4个百分 点)，印证就业市场回暖。 就业增长呈行业分化：医疗保健(+8.2万)、社会援助(+4.2万)为主要增长动力，建筑业回暖新增3.3万岗 位；而联邦政府(-3.4万)、金融行业(-2.2万)出现岗位流失。 本次报告包含2025年3月前一年基准修正数据，初始就业累计下修89.8万人(略低于预估91.1万人)。2025 年美国非农就业持续疲软，多月份负增长且全部数据遭下修，这一趋势未因前劳工统计局局长被解雇而 改变。 美联储官员表态分化：旧金山联储主席戴利于2月6日表示，美联储或需再降息1-2次应对劳动力市场疲 软，前提是关税影响消退、通 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected growth in January, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000, significantly surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 55,000 [2][3] - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.3%, below the market expectation of 4.4%, indicating an overall improvement in the employment situation [3][4] - The healthcare sector was the primary driver of job growth, adding 82,000 positions, while the social assistance sector contributed 42,000 jobs [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicated a downward revision of initial employment data by 898,000 for the year prior, aligning with Wall Street expectations [4] - Analysts noted that the strong job growth in January may stabilize the labor market, despite ongoing weaknesses, providing a more encouraging outlook for the year ahead [4] - Following the employment data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut were pushed back from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut in March dropping from 19.6% to 6% [5][6]

家庭调查数据 1月失业率为4.3%，失业人数为740万人，均变化不大。这两项指标均高于一年前的水平，当时失业率 为4.0%，失业人数为690万人。 在主要劳动者群体中，1月青少年失业率降至13.6%。成年男性（3.8%）、成年女性（4.0%）以及白人 （3.7%）、黑人（7.2%）、亚裔（4.1%）和西班牙裔（4.7%）的失业率当月变化不大。 1月长期失业者（失业27周及以上）人数基本持平，为180万人，但较一年前增加38.6万人。长期失业者 占1月全部失业人口的25.0%。 1月劳动力参与率为62.5%，就业人口比率为59.8%，均变化不大。这些指标在过去一年中总体保持稳 定。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 美国劳工统计局今日报告称，1月非农就业人数增加13万人，失业率小幅变动，维持在4.3%。就业增长 主要来自医疗保健、社会援助和建筑业，而联邦政府和金融活动领域就业人数减少。 本新闻稿基于两项月度调查的数据。家庭调查按人口特征衡量劳动力状况，包括失业情况；企业调查则 按行业衡量非农就业人数、工作时长和收入水平。 1月因经济原因从事兼职工作的人数减 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in 2025, with a notable slowdown in job growth and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.4% in December, down by 0.2 percentage points month-over-month [1] - In December 2025, the U.S. added 50,000 non-farm jobs, with an annual total of 584,000 jobs added for the year, averaging 49,000 jobs per month, which is significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024, averaging 168,000 jobs per month [1] - The employment growth in December 2025 was primarily driven by the restaurant services, healthcare, and social assistance sectors, while retail employment saw a decline [1] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for private sector non-farm employees increased by $0.12 to $37.02 in December, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.8% [1] - The U.S. Labor Department revised the non-farm employment data for October and November 2025, indicating a downward adjustment of job losses from 105,000 to 173,000 in October and a reduction in job gains from 64,000 to 56,000 in November, totaling a decrease of 76,000 jobs over the two months [1] - Economists suggest that while the pace of job growth in 2025 has slowed, it also signals a trend towards stability, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level in over four years, up from 4.4% in September [2][3] - The job market is showing signs of "high-frequency volatility and low-speed growth," with three months of net job losses in the past six months [3] - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, which was above the expected 45,000, but insufficient to offset previous job losses [4][3] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily occurring in low productivity or government-dependent sectors, while sectors representing economic vitality, such as manufacturing and professional services, are contracting [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 6,000 in November and saw a significant drop of 162,000 in October, with a total reduction of approximately 270,000 since January [8][9] - The wage growth in the private sector fell to 3.5% year-over-year in November, the lowest in years, indicating that wage increases are not keeping pace with living costs [11][12] Group 3 - The current employment situation is characterized as "low-fire, low-hire," where companies are hesitant to make large layoffs or expand hiring, reflecting a cautious approach to seasonal employment and the testing of AI replacements [15] - The report suggests that the true state of the U.S. job market may be weaker than indicated, as the Federal Reserve has warned that current statistical models may overestimate job additions by about 60,000 each month [13][14] - The employment market is entering a dangerous phase, showing signs of cooling without a clear collapse, which could lead to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty [17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商香港 indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing marginal benefits, with significant performance in the AI and non-ferrous metal sectors, driven by technological upgrades and global digitalization trends [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The AI industry is showing strong growth momentum due to technological upgrades and the global digitalization trend [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and demand from the new energy sector, presenting structural opportunities [1] - There is a continued deepening of industry differentiation, with resilience observed in the service sectors such as healthcare and accommodation, while cyclical industries like manufacturing are showing signs of contraction [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Overall, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach an upward turning point driven by the dual themes of AI and non-ferrous metals [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which consists of 50 leading companies in the Hong Kong market, selected based on market capitalization and liquidity [1] - The index encompasses both emerging sectors like new consumption and fintech, as well as traditional economic sectors, reflecting the overall performance of representative quality listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1]

Group 1 - The delayed employment report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates a complex labor market in early autumn, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, marking the first negative value since January 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The September employment report presents conflicting signals, with strong job growth reported but an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [5] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time employment, slightly decreased to 8% [5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7% [5] Group 3 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs in September, continuing a stable growth trend over the past year [7] - The restaurant and drinking places sector saw an increase of 37,000 jobs, while social assistance added 14,000 jobs [7] - Conversely, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a loss of 97,000 jobs since January [7] Group 4 - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, with some officials suggesting a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [9] - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a rate cut in December significantly decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates rising to 67.2% [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve will face challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the employment reports for October and November will be combined and released after the December meeting [11] - The absence of October unemployment data due to the government shutdown adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process [11]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating extreme levels of trade protectionism [1] - The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, will affect 69 trading partners, with 40 countries facing a 15% tariff rate [3] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Increases - The tariffs are expected to increase average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025, with significant impacts on clothing prices, which may rise by 38% [3] - Short-term price increases for consumer goods are anticipated, with footwear prices potentially increasing by 40% [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] - The weak employment report has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, raising expectations from 40% to 63% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion due to the new tariffs [5] - European stock markets also fell sharply, with major indices dropping nearly 3% in France [5] - Increased market volatility led to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold surging by 2.22% to surpass $3,360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]