中新社华盛顿1月9日电 (记者陈孟统)美国劳工部9日发布数据称，美国2025年12月新增5万个非农就业岗 位，失业率为4.4%，环比下降0.2个百分点。 数据显示，美国2025年全年非农就业新增58.4万人，月均增加4.9万人，低于2024年新增200万人、月均 增加16.8万人的水平。 《华尔街日报》分析称，上述数据表明美国2025年12月就业增速依然低迷，为美国劳动力市场明显降温 的一年画上句号。 具体行业来看，2025年12月的就业增长主要来自餐饮服务业、医疗保健业和社会援助领域，零售业就业 出现下降。2025年餐饮服务业月均新增就业1.2万人，与2024年的月均1.1万人大体相当。医疗保健业 2025年月均新增就业3.4万人，低于2024年的5.6万人。 在薪资增长方面，美国去年12月私营部门非农员工平均时薪上涨12美分，至37.02美元，同比增长 3.8%。 美联社援引经济学家的观点认为，2025年美国就业增长的节奏明显放缓，但也显示出"趋于稳定"的信 号，这将让美联储不急于进一步降息。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 美国劳工部在这份报告中同时修订2025年10月和11月的非农就业数据：2025年 ...

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, marking the highest level in over four years, up from 4.4% in September [2][3] - The job market is showing signs of "high-frequency volatility and low-speed growth," with three months of net job losses in the past six months [3] - November saw an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs, which was above the expected 45,000, but insufficient to offset previous job losses [4][3] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily occurring in low productivity or government-dependent sectors, while sectors representing economic vitality, such as manufacturing and professional services, are contracting [6] - Federal government jobs decreased by 6,000 in November and saw a significant drop of 162,000 in October, with a total reduction of approximately 270,000 since January [8][9] - The wage growth in the private sector fell to 3.5% year-over-year in November, the lowest in years, indicating that wage increases are not keeping pace with living costs [11][12] Group 3 - The current employment situation is characterized as "low-fire, low-hire," where companies are hesitant to make large layoffs or expand hiring, reflecting a cautious approach to seasonal employment and the testing of AI replacements [15] - The report suggests that the true state of the U.S. job market may be weaker than indicated, as the Federal Reserve has warned that current statistical models may overestimate job additions by about 60,000 each month [13][14] - The employment market is entering a dangerous phase, showing signs of cooling without a clear collapse, which could lead to a prolonged period of economic uncertainty [17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商香港 indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing marginal benefits, with significant performance in the AI and non-ferrous metal sectors, driven by technological upgrades and global digitalization trends [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The AI industry is showing strong growth momentum due to technological upgrades and the global digitalization trend [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is benefiting from global supply chain restructuring and demand from the new energy sector, presenting structural opportunities [1] - There is a continued deepening of industry differentiation, with resilience observed in the service sectors such as healthcare and accommodation, while cyclical industries like manufacturing are showing signs of contraction [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Overall, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to reach an upward turning point driven by the dual themes of AI and non-ferrous metals [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 ETF (159712) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 Index (930931), which consists of 50 leading companies in the Hong Kong market, selected based on market capitalization and liquidity [1] - The index encompasses both emerging sectors like new consumption and fintech, as well as traditional economic sectors, reflecting the overall performance of representative quality listed companies in the Hong Kong market [1]

Group 1 - The delayed employment report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates a complex labor market in early autumn, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, while the August data was revised down to a loss of 4,000 jobs, marking the first negative value since January 2024 [1][3] Group 2 - The September employment report presents conflicting signals, with strong job growth reported but an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September [5] - The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time workers seeking full-time employment, slightly decreased to 8% [5] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year growth was at 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7% [5] Group 3 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs in September, continuing a stable growth trend over the past year [7] - The restaurant and drinking places sector saw an increase of 37,000 jobs, while social assistance added 14,000 jobs [7] - Conversely, the transportation and warehousing sector lost 25,000 jobs, and federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a loss of 97,000 jobs since January [7] Group 4 - There is increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to lower interest rates in December, with some officials suggesting a rate cut may be appropriate if economic conditions align with expectations [9] - Following the release of the meeting minutes, market expectations for a rate cut in December significantly decreased, with the probability of maintaining rates rising to 67.2% [9] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve will face challenges due to the lack of key economic data, as the employment reports for October and November will be combined and released after the December meeting [11] - The absence of October unemployment data due to the government shutdown adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decision-making process [11]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The average effective tariff rate on imported goods in the U.S. has reached 18.3%, the highest since 1934, indicating extreme levels of trade protectionism [1] - The new tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, will affect 69 trading partners, with 40 countries facing a 15% tariff rate [3] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026, and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Consumer Spending and Price Increases - The tariffs are expected to increase average household spending in the U.S. by $2,400 by 2025, with significant impacts on clothing prices, which may rise by 38% [3] - Short-term price increases for consumer goods are anticipated, with footwear prices potentially increasing by 40% [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Market Reactions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 100,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [4] - Employment data for May and June was revised downwards, with a total downward adjustment of 258,000 jobs [4] - The weak employment report has increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, raising expectations from 40% to 63% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion due to the new tariffs [5] - European stock markets also fell sharply, with major indices dropping nearly 3% in France [5] - Increased market volatility led to a rise in gold prices, with spot gold surging by 2.22% to surpass $3,360 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness in July, with non-farm payroll growth significantly below expectations, leading to increased speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][4]. Employment Data - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is higher than June's 14,000 but below the Dow Jones estimate of 100,000 [3]. - The employment figures for May and June were revised downwards, with June's numbers adjusted down by 147,000 and May's by 125,000, totaling a downward revision of 258,000 jobs over two months [3]. - The healthcare sector was the primary contributor to job growth in July, adding 55,000 jobs, while the federal government saw a decrease of 12,000 jobs [3]. Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%, meeting expectations, while the year-over-year increase of 3.9% slightly exceeded forecasts [4]. Market Reaction - Following the employment report, futures traders increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September from 40% to 63% [4]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.32%, S&P 500 down 1.48%, and Nasdaq down 1.89% [1][2]. Economic Commentary - Experts noted that the employment report indicates a slow but steady cooling of the labor market, with hiring momentum weakening [4]. - The report was described as a "game-changing" employment report, highlighting a rapid deterioration in the labor market [4]. Political Commentary - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates and suggested that the Federal Reserve Board should take control if Powell does not make significant cuts [5][6]. - Trump argued that lowering rates would stimulate economic growth and reduce debt repayment costs for the federal government and homebuyers [5].

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K in June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised May figure of +144K [1][2] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, resulting in a total increase of +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The government sector contributed significantly to job gains in June with +73K, while the private sector saw mixed results, including a loss of -56K in Professional/Business Services [4][5] - Healthcare added +39K jobs and Social Assistance +19K, but traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying any cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market concerns [7][8] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, aligning with expectations and showing improvement from the record low of -$138 billion in March [9]

Core Points - The U.S. labor market remains stable with a non-farm employment increase of 147,000 in June, maintaining an unemployment rate of 4.1% [1][4] - Job growth is concentrated in state government and healthcare sectors, with state government adding 47,000 jobs and healthcare contributing 39,000 jobs [2] - Wage growth is moderate, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% to $36.30, while average weekly hours worked slightly decreased [3] Employment Trends - The state government sector saw significant job additions, particularly in education, which accounted for 40,000 of the new jobs [2] - The federal government continues to reduce its workforce, with a loss of 7,000 jobs in June and a total of 69,000 jobs cut since January [2] - Long-term unemployment is a growing concern, with 1.6 million individuals unemployed for 27 weeks or more, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate remains unchanged at 62.3%, with approximately 6 million individuals willing to work but not actively participating in the labor market [6] - The number of marginally attached workers has increased to 1.8 million, indicating a rise in individuals who are discouraged about job prospects [6] - Revisions to previous employment data show an upward adjustment, with April and May's non-farm employment figures increased by a total of 16,000 jobs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.53 billion USD) aimed at boosting consumer spending to achieve a near 5% economic growth target by Q2 2025, in response to a slowdown in economic growth and various external pressures [1][2]. Economic Context - Indonesia's economy grew by 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2023, marking the lowest growth rate in over three years, influenced by global trade tensions, uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, and weak domestic demand [1]. - The threat of up to 32% tariffs from the U.S. has created significant uncertainty for Indonesian exports, negatively impacting market confidence [1]. - From January to April 2023, foreign capital outflows from the Indonesian stock market reached 50.72 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 3 billion USD), with the bond market experiencing outflows of over 6.11 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 375 million USD) [1]. Stimulus Measures - The stimulus plan includes various measures such as: - 20% discount on toll fees for 110 million drivers and 30% discount on train tickets for 2.8 million passengers [2]. - 50% electricity bill discount for 79.3 million households to alleviate living costs and increase disposable income [2]. - Expansion of social assistance to 18.3 million households, providing additional monthly subsidies and free rice [2]. - Wage subsidies for low-income workers earning below 3.5 million Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 215 USD) [2]. Funding Sources - The funding for the stimulus plan will come from public-private partnerships for toll and unemployment insurance discounts, while the remaining funds will be allocated from the government budget [3]. Market Reactions - Mixed reactions from the market and experts, with some questioning the transfer of costs to the private sector, while others view the plan positively as a means to boost market confidence and address economic slowdown [3]. - Analysts believe that despite the challenges, the government's proactive approach could lead to a rebound in economic growth in Q2 2025 [3]. Long-term Challenges - Long-term sustainable development of the Indonesian economy faces challenges such as global trade dynamics, commodity price fluctuations, and structural domestic issues [4]. - Experts suggest that the government should implement structural reforms alongside short-term stimulus measures to enhance economic competitiveness and resilience [4].