钒电池

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【钒钛股份(000629.SZ)】钒电池装机大增叠加钢铁用钒好转,钒价有望触底回升——动态点评(王招华/方驭涛)
光大证券研究· 2025-03-25 08:53
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth potential of the vanadium flow battery market, driven by increasing project tenders and expected supply agreements, despite current challenges in the vanadium price and steel demand [2][3][5]. Group 1: Project Developments - Multiple vanadium flow battery projects are currently in the bidding phase, including significant projects in Yunnan and Hami, with each project designed for 100MW/400MWh capacity [2]. - The installed capacity of vanadium flow batteries is expected to maintain high growth through 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2024, projected between 260 million to 300 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 71.6% to 75.4% due to poor demand in the steel sector and a substantial drop in vanadium pentoxide prices [3]. - The average price of vanadium pentoxide in China for 2024 is expected to be 80,800 yuan per ton, down 25.9% from 109,000 yuan per ton in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Supply Agreements and Market Trends - The company has signed a framework agreement to supply 20,000 tons of vanadium raw materials to Dalian Rongke for 2025, marking a 35% increase from the 14,822 tons supplied in 2024, reflecting continued demand in the vanadium flow battery sector [4]. - The total installed capacity of vanadium flow batteries is projected to reach approximately 440MW/1,742MWh in 2024, a significant increase of 700% from 2023 [5]. - The steel sector's demand for vanadium is expected to improve due to the transition of national standards for rebar, which may positively influence vanadium prices as inventory levels decrease [5].