证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年03月02日 水电等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0227 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0227最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：水电、代糖、小金属、聚碳酸酯、钛白粉、有机硅、磷化 工、超硬材料、钒电池、半导体材料、半导体设备、MLCC、LNG等。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池。 l 3）底部企稳，新增：信托重仓、医美等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/02/27。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出 ...

证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年02月24日 QFII等主题右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0222 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外 降息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0222最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：QFII，智谱AI。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池，靶材，电力物联网等。 l 3）底部企稳，持续：仿制药，智能物流，电动车，服务机器人，消费金融，白 酒，葡萄酒等。 l 4）底部反转，持续：六氟磷酸锂，锂电电解液，手机电池，白酒，品牌龙头。 录 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 4 华福证券 华福证券 l 1）右侧突破，新增：QFII，智谱AI。 l 2）右侧趋势，持续：光伏，POE胶膜，BC电池，靶材，电力物联网等。 l 3）底部企稳，持续：仿制药，智能物流，电动车，服务机 ...

Investment Themes - The report identifies several investment themes based on market trends, including "right-side breakout" for Huangjiu, soybeans, and epoxy propylene, which are showing sustained performance [4][10] - "Right-side trends" are noted in sectors such as photovoltaics, power IoT, target materials, new energy equipment, and aluminum, indicating ongoing positive momentum [4][10] - New themes showing signs of stabilization at the bottom include generic drugs, service robots, consumer finance, smart logistics, and electric vehicles [4][10] - Newly identified themes indicating a bottom reversal include lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium battery electrolytes, and mobile phone batteries [4][10] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - The Huangjiu index has shown a 5% increase over 20 days, while the soybean index has experienced a 3% increase, indicating potential investment opportunities [11] - The epoxy propylene index has a 12% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong performance in the basic chemical sector [11] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The photovoltaic index has shown a 13% increase year-to-date (YTD), indicating strong growth potential in the power equipment sector [13] - Other indices such as the BC battery index and the power IoT index have also shown positive trends with YTD increases of 17% and 9%, respectively [13] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The CAR-T therapy index and the generic drug index have shown signs of stabilization, with the latter having a 3-day performance of 0% [17] - The electric vehicle index has also stabilized, with a slight increase of 1% over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [17] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The mobile phone battery index has shown a 2% increase over 5 days, while the lithium hexafluorophosphate index has a 3% increase, suggesting a potential turnaround in these sectors [19] - The lithium battery electrolyte index has also shown a 3% increase, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The theme morphology aims to create a tool for thematic investment, identifying thematic opportunities through volume - price data and morphological analysis, and realizing the investability of thematic "indices" [6]. - On January 30, 2026, the latest output of theme morphology shows that new themes in right - side breakthrough include yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc.; themes in continuous right - side trend are photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc.; new themes in bottom stabilization and bottom reversal both include liquor [3][6]. Summary by Related Catalogues Right - side Breakthrough Thematic Opportunities - Newly added themes are yellow rice wine, Hang Seng real estate, soybeans, etc. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD (Year - to - Date)涨幅 of the yellow rice wine index are 4%, 8%, and 7% respectively; those of the Hang Seng real estate and property management index are 7%, 15%, and 12% respectively; those of the soybean index are 13%, 15%, and 15% respectively [3][6][7]. Right - side Trend Thematic Opportunities - Continuously trending themes include photovoltaic, power equipment, display screen, aluminum, etc. For example, the 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the photovoltaic index are - 4%, 16%, and 14% respectively; those of the aluminum industry index are - 1%, 15%, and 12% respectively [3][6][9]. Bottom Stabilization Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom stabilization include express delivery, jewelry, etc. [3][6][13]. Bottom Reversal Thematic Opportunities - Newly added theme is liquor. The 5 - day, 20 - day, and YTD涨幅 of the liquor index are 4%, 3%, and 2% respectively. Other themes in bottom reversal include methanol, ophthalmic medical, etc. [3][6][15].

Core Insights - The report identifies key themes in the market, including "right-side breakout," "right-side trend," "bottom stabilization," and "bottom reversal" as critical indicators for investment opportunities [4][8]. Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - New themes identified include Memory, Perovskite Battery, and Health China, indicating potential growth sectors [4][10]. - The Memory Index shows a 12% fund holding ratio with a 5-day increase of 8% and a year-to-date increase of 12% [10]. - Other notable indices include the Perovskite Battery Index with a 5-day increase of 4% and a year-to-date increase of 15% [12]. Right-Side Trend Opportunities - Newly identified trends include Display Screen, Cobalt Ore, Yangtze Storage, Advanced Packaging, AI Applications, and Robotics [4][14]. - The Display Screen Manufacturing Equipment Index has a fund holding ratio of 6% with a 5-day increase of 6% and a year-to-date increase of 23% [14]. - The Advanced Packaging Index shows a 5% fund holding ratio with a 5-day increase of 13% and a year-to-date increase of 30% [14]. Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - Continuous effective themes include Hang Seng Innovation Drug, Kuaishou Platform, CSI Dividend, Financial Technology, and Hang Seng Automotive [4][20]. - The Health China Index has a fund holding ratio of 4% with a 5-day increase of 3% and a year-to-date increase of 14% [20]. - The Kuaishou Platform Index shows a 5-day increase of 3% and a year-to-date increase of 27% [20]. Bottom Reversal Opportunities - Sustained effective themes include Methanol, Hang Seng Innovation Drug, and Industrial Software [4][20]. - The Methanol Index has shown a significant recovery, indicating potential for further growth [20].

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of right-side trends in various sectors, including online gaming, Kuaishou platform, and GEO, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][10] - It also identifies sectors showing signs of bottoming out, particularly blood products, suggesting a stabilization in these areas [3][16] Thematic Analysis Outputs Right-Side Trends - Newly identified right-side trend sectors include: - Online gaming index with a 5-day increase of 11% and a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 12% [10] - Kuaishou platform index showing a 5-day increase of 20% and a YTD increase of 21% [10] - GEO index with a remarkable 5-day increase of 35% and a YTD increase of 36% [10] Bottoming Out - The blood products index has shown a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 5%, indicating a potential recovery phase [16] - Other sectors showing signs of bottoming out include: - Pig industry index with a 5-day decrease of 1% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] - Express delivery index with a 5-day increase of 0% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] Right-Side Breakthrough Opportunities - Various indices have been identified as right-side breakthroughs, including: - Financial technology index with a 5-day increase of 3% and a YTD increase of 13% [8] - E-SIM card index with a 5-day increase of 8% and a YTD increase of 15% [8] - AIGC index with a 5-day increase of 16% and a YTD increase of 24% [8] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - Indices showing potential for bottom reversal include: - Methanol index with a 5-day increase of 1% and a YTD increase of 4% [20] - Eye medical index with a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 6% [20] - Industrial software index with a 5-day increase of 14% and a YTD increase of 22% [20]

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new investment themes, including AIGC index, photolithography, phosphor chemical industry, vehicle networking, and brain-computer interfaces, indicating a right-side breakout in these sectors [3][4] - It identifies trends in sectors such as intelligent AI, mobile payments, aluminum, and low-altitude economy, suggesting a right-side trend formation [3][4] - The report also notes stabilization at the bottom for industries like pig farming, insurance capital stakes, yellow wine, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating potential recovery [3][4] - Additionally, it points out bottom reversal opportunities in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, methanol, and industrial software, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - New indices showing right-side breakout include cloud office index, big data index, and photolithography index, with respective 5-day gains of 8%, 10%, and 12% [8] - The phosphor chemical index has shown a 4% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential investment opportunity [8] - Other indices such as vehicle networking and brain-computer interface also show promising short-term performance [8] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The report lists indices like intelligent AI and mobile payment with 5-day gains of 11% and 5% respectively, indicating a positive trend [10] - The aluminum industry index has shown a 15% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong momentum [10] - The low-altitude economy index has also demonstrated a 22% increase over 20 days, highlighting its growth potential [10] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The pig farming index has stabilized with a 1% gain over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [14] - The insurance capital stake index has shown a similar trend with a 1% increase, suggesting investor confidence [14] - Other sectors like yellow wine and innovative pharmaceuticals also show signs of stabilization, with respective gains of 1% and 12% [14] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The methanol index has shown a 6% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [18] - The industrial software index has demonstrated a 13% gain, suggesting a strong recovery signal [18] - The innovative pharmaceuticals index has also shown a 12% increase, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [18]

Group 1: Theme Identification and Investment Strategies - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to focus on logical analysis and decision-making[3] - It emphasizes the construction of investable theme indices by mapping stocks and convertible bonds, providing sector classification and institutional holdings as auxiliary indicators[3] - The "right-side breakout" strategy captures signals for theme initiation, focusing on participating in the first wave of market movements, especially in bullish and volatile markets[4] Group 2: Performance Metrics and Backtesting Results - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side breakout strategy shows significant excess returns, particularly in bullish markets, with a holding period success rate of 69.6% and an average return of 5.1% in 2024[24] - The right-side trend strategy is designed to identify long-term upward trends, with a focus on timing exits, showing significant excess returns in both volatile and bullish markets[42] - The bottom stabilization and reversal strategies are aimed at identifying opportunities at low price levels, with backtesting showing a 50.5% success rate and an average return of 0.9% over five days from 2021 to 2024[51] Group 3: Institutional Participation and Risk Factors - As of Q3 2025, indices with a 2-5% fund holding ratio accounted for the highest proportion at 43.4%, with technology theme indices like optical modules having the highest fund holding at 20.4%[56] - The report highlights several risk factors, including historical performance not guaranteeing future results, industry uncertainties, and geopolitical risks[4]

Group 1: Theme Opportunity Identification - The report focuses on identifying theme investment opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to concentrate on logical analysis and decision-making[2] - It aims to create investable theme indices by mapping stocks and convertible bonds, providing sector classification and institutional holdings as auxiliary indicators[2] - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing "bottom stabilization" and "bottom reversal" opportunities, which are distinct from right-side strategies[6] Group 2: Bottom Stabilization and Reversal Signals - Bottom stabilization is characterized by a price low, a "golden needle" pattern, and a breakout confirmation, requiring subsequent price confirmation for validity[15] - Bottom reversal signals are defined by a price low, significant volume increase, and a breakout above moving averages, attracting market attention and additional capital[15] - Historical data shows that bottom stabilization patterns yield significant excess returns, particularly in volatile and declining markets, with a notable win rate in 2021 and 2022[23] Group 3: Institutional Participation and Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, indices with a fund holding ratio of 2-5% account for the highest proportion at 43.4%, with technology theme indices like optical modules having a fund holding ratio of 20.4%[25] - The report highlights the need to assess institutional participation in theme markets through fund holding data, indicating a strong interest in specific sectors[25] Group 4: Investment Implementation and Risk Factors - The report outlines the investment implementation process for theme opportunities, focusing on recent leading stocks and convertible bonds within the theme indices[31] - It includes risk warnings such as historical performance not guaranteeing future results, industry uncertainties, and potential geopolitical risks affecting market stability[37]

Group 1: Theme Investment Strategy - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices[2] - It emphasizes the importance of recognizing "right-side trend" opportunities, which can lead to significant and prolonged price increases[5] - A three-dimensional warning system for market peaks is constructed, focusing on trading heat, BOLL indicators, and major bearish line breaks[19] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side trend pattern shows significant excess returns, particularly in 2023 and 2024, outperforming other strategies[27] - The proportion of indices with a fund holding ratio of 2-5% is the highest at 43.4%, with the highest fund holding ratio in technology theme indices at 20.4%[30] - The average return for the right-side trend signals is notably higher during volatile and upward market conditions, with a win rate improvement observed[24] Group 3: Risk Factors - Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and investors should consider current market conditions and economic trends[42] - Risks include slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainties in global monetary policy[42] - The report warns of industry-specific uncertainties due to rapid technological changes and evolving consumer preferences[42]