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国际经贸变局之下:中欧班列逆势回暖
21世纪经济报道· 2025-06-13 03:42
Core Insights - The international trade market has faced significant challenges this year, leading to changes in China's international logistics network, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative [1][19] - The China-Europe Railway Express has seen a decline in the number of trains and container shipments in the first quarter, but there was a recovery in April with a 9.1% year-on-year growth [1][14] - In contrast, the Central Asia Railway Express has experienced double-digit growth in both train numbers and container shipments, indicating a shift in logistics patterns [2][17] Group 1: China-Europe Railway Express Performance - In the first four months of the year, a total of 6,042 China-Europe Railway Express trains were operated, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with outbound trains down by 18.2% and return trains up by 17.8% [10] - The total number of containers sent was 627,236, reflecting a 7.1% year-on-year decline, with outbound containers down by 22.1% and return containers up by 11.7% [10] - The decline in train operations is attributed to geopolitical factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has affected operational efficiency and diverted some export demand to Central Asia [13][12] Group 2: Central Asia Railway Express Growth - The Central Asia Railway Express has shown remarkable growth, with train numbers increasing by 20.6%, 20.2%, and 34.9% in the first three months of the year, and a 9.4% increase in April [17] - The total container shipments from Central Asia have also surged, with increases of 24.4%, 28.6%, and 40.1% in the first three months, and a 14.6% increase in April [17] - The growth in Central Asia is linked to a shift in logistics routes as companies adapt to changing global trade dynamics [2][19] Group 3: Future Outlook and Developments - The China-Europe Railway Express is expanding its routes, including a new southern corridor that bypasses the Black Sea, and plans to test a full schedule for a route across the Caspian Sea [3][20] - The logistics network is becoming denser, with 128 cities in China connected to the China-Europe Railway Express, reaching 229 cities in 26 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries [20] - Future opportunities may arise from improved cooperation between China and the EU, particularly regarding electric vehicle tariffs, which could increase the volume of goods transported via the China-Europe Railway Express [21]