1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices adjusting within a narrow range [3][5] - The significant losses in the secondary lead sector have led to low operating rates, and the price of waste batteries has been suppressed by negative demand feedback [5] - Consumption is in the off - season, limiting the demand for lead ingots. The high inventory of finished products in battery enterprises and terminal dealers has pressured the downstream operating rate and the procurement of lead ingots [5] - Although the losses of secondary lead smelters have converged, the supply pressure is not sustainable due to the shortage of waste battery supply during the off - season. The downside space for lead prices is limited. In the medium - to - long term, buying at low levels can be considered, and attention should be paid to the potential mid - year sales rush in June and the peak consumption season in the third quarter [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.06%. The closing price of LmeS - lead 3 last week was 1,952.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.59% [6] - **Spread**: The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread decreased by 13.2 dollars/ton from the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread increased by 20 yuan/ton [6] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 16,971 tons, SHFE total inventory decreased by 7,044 tons, social inventory decreased by 5,800 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 45,175 tons [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract increased by 18,978 lots, and the open interest increased by 18,817 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead 3 increased by 3,379 lots, and the open interest decreased by 6,978 lots [6] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, domestic production, and inventory of lead concentrate are presented in historical data charts. The import and domestic processing fees of lead concentrate decreased, and the smelting profit also declined [24][25][6] - **Primary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead are shown in historical data charts, with relatively small marginal changes [26] - **Secondary Lead**: Previously, secondary lead suffered significant losses, with an average loss approaching 800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand and losses, the price of waste batteries decreased, and the losses of secondary lead smelters converged. The operating rate remained at a low level [5][28] - **Waste Battery**: The price of waste batteries decreased significantly due to negative feedback from the secondary lead sector. The supply of waste batteries is expected to be tight again after the sell - off by recyclers [5] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The industry has entered the consumption off - season. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined, and the inventory of finished products in enterprises and terminal dealers is difficult to deplete, which has pressured the procurement of lead ingots [5][32] - **Terminal**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is presented in historical data charts. The actual consumption of lead is also shown in historical data [33][34]

Report Information - Report Title: Lead Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Author: Mo Xiaoxiong from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: April 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Strength Analysis: Neutral [3] Core Views - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices slightly rebounding upward [3]. - Against the backdrop of a sharp decline in lead prices, the supply side shows strong reluctance to sell, and secondary lead has fallen into a loss - making situation. The supply of primary lead is expected to decrease due to maintenance in some regions and smelter warehousing, resulting in a slightly tight spot market. For secondary lead, there is a possibility of production cuts due to losses [5]. - Although the battery enterprise operating rate has recovered after the holiday, the consumer market is expected to weaken in the medium - term. The terminal market has entered the off - season, leading to an increase in battery inventory and a downward trend in the operating rate. The demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken marginally, putting pressure on prices [5]. - In the short term, after the tariff shock, lead prices are expected to converge slightly upward. In the medium - term, lead prices are under pressure in the second quarter, but the downside is limited. There is still restocking support from large battery enterprises, and the cost of waste batteries provides significant support [5]. Summary by Directory Transaction (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 16,825 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.61%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,920 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.56%. LmeS - Lead 3 had a weekly increase of 4.53%. The LME lead premium, bonded area lead premium, and other spreads showed different changes [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,504 tons to 56,132 tons, and the total SHFE lead inventory decreased by 3,150 tons to 62,646 tons. The social inventory decreased by 500 tons to 69,500 tons, while the LME lead inventory increased by 12,175 tons to 247,425 tons [6]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 32,358 lots, a decrease of 20,798 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 34,875 lots, a decrease of 13,040 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 3,770 lots, a decrease of 409 lots, and the open interest was 158,382 lots, an increase of 12,007 lots [6]. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, domestic production, inventory, and operating rate of lead concentrate showed different trends over time. The import TC and domestic TC remained stable, while the import and domestic lead concentrate smelting profits changed [22][23]. - **Primary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rate of primary lead showed different trends in different years. The by - products of primary lead production, such as silver and sulfuric acid, also had corresponding price and production changes [24][25]. - **Secondary Lead**: The production of secondary lead showed different trends over time. The cost of secondary lead was affected by waste battery prices, and the profit of secondary lead significantly shrank, with a possible production cut [4][24][26]. - **Import and Export**: The export volume, net import volume, and import profit and loss of lead showed different trends over time [27]. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume, operating rate, and inventory days of lead - acid batteries showed different trends over time. The operating rate of battery enterprises had a post - holiday recovery, but there was a downward trend in the medium - term [5][30]. - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles, as well as the actual consumption of lead, showed different trends over time [31].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is weak [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is entering a seasonal demand slump, leading to weak price performance [3] - The profit margin of secondary lead has significantly shrunk, and the operating rate of battery manufacturers has declined [4] - The supply side has seen marginal reductions. Primary lead production has both increases and decreases, while secondary lead production is limited by the shrinking supply and high price of scrap batteries [6] - The operating rate of battery manufacturers has declined from its peak, indicating a clear weakening of consumption, especially in the automotive battery sector [6] - The lead market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, combined with a bearish macro - environment due to tariff impacts. However, the downside of lead prices is limited by restocking demand from battery manufacturers and the cost support of scrap batteries [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,100 yuan, down 2.01% week - on - week; the closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 2,049.5 dollars, up 0.47% week - on - week. The LME lead cash - to - three - month spread was - 30.94 dollars, down 7.09 dollars from the previous week [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 1,279 tons to 61,636 tons; SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,166 tons to 65,796 tons; social inventory increased by 800 tons to 70,000 tons; LME lead inventory increased by 4,050 tons to 235,250 tons [7] - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 53,156 lots, an increase of 2,203 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 47,915 lots, a decrease of 3,275 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 6,299 lots, an increase of 2,607 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 146,375 lots, an increase of 4,409 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, domestic production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data, with the import processing fee remaining at - 20 dollars/ton and the domestic production profit increasing by 202 yuan/ton [7][24][25] - **Primary Lead**: Some smelters in Yunnan and Hunan are ramping up production, while those in Jiangxi are reducing output. The weekly operating rate and production volume data of primary lead are provided [6][26] - **Secondary Lead**: The replacement consumption of scrap batteries has weakened, leading to a reduction in supply and relatively high prices. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters has been squeezed, and the production and cost - profit data are shown [6][28] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries are presented. The operating rate has declined from its peak, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has increased [32] - **End - User**: The monthly production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are provided, which are related to the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The actual consumption volume of lead is also shown [34]