铅周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 2025 年 8 月 25 日 消费成色不足 铅价偏弱运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价承压。宏观面看，美国经济数据修 复且市场担忧通胀抬头，叠加美联储官员打压降息预 期，美元企稳反弹，拖累铅价走势。但杰克逊霍尔央 行年会鲍威尔偏鸽讲话修复降息预期，铅价获得提振。 要点 基本面看，铅精矿供应偏紧的格局未有改善，河南、 湖南等地电解铅炼厂原料库存保 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The LME lead inventory has decreased, providing support for lead prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,981 dollars/ton, also down 0.45% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 30,595 lots, a decrease of 2,006 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 49,496 lots, a decrease of 1,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 159,114 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.24 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.37 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 62,225 tons, an increase of 441 tons; LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [1]. - **Scrap Battery and Refined Lead**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -486.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.91 yuan/ton; the SHFE lead continuous third - month import profit and loss was -536.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.92 yuan/ton [1]. News - The US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the highest monthly growth rate in three years, far exceeding the Wall Street expectation of 0.2%, indicating that enterprises are passing on the rising import costs related to tariffs [1]. - Trump told Zelensky that if everything goes well, a tri - lateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be held [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with the lead price expected to maintain a volatile pattern between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton. Although there is regional tight - supply in primary lead due to maintenance, overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the reminder of peak - season demand is not obvious. However, in a generally positive macro - sentiment environment, the lead price may not decline significantly under the influence of the non - ferrous metals sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Analysis Mine End - In the week of July 25, the lead concentrate market remained in a tight supply - demand balance with obvious regional differentiation. In Hunan, the processing fee for silver - lead ore was negative, and actual market transactions were scarce. In contrast, supply was relatively loose in Henan and Inner Mongolia, and most smelters were less willing to adjust the pb50 processing fee. Regarding the silver pricing coefficient, only the coefficient of low - silver ore (200 - 500g/ton) was raised to 0.8, while that of high - silver ore remained unchanged [1] Primary Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the primary lead industry dropped to 63.37%, a week - on - week decline of 2.45 percentage points. Supply in Henan was tight due to delayed resumption of maintenance enterprises and production fluctuations in another smelter. Operations in Hunan and Yunnan were basically stable, with only minor output adjustments in individual small and medium - sized plants. Maintenance was the main factor restricting capacity release [1] Recycled Lead - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the recycled lead industry rebounded to 40.68%, a week - on - week increase of 2.84 percentage points. The resumption of an Anhui smelter drove a 6.6 - percentage - point increase in the regional operating rate, and a large - scale enterprise in Inner Mongolia was about to start production. Production in Henan and Jiangsu remained stable, but the recovery volume of waste batteries still restricted capacity release. With the approaching of the traditional peak consumption season, enterprises' production willingness is gradually increasing, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise slightly next week. Tight waste material supply is the main constraint [2] Consumption - In the week of July 25, the operating rate of the lead - acid battery industry slightly rose to 71.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 percentage points. The market showed structural differentiation: some electric bicycle battery enterprises had an operating rate of up to 90% due to peak - season stocking demand, while automobile battery enterprises' operating rates fluctuated between 70 - 80% under the dual influence of weak domestic consumption and tariff policies, and some enterprises achieved full production by seizing export orders. Overall terminal demand has not improved significantly [2] Inventory - As of July 24, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 7.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons. Affected by continuous maintenance of primary lead and losses in recycled lead, the supply side remained tight. The narrowing price difference between recycled lead and primary lead prompted downstream to turn to primary lead procurement, resulting in a decrease in factory inventory and a slight increase in social inventory [2] Strategy - Given the current situation, the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the price range estimated to be between 16,400 yuan/ton and 17,050 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The loss of secondary lead smelters is being repaired. Some smelters have the intention to resume production. The price is expected to be boosted by the consumption peak - season, but the actual restocking in the real - world is relatively for essential needs. In the medium - term, the price of lead is expected to be strong as the supply - demand contradiction may be significant in the third quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 17,295 yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.99%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,225 yuan, with a decrease of 0.40%. LmeS - Lead3 had a closing price of 1,988.5 dollars last week, with a decrease of 2.60%. The LME lead spot premium (0 - 3) was - 24.63 dollars last Friday, a decrease of 2.49 dollars compared to the previous week. The near - month to continuous - first contract spread was - 55 yuan last Friday, a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 46,439 tons, an increase of 554 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 53,303 tons, an increase of 1,374 tons. The social inventory was 56,900 tons, an increase of 900 tons. The LME lead inventory was 263,275 tons, a decrease of 10,150 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.59%, a decrease of 0.26% [7]. - **Transaction and Position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Lead Main Contract last week was 24,330 lots, a decrease of 16,320 lots compared to the previous week. The position was 51,672 lots, a decrease of 128 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead3 was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 1,901 lots, and the position was 151,720 lots, an increase of 614 lots [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the report. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends over the years. The domestic lead concentrate production also has its own characteristics. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the processing fees (domestic and imported) are also included [24][25]. - **Primary and Secondary Lead**: In the primary lead sector, smelters in Yunnan and other places are under maintenance. In the secondary lead sector, the supply of scrap batteries is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption. The price of scrap batteries has risen, and the secondary lead price has been more significantly boosted, with the loss being repaired. Some smelters are willing to resume production. The production and operating rates of primary lead, secondary lead, and their combined production are also analyzed [6][26]. - **Scrap Batteries**: The price of scrap batteries has increased. The supply is limited due to the off - season of replacement consumption, and recyclers are reluctant to sell their stocks [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: There is an expectation of a consumption peak - season for lead - acid batteries. The operating rate of lead - acid batteries shows different trends over the years. The inventory days of finished products for lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers are also presented [5][6][32]. - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles is used as an indicator to reflect the end - user demand for lead. The actual consumption of lead also shows different trends over the years [34].

Core Industry Overview - Hengyang City is focusing on building a modern industrial system characterized by "one core, two electricity, three colors, and four new" industries, aiming for coordinated development of advanced manufacturing, traditional industry upgrades, and emerging industry cultivation [1][13] - The "one core" focuses on nuclear technology application, establishing a national-level demonstration base for nuclear technology applications [1][13] - The "two electricity" includes electrical equipment and electronic information as pillar industries, aiming to cultivate a trillion-level industrial cluster [1][13] - The "three colors" refer to traditional advantageous industries: non-ferrous metals, salt chemical industry, and steel pipes and deep processing [1][13] - The "four new" focuses on emerging growth points such as new energy vehicles, modern logistics, cultural tourism and health, and ecological agriculture [1][13] Economic Performance - In 2024, Hengyang's GDP is projected to reach 449.169 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, indicating a steady economic expansion [4] - The secondary industry shows the strongest growth, with an added value of 142.336 billion and a growth rate of 6.9% [4] - The tertiary industry maintains steady growth, achieving an added value of 258.077 billion, growing by 5.1% [4] - The first industry added value is 48.756 billion, with a growth of 2.7%, demonstrating a collaborative development among the three major industries [4] New Quality Productive Forces - New Quality Productive Forces, introduced by President Xi Jinping, emphasize innovation as the main driving force, characterized by high technology, efficiency, and quality [2][3] - This concept is crucial for promoting high-quality economic development and constructing a modern industrial system [3] Policy Framework - Hengyang has implemented various policies to support the cultivation of new quality productive forces, including plans for health industry development and optimizing the business environment [10][11] - The "Stabilize Five and Advance Three" strategy aims to consolidate five advantageous industries while breaking through three emerging industries to inject new momentum into high-quality development [10][13] Industrial Space Layout - Hengyang adopts a "no zoning layout, integrated promotion" planning concept, creating a spatial structure of "one river, four screens, one circle, and one belt" [15][18] - The layout focuses on ecological protection and urban development, enhancing the integration of modern service and advanced manufacturing industries [15][18] Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as electronic information, new energy vehicles, and nuclear technology applications are rapidly rising, contributing to the economic growth of Hengyang [20] - Companies like Hunan Kai Ming Electronic Technology and Hunan Tian Yan Machinery are becoming new forces in their respective industries through technological innovation [20] Development Trends - Hengyang is advancing traditional industries towards high-end and intelligent transformation while vigorously cultivating emerging industries, forming a dual-driven model [23][24] - The city is enhancing its innovation capabilities through increased R&D investment and the establishment of innovation platforms [25] - Hengyang is deepening open cooperation and policy support to ensure the development of new quality productive forces, aiming for broader growth prospects [26]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Zinc: The Shanghai zinc futures continue to rebound. - Lead: Supported by the cost of recycled lead and with signs of demand recovery, the lead price is clearly supported. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 17,500 [61]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Multi - Empty Focus 3.1.1. Zinc - Bullish factors: The US index is expected to decline, and there are disturbances in the supply side overseas. - Bearish factors: Zinc ingot inventory has a slight increase [7]. 3.1.2. Lead - Bullish factors: There is a regional shortage in the supply of recycled lead, the price of waste batteries has increased, and social inventory has decreased. - Bearish factors: Consumption has not significantly recovered [10]. 3.2. Data Analysis 3.2.1. Zinc - **Import of zinc ore concentrates**: In May 2025, China's import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. The supply from major countries decreased, but other countries increased their supply, resulting in the May import volume being basically the same as that of the previous month. Recently, the import zinc ore processing fee has been rebounding, and there is an expectation of a marginal loosening of the ore supply [12]. - **Processing fees**: In June, the average domestic zinc concentrate TC increased by 150 yuan/metal ton month - on - month to 3,650 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported ore TC increased by 10 dollars/dry ton month - on - month to 55 dollars/dry ton. The short - term weekly processing fees were relatively stable. The CZSPT released the guidance price range for the US dollar processing fee for imported zinc concentrates before the end of the third quarter of 2025: 80 dollars (average) - 100 dollars (average)/dry ton [15]. - **Zinc concentrate prices**: The price of 50% zinc concentrate in Hechi increased by 210 yuan/ton to 17,060 yuan/ton compared with last week; the price of 50% zinc concentrate in Chenzhou increased by 240 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton [20]. - **Zinc production**: In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In June, there were both new capacity releases and production resumptions, as well as some production cuts due to maintenance [23]. - **Refined zinc import**: In May 2025, China's refined zinc import volume was 26,716.511 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. Kazakhstan was the largest supplier, and Australia was the second - largest supplier [26]. - **Automobile market**: In May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 35% and 36.9% respectively. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 48.7% of the total vehicle sales, reaching a new high. In May, China's total vehicle exports were 551,000, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [30]. - **Zinc inventory**: The LME zinc inventory has been continuously declining since reaching a three - month high on April 17, and the latest inventory level is 119,850 tons, a two - month low. The SHFE zinc inventory increased in the week of June 20, with a weekly decrease of 1.79% [33]. 3.2.2. Lead - **Lead futures and cash**: This week, the lead futures and cash prices continued to rise, the basis was 135 yuan/ton, and the premium range expanded. The price difference between 1 lead and recycled refined lead was 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the refined - scrap price difference was strengthening [37]. - **Lead concentrate prices and processing fees**: The weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Kunming fluctuated by 50 yuan/ton; the weekly price of 60% lead concentrate in Baoji decreased by 42 yuan/ton. As of June 20, the lead concentrate processing fee in Jiyuan was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Chenzhou was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared with last week; the lead concentrate processing fee in Gejiu was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [41]. - **Lead production**: In May 2025, China's lead production was 649,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. In June, more electrolytic lead smelting enterprises were under maintenance, while some recycled lead smelters were expected to resume production and some planned to increase production [45]. - **Lead industry operating rates**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased to 70.79% month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 32.1% month - on - month. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises increased by 11.8 percentage points to 72.19% month - on - month [48][50][54]. - **Lead inventory**: As of June 26, the LME lead inventory decreased, with the latest level at 273,250 tons. The SHFE lead inventory increased by 1.24% to 51,929 tons in the week of June 20. As of June 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 56,000 tons, the same as on June 19 and an increase of more than 300 tons compared with June 23 [58].

Group 1: Steel and Coal Industry - Hebei Steel Group's silicon manganese production in June is 11,700 tons, slightly up from 11,600 tons in May [1] - Rebar production decreased to 2.0757 million tons, down by 108,900 tons or 4.98% from the previous week, with inventory levels also declining for the third consecutive week [1] - Average profit per ton of coke across 30 independent coking plants in China is -46 yuan, with regional variations in profitability [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - China's cotton import forecast for the 2024/2025 season has been revised down to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month due to U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for June 8-14 is 3.5645 million tons, down from 4.4739 million tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports increased significantly [2] - The USDA reports that U.S. soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 4.34 billion bushels, with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.6863 million tons, increasing by 59,300 tons or 3.64% week-on-week [3] - The theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method soda ash has decreased by 29.20 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Lead Industry - A major recycled lead smelter in North China has temporarily halted production due to raw material shortages, with plans to increase procurement prices [3] - A primary lead smelting company in East China has postponed its scheduled maintenance from June to August due to satisfactory equipment performance [3]

Industry Overview - The capacity of China's recycled lead industry has been steadily increasing, driven by stricter environmental policies, technological advancements, and rising market demand [2][4] - As restrictions on primary lead production tighten, recycled lead is gaining more attention as an environmentally friendly alternative, prompting companies to invest in recycled lead projects and technological upgrades [2] - By 2023, China's recycled lead capacity has exceeded 8 million tons, becoming a major source of lead supply [2] Production Growth - The production of recycled lead in China has shown significant growth in recent years, largely due to the push from environmental policies and improved recycling efficiency [4] - The production efficiency and recovery rates of recycled lead have continuously improved, leading to an increase in output [4] - In the first four months of 2024, the production of recycled lead in China was approximately 128.29 thousand tons [4] Market Dynamics - The recycled lead industry is gradually moving towards a park-based development model, with many large enterprises establishing recycled lead industrial parks and integrating downstream lead-acid battery companies [6] - The market is characterized by intense competition and high concentration, with the top four recycled lead companies holding about 31.2% of the market share, indicating a low degree of oligopolistic market structure [6] Company Spotlight - Yuguang Gold Lead is one of China's leading recycled lead producers, focusing on recycling waste lead-acid batteries and other lead-containing waste [8] - The company has advanced smelting technology and strict environmental management measures, enabling efficient recovery of lead resources while minimizing pollution emissions [8] - In 2023, Yuguang Gold Lead's revenue from lead products reached 7.789 billion yuan [8] Research Methodology - The research team from Huajing Industry Research Institute employs a combination of desktop research, quantitative surveys, and qualitative analysis to comprehensively analyze the overall market capacity, industry chain, operational characteristics, profitability, and business models of the recycled lead industry [10] - Various analytical models such as SCP, SWOT, PEST, regression analysis, and SPACE matrix are utilized to assess the market environment, industry policies, competitive landscape, technological innovations, market risks, industry barriers, opportunities, and challenges [10]

Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the hedging position limits for various products, including an increase in the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 products, including PTA [1] - Reports indicated that Mongolia's coal resource tax might be raised to 20%, but the Mongolian Tax Authority confirmed that no official decision regarding changes to coal resource taxes or export taxes has been made [1] - In Tangshan, some steel mills plan to reduce the prices of various types of coke by 50 to 75 yuan per ton, effective from June 6, 2025 [1] - National building materials inventory decreased by 2.63% to 5.5047 million tons, while factory inventory fell by 0.92% to 3.2615 million tons, and production dropped by 0.90% to 4.2193 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, down from 13.83 million tons in the same month last year, and lower than May's 14.20 million tons [2] - A foreign media survey predicts that U.S. net soybean export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year will range between 100,000 to 500,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, it will be between 0 to 100,000 tons [2] - A Reuters survey forecasts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 will be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April, with production expected to rise by 3% to 1.74 million tons and exports by 17.9% to 1.30 million tons [2] - A commodity research institution reported that Indonesia's palm oil production for the 2024/2025 fiscal year is expected to be 48.8 million tons, while Malaysia's is projected at 19 million tons, both remaining unchanged from previous estimates [2] Group 3 - A large lead recycling plant in East China has resumed production, but output remains unstable due to ongoing environmental inspections [3] - A zinc smelting plant in South China is undergoing maintenance for 10 to 15 days, which is expected to impact around 2,000 tons of production [3]