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激活服务贸易发展动能,欧美制造业景气回落
Southwest Securities· 2025-09-26 09:33
Domestic Developments - The steel industry has set a target for an average annual growth of around 4% in value added for 2025-2026, as outlined in the "Steel Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan" issued on September 22[6] - The financial sector has achieved significant growth, with total assets of the banking industry reaching approximately 470 trillion yuan, ranking first globally, and the stock and bond markets ranking second[9] - The service trade policy aims to enhance quality and expand capacity, focusing on five key areas including capital utilization and international market expansion, with service exports growing by 15.3% year-on-year from January to July 2025[14] International Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a new fee of $100,000 for H-1B visa applications, which may hinder the recruitment of tech talent[15] - The Eurozone's composite PMI rose to 51.2 in September, the highest in 16 months, indicating economic expansion, although concerns about growth sustainability remain due to weak new orders[17] - Freeport-McMoRan announced a supply contract entered into "force majeure" status due to a significant landslide at its Grasberg mine, which may reduce copper production by approximately 35% in 2026[21] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.57% week-on-week, while iron ore and cathode copper prices rose by 0.48% and 0.12%, respectively[23] - Rebar prices increased by 0.32%, cement prices rose by 1.85%, and thermal coal prices went up by 1.69% week-on-week[28] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 19.73% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 21.50% increase[38]
2票反对利率维持不变 投资者周三抛售美债
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 00:01
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fifth time, keeping the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% since December of the previous year [3] - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' expectations of 2.3%, indicating a recovery from a contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter [4] - The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 8 basis points to 3.94%, while the 10-year yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.324%, reflecting investor reactions to the Fed's decision [1][3] Group 2 - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had a 9-2 vote against lowering interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two members opposed the majority opinion [3] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of maintaining long-term inflation expectations and indicated that no decision has been made regarding the September meeting [3] - The cautious stance of Powell led to a decrease in market expectations for a rate cut in September, which was viewed as a victory for the Fed [3] Group 3 - President Trump announced a comprehensive trade agreement with South Korea, setting export tariffs at 15%, which caused a significant drop in copper prices and affected mining companies [4] - The impact of tariffs on the economy is complex, as businesses and consumers rushed to purchase imports before new taxes were implemented, disrupting normal consumption patterns [4] - Santander's chief U.S. economist noted that the effects of tariffs on the economy take longer to materialize than expected [4] Group 4 - In the European bond market, government bond yields showed slight fluctuations, with the 10-year German bond yield rising by 0.2 basis points to 2.708% [5] - In the Asia-Pacific market, Japanese bond yields also increased slightly, with the 2-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 0.829% [7] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $180 billion in bonds, including $95 billion in 4-week and $85 billion in 8-week short-term bonds [7]