近日，商务部研究院国际服务贸易研究所"入境旅游"课题组发布报告显示，2025年中国入境旅游市 场全面刷新历史纪录——全年外国游客出入境达8203.5万人次，同比增长26.4%；旅行服务出口规模升 至551.6亿美元，同比大幅增长49.1%，是2019年的1.6倍。 报告指出，当前中国入境旅游收入占GDP比重不足0.5%，而泰国超过10%、欧美国家普遍在1%至 3%之间。若中国能将这一比重提升至国际可比水平，意味着约一至三万亿元人民币的潜在市场增量待 释放。 入境旅游已成为中国缩小服务贸易逆差、优化贸易结构的重要渠道。2025年，我国旅行服务出口额 达551.6亿美元，创历史新高，同比大幅增长49.1%，是2019年的1.6倍，增速远高于同期我国服务出口 整体13.9%的水平。 2025年中国旅行服务进口稳居全球第一，进口额达2537.8亿美元，占全球比重15.2%。进口的强劲 增长，直接带动服务贸易逆差显著收窄——2025年，我国旅行服务贸易逆差额为1986.2亿美元，同比下 降7.2%，推动我国服务贸易逆差额从2024年的1646.6亿美元收窄至2025年的1160.2亿美元。 免签政策红利效应显著，客源结 ...

另一方面，香港因外发加工而输入庞大的制造服务，2024年的逆差达893亿港元，其后是旅游(475亿港 元)及知识产权使用费(72亿港元)。 智通财经APP获悉，2月13日，香港特区政府统计处发布2024年按详细的服务组成部分及主要目的地/来 源地划分的香港服务贸易统计数字。2024年与2023年比较，服务输出总额上升9.9%至8,355亿港元，而 服务输入总额亦上升12.9%至6,981亿港元。2024年无形贸易盈余总额为1,374亿港元，相等于2024年服 务输入总额的19.7%，较2023年录得的1,416亿港元无形贸易盈余总额(相等于2023年服务输入总额的 22.9%)为少。 按服务组成部分的分析 按服务组成部分分析，运输是服务输出中的最大组成部分，占2024年服务输出总额的32.0%，其后是金 融服务(25.9%)及旅游(21.0%)。 在服务输入方面，旅游占2024年服务输入总额的31.9%，其后是运输(22.1%)及其他商业服务(15.1%)。 在各服务组成部分中，2024年金融服务的输出净额为1,458亿港元，占整体无形贸易盈余中最重要的部 分，其后是运输(1,126亿港元)及其他商业服务(1 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [1]. Group 1: Service Trade Overview - The export value of services is projected to reach 36,267.9 billion yuan, growing by 14.2%, while imports are expected to be 44,555.1 billion yuan, with a growth of 2.5% [1]. - The service trade deficit is anticipated to be 8,287.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,439.5 billion yuan compared to the previous year [1]. Group 2: Knowledge-Intensive Services - Knowledge-intensive service trade is expected to maintain growth, with a total import and export value of 30,879.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6% [1]. - Key segments such as other business services and telecommunications, computer, and information services are projected to have import and export values of 13,332.9 billion yuan and 11,038.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5.5% and 10.4% respectively [1]. - The export of knowledge-intensive services is forecasted to be 18,321.2 billion yuan, growing by 10.5%, while imports are expected to be 12,558.3 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.3% [1]. - The surplus in knowledge-intensive services is projected to expand to 5,762.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1,581.7 billion yuan from the previous year [1]. Group 3: Travel Services - Travel services are expected to see significant growth, with total import and export values reaching 22,067 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [1]. - The export of travel services is projected to grow by 49.5%, while imports are expected to increase by 1.4% [1]. Group 4: Trade with APEC Economies - In 2025, the total import and export value between China and other APEC economies is expected to reach 26.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.82% of the total foreign trade value [7]. - High-tech product exports are projected to be 4.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, while imports in key sectors such as energy, agricultural products, semiconductor equipment, and precision instruments are also expected to grow rapidly [7]. - New business models and cross-border e-commerce are anticipated to flourish, with digital trade and green trade becoming new highlights of foreign trade growth [7].

今日摘要 习近平总书记高度重视冰雪运动和冰雪经济发展，强调要"推动冰雪运动、冰雪文化、冰雪装备、冰雪 旅游全产业链发展"。近年来，我国冰雪运动实现跨越式发展，冰雪经济快速增长，"冷资源"成为激发 冬日消费活力的"热引擎"。 李强主持召开国务院第十次全体会议 讨论政府工作报告稿和"十五五"规划纲要草案稿 国务院总理李强2月6日主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政 府工作报告稿和"十五五"规划纲要草案稿。 李强主持召开国务院常务会议 李强主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论政府工作报告稿和"十五五"规划纲要草案稿。 王沪宁主持召开全国政协主席会议。 蔡奇看望文化界知名人士和科技专家，代表习近平总书记和党中央向文化工作者和科技工作者致以诚挚 问候和新春祝福。 2025年，我国服务进出口总额同比增长7.4%，服务贸易结构持续优化。 伊朗称，已做好充分准备捍卫国家主权。美国称，拥有包括外交在内的诸多选项。 内容速览 【新思想引领新征程】冰雪"冷资源" 活力"热引擎" 习近平总书记高度重视冰雪运动和冰雪经济发展，强调要"推动冰雪运动、冰雪文化、冰雪装备、冰雪 旅游全产业链发展"。四年前，北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing a mixed performance with a generally loose liquidity environment, a recovery in the bond market, and a decline in convertible bond indices and individual securities [1][9]. Group 1: Domestic News - The State Administration for Market Regulation is advancing the construction of a unified national market to enhance the vitality of various business entities and promote high-quality economic development [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce reported that by 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with a total import and export value of 80,823.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3]. - A new policy has been implemented in Hainan Free Trade Port, allowing residents to purchase imported goods with a zero tariff policy, with an annual exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person [4]. Group 2: International News - The U.S. JOLTS job openings fell to 6.542 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020, indicating a weakening demand for labor in an uneven job market [5]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its deposit rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for structural reforms amid geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in the external environment [6]. Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil futures prices fell, with WTI crude down by $1.85 to $63.29 per barrel, while natural gas prices continued to rise [7]. Group 4: Financial Market Operations - On February 5, the central bank conducted a 1,185 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 645 billion yuan for the day [8]. - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the DR001 and DR007 rates declining to 1.319% and 1.482%, respectively [9]. Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond falling by 0.50 basis points to 1.8080% [11]. - In the secondary market, two industrial bonds experienced significant price deviations, with "H1碧地03" rising over 20% and "H0中骏02" increasing by over 264% [13]. - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices down by 0.84% to 0.95%, and a total trading volume of 740.66 billion yuan [17]. Group 6: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly, with the 2-year yield down 10 basis points to 3.47% and the 10-year yield down 8 basis points to 4.21% [20]. - In the European bond market, most major economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down 2 basis points to 2.84% [21].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.64% to 4,075.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 1.44% to 13,592.71 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.55% to 3,260.28 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.19 trillion yuan [6][11] - In the Asia-Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.14% to 26,885.24 points, while the Nikkei 225 Index fell by 0.88% to 53,818.04 points. The KOSPI Index in South Korea decreased by 3.86% to 5,163.57 points [11] - European markets saw declines, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.9% to 10,309.22 points, the DAX 30 down by 0.93% to 24,373.06 points, and the CAC 40 down by 0.29% to 8,238.17 points [11] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.2% to 48,908.72 points, the Nasdaq dropped by 1.59% to 22,540.59 points, and the S&P 500 decreased by 1.23% to 6,798.4 points [11] International News - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Amir-Abdollahian, arrived in Oman to attend nuclear negotiations with the US delegation, focusing solely on nuclear issues [10] - The European Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate, marking the fifth consecutive pause since June of the previous year, without signaling future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, with four out of nine monetary policy committee members voting for a 25 basis point cut, indicating a dovish stance [10] Domestic News - The 2026 National Service Consumption and Trade Work Conference emphasized the shift from goods consumption to service consumption, aiming to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and support service exports [12] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade import and export total reached 80,823.1 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a notable growth in travel services [12] - A joint initiative by the National Internet Information Office and eleven other departments introduced 14 measures to enhance digital service convenience for foreign personnel entering China [12] - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration issued a notice on zero tariffs for imported goods consumed by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port [12] Important Announcements - Nanmin Group plans to invest 30 million USD to acquire a 10% stake in Eagle Valley Gold [13] - Huisheng Biotechnology is investing 1 billion yuan to establish a synthetic biology manufacturing project in Xinjiang [13] - TBEA's subsidiary won a coal exploration right for 2.705 billion yuan [13]

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（25）期 发布日期：2026-02-06 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | | --- | | 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/2/5 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,161.00 | 1,172.00 | -11.0 | -0.939 | | | 焦炭 | 1,733.00 | 1,738.00 | -5.0 | -0.288 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,200.00 | 16,175.00 | 25.0 | 0.155 | | | 20号胶 | 13,165.00 | 13,135.00 | 30.0 | 0.228 | | | 塑料 | 6,758.00 | 6.777.00 | -19.0 | -0.280 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,649.00 | 6,676.0 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government has announced 2026 as the "Year of China-Laos Friendship" and will initiate a series of celebratory activities [1] - In 2025, China's service trade is expected to grow steadily, with total service import and export amounting to 80,823.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported that in 2025, 21 key technological bottlenecks in the industrial chain will be broken, and 71 quality technology gaps will be filled, with 4,929 national standards published, a year-on-year increase of 56% [2] Group 2 - On the fourth day of the Spring Festival travel rush, the expected cross-regional population flow is 1,964 million, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [3] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index for January is 51.2%, indicating continued expansion in logistics business [3] - The January commodity price index reached 125.3 points, a month-on-month increase of 6.3%, marking the highest level since July 2022 [4] Group 3 - In 2025, China's gold production is projected to be 381.339 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.09%, while gold consumption is expected to decline by 3.57% to 950.096 tons [4] - The China Machinery Industry Federation forecasts that the value added of large-scale enterprises in the machinery industry will grow by 8.2% year-on-year in 2025, outpacing national industrial and manufacturing growth rates by 2.3 and 1.8 percentage points respectively [4] - The World Health Organization has launched a global emergency fundraising appeal for 2026, aiming to raise approximately $1 billion to address 36 global health emergencies [4] Group 4 - The European Parliament has decided to resume legislative work on the approval of the US-EU trade agreement proposals [5] - According to the latest data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, the labor population aged 55 to 64 in Germany accounts for 24%, significantly higher than the EU average of 20.1%, making Germany the oldest labor population in the EU [5] Group 5 - Following the merger of SpaceX and xAI, Elon Musk's personal wealth has surpassed $800 billion, marking the fourth time in four months that he has set a new personal wealth record [6] - The Ministry of Finance and other departments have announced a "zero tariff" policy for imported goods consumed by residents in Hainan Free Trade Port, with a tax exemption limit of 10,000 yuan per person per year, with no limit on purchase frequency [6] - In 2025, 76 innovative medical devices are expected to be approved for market, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% [6] Group 6 - By December 2025, the number of internet users in China is expected to reach 1.125 billion, with the internet penetration rate exceeding 80% [7]

商务部服贸司负责人介绍，2025年服务贸易的主要特点是：知识密集型服务贸易保持增长。2025年，知 识密集型服务进出口30879.5亿元，增长6.6%。其中，其他商业服务、电信计算机和信息服务进出口 13332.9亿元、11038.1亿元，增速分别为5.5%、10.4%。知识密集型服务出口18321.2亿元，增长10.5%； 知识密集型服务进口12558.3亿元，增长1.3%；顺差5762.9亿元，比上年扩大1581.7亿元。旅行服务出口 高速增长。2025年，旅行服务增长较快，进出口达22067亿元，增长7.6%。其中，出口增长49.5%，进 口增长1.4%。 本报北京2月5日电（记者张翼）商务部5日发布的数据显示，2025年，我国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进 出口总额80823.1亿元，同比增长7.4%。其中，出口36267.9亿元，增长14.2%；进口44555.1亿元，增长 2.5%；服务贸易逆差8287.2亿元，比上年减少3439.5亿元。 ...

知识密集型服务贸易保持增长。2025年，知识密集型服务进出口30879.5亿元，增长6.6%。其中，其他 商业服务、电信计算机和信息服务进出口13332.9亿元、11038.1亿元，增速分别为5.5%、10.4%。知识 密集型服务出口18321.2亿元，增长10.5%；知识密集型服务进口12558.3亿元，增长1.3%；顺差5762.9亿 元，比上年扩大1581.7亿元。 旅行服务出口高速增长。2025年，旅行服务增长较快，进出口达22067亿元，增长7.6%。其中，出口增 长49.5%，进口增长1.4%。 商务部5日发布的数据显示，2025年，我国服务贸易稳步增长，服务进出口总额80823.1亿元，同比增长 7.4%。其中，出口36267.9亿元，增长14.2%；进口44555.1亿元，增长2.5%；服务贸易逆差8287.2亿元， 比上年减少3439.5亿元。 ● 本报记者王舒嫄 商务部2月5日消息，2月4日至5日，2026年全国服务消费和服务贸易工作会议在京召开。会议强调，当 前消费结构加快从商品消费主导向服务消费主导转变，服务贸易也在万亿美元基础上迈上新台阶，要以 高水平开放为引领，坚持"政策+活动"双 ...