Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by the U.S. government regarding the imposition of a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductor products, highlighting the ongoing legal challenges and the broader implications for global trade [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - On January 14, 2026, the U.S. White House announced a 25% import tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting January 15 [1]. - Previously, on August 6, 2025, President Trump indicated that tariffs of approximately 100% would be imposed on chips and semiconductors, with no fees for products manufactured in the U.S. [1][2]. Group 2: Legal Challenges - The U.S. Supreme Court did not make a ruling on the legality of Trump's tariff policy on January 14, 2026, leaving the case unresolved [3]. - The Supreme Court had previously held hearings regarding the legality of the tariff policy, with many justices expressing skepticism about the government's reliance on declaring a "national emergency" to impose comprehensive tariffs [4]. Group 3: Global Trade Impact - According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), nearly 20% of global imports are affected by tariffs and similar measures, a significant increase from 12.6% a year prior [5][6]. - The WTO's Director-General highlighted that the global trading system is experiencing its most severe turmoil in 80 years, driven by increased unilateral tariffs and geopolitical tensions [6].

1.降息25个基点还是50个基点？根据芝商所的美联储观察工具显示，美联储今晚降息25个基点的可能性约为96.0%，降息50个基点的可能性为4%。所以25个 基点只预期之内，50个基点是超预期。 2.年内究竟会降息几次？除了利率变化外，市场的焦点无疑在于，美联储点阵图预测中，对年内两次的降息预测是否能变为三次，这将与最新利率市场的定 价更为贴合。换言之，若点阵图对年内降息的预期次数靠拢于三次，则此次决议可能会将被业内解读为鸽派；而若维持在两次，则只能算得上是一次鹰派降 息，美银预测点阵图将显示年内降息两次。 对于A股来说，如果两项中有超预期的表现，有望支撑指数冲击3900点关口。 从今天市场来看，指数虽然全线翻红，但赚钱效应其实没有昨天强，主要还是权重的带动，今天宁德继续大涨7%，创业板剔除宁德基本也是没咋涨，主板 的大金融上午收盘前带着指数拉了一波，但是量能没有配合放大，下午回落，指数在3900点下方已经震荡了18个交易日，本周应该要变盘了，毕竟924快一 周年了，去年的牛市的起点，很多人憧憬大金融再来一波是有些道理的。 今天指数的反弹虽然突破了20均线的压力，早盘有一定加仓机会，但整体盘中的反弹力度并不强， ...