在接受媒体采访时，巴尔重申，美联储的所有决策均基于经济情况本身，依照国会赋予的职责行事，即维护物价稳定与实现充分就业。他强调，这是美联储 一贯的工作重心，未来也将持续专注于此。 美国联邦储备委员会理事迈克尔·巴尔近日公开表示，美国司法部对美联储进行的刑事调查，以及白宫方面对另一位理事莉萨·库克提出的指控，在他看来， 都形成了对美联储独立运作能力的挑战。 巴尔认为，目前利率已处于所谓"中性"区间，即不再明显刺激或抑制经济增长。若进一步降息，则意味着货币政策将转向更为宽松的方向。因此，他对是否 继续降息持审慎观望态度，表示将依据后续经济数据进行评估。 他特别提到，此前美国政府停摆所带来的数据干扰可能持续至今年春季，因此在分析经济指标时需要保持谨慎，并对相关统计偏差进行适当调整。 接下来几周内，美国政府将提名新任美联储主席。外界普遍预期，被提名人可能会更倾向于推行降息政策。在这一背景下，近期围绕美联储的一系列事件， 引发了关于其未来能否保持独立决策的讨论。 对于这一担忧，巴尔表示，联邦公开市场委员会的运作机制本身具备制衡作用，任何新任主席都需要在委员会内部建立信任，并基于可靠的数据和合理的预 测来推动政策调整。因此 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating uncertainty in the labor market, which complicates their decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3][4] - There is a cautious tone from the Fed, as they lack real-time data on jobs and economic indicators, leading to a reliance on interpretation rather than concrete data [4][6] - The market seems to be absorbing the impact of tariffs as temporary and muted, with inflation remaining above the Fed's target but not showing significant upward pressure [8][9][10] Interest Rate Outlook - The Fed is preserving optionality in their approach to interest rates, indicating a division within the committee on future rate paths [2][4] - There is a suggestion that the labor market's weakness may be prolonged rather than a short-term blip, which could influence future rate cuts [4][5] - The Fed is cautious about making decisions based on sentiment rather than data, highlighting the importance of upcoming labor market data [6][10] Inflation and Market Response - Long-term Treasury yields are not reflecting heightened inflation concerns, suggesting that the market is comfortable with the current inflation levels [7][10] - Inflation has not shown a significant decline, remaining flat due to tariffs, but there is an expectation that it will eventually decrease as tariffs are absorbed [9][10] - The Fed is wary of incorporating assumptions into their policy decisions without clearer labor market data, which could lead to unexpected outcomes [10]

美联储理事沃勒：美联储正积极以安全的方式探索人工智能技术。 ...