Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The current tin market is in a tight balance but has an expected marginal loosening. The significant increase in domestic imported tin concentrates in December and expected growth in January and February have significantly alleviated the shortage of raw material supply. Traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and tinplate have weak consumption, while emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and AI servers provide long - term demand support for tin prices, and the downstream operating rate remains stable. In February, as Burmese tin mines gradually increase production, the tin supply - demand situation will improve, which may put pressure on the upward movement of tin prices [1][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - In December 2025, China imported 17,637 tons of tin concentrates in physical quantity, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from Africa decreased by 11.1%, while those from Myanmar increased by 14.3%, from Australia by 91.5%, and from South America by 118.5% [3] - In January, the domestic refined tin output was basically in line with the previous month's expectation. The smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed a high - level stable operation. The smelting plants in Yunnan maintained a high operating rate of 88% this week, but there was limited room for further improvement due to the tight raw material supply. Jiangxi was affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output [3] - In February 2026, most sample enterprises will maintain stable operation with little output change. With a slight increase in Burmese tin ore imports, the domestic refined tin output is expected to increase slightly [3] Demand Side - The semiconductor industry remains prosperous, and the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises has remained stable. In December, the operating rate of sample enterprises was basically the same as that in November [5] - In South China, tin solder manufacturers are more resilient, and their operating levels are generally stable because the local industrial chain is more deeply involved in emerging application fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers, with sufficient orders. In addition, there are many flexible enterprises in South China that can better hedge market fluctuations. In East China, the operating situation of tin solder enterprises is more obviously under pressure because the customer structure is more inclined to traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors, and the order recovery in November was slow [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a historical record, exacerbating concerns about short-term liquidity in the financial system, which has significantly suppressed market risk appetite [1] - Domestic refined tin production in October has shown a notable month-on-month recovery, primarily driven by the resumption of production from smelting companies after routine maintenance [1] - Despite the recovery in production, the overall supply remains tight due to ongoing constraints in upstream tin ore supply, particularly in Yunnan, where processing fees for 40% grade tin concentrate remain low [1] Group 2 - The downstream demand is weak, with major consumption areas in East and South China experiencing a general decline in new orders from downstream enterprises compared to the same period last year, indicating sluggish end-user consumption [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while terminal market demand is weakening, supply-side pressure is not significant, leading to a mixed fundamental outlook for tin prices [2] - The current market conditions suggest limited upward or downward momentum for tin prices, with potential for price correction under cooling macroeconomic sentiment [2]