有色金属周报——镍与不锈钢 修复后震荡运行 2025年12月9日 研究所 吴金恒 从业资格号：F03100418 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021125 TEL：010-8229 3229 ⚫ 策略:观望 ⚫ 运行区间：110000-125000 ⚫ 逻辑：供给端，镍矿价格持平，上周到港量下降，港口去库； 国内铁厂亏损幅度收窄，国内铁厂排产下降，印尼铁厂排产 下降，镍铁去库；国内精炼镍排产下降，进口亏损扩大。需 求端，三元材料排产下降，前驱体排产下降；不锈钢厂排产 下降；合金电镀需求稳定。库存端，上周纯镍社会库存增加， 保税区库存持平。综上，基本面偏松，库存压力大，但估值 处于低位，降息预期反复，价格修复后，预计镍价区间震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：美联储降息预期变化、需求改善超预期、印尼与菲律宾供应端扰动 不锈钢 ⚫ 策略:等待高空机会 ⚫ 运行区间：11800-12800 ⚫ 逻辑：基本面来看，不锈钢厂排产下降，终端需求较弱。 成本端企稳，镍生铁价格上涨，高碳铬铁价格持平。库存 方面，总库存去库，300系去库。综上，成本端企稳，但 基本面仍弱，预计不锈钢低位震荡。 ⚫ 风险提示：下游需求超预期、宏观情绪快速变化 1 ...

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - December 2, 2025 [3] 1. Nickel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Wait and see [5][92] - Operating range: 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][92] - Logic: Supply side has flat nickel ore prices, increased arrivals last week, and port de - stocking; domestic and Indonesian iron - plant production decreased with nickel - iron inventory accumulation, and domestic refined nickel production decreased with narrowing import losses. Demand side shows decreased production of ternary materials and precursors, decreased stainless - steel plant production, and stable alloy electroplating demand. Inventory side indicates increased pure - nickel social inventory and decreased bonded - area inventory last week. Overall, the fundamentals are loose with high inventory pressure, but the valuation is low, and with repeated interest - rate cut expectations, a weak recovery of nickel prices is expected after the previous decline [5][92] 2. Stainless Steel Investment Strategy - Strategy: Sell on rallies [6][118] - Operating range: 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][118] - Logic: Fundamentally, stainless - steel plant production is decreasing, and terminal demand is weak. Cost - side support is continuously weakening with falling nickel - pig iron prices and flat high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Inventory shows total inventory accumulation and 300 - series inventory accumulation. Overall, weak demand, a loose fundamental pattern, and continuous cost weakening are expected to lead to low - level oscillations of stainless - steel prices [6][118] 3. Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated upward with a weekly increase of 1.99%, trading volume reaching 624,700 lots (+58,900), and open interest reaching 127,300 lots (-33,400). LME nickel increased by 2.53% weekly, with trading volume at 34,400 lots (-8,700) [10] - The basis premium was 1,900 yuan/ton [12] 4. Nickel Supply Side 4.1 Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores were flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was flat [18] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore export volume rebounded, and China's nickel - ore import volume reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [23] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume increased by 122,900 tons week - on - week, and the nickel - ore port inventory decreased by 30,000 wet tons [25] 4.2 Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 7.5 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron was flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel narrowed [31] - In October, China's nickel - iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. The import volume is expected to remain stable in November [35] - BF profit shrank with a decrease in the operating rate, and RKEF losses widened with a decrease in the operating rate [39] - In December, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic and Indonesian nickel pig iron decreased [42] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Nickel - In December, the operating rate of refined nickel increased, and production recovered [48] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [52] - In October, the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [56] 5. Nickel Demand Side 5.1 Stainless Steel - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 5.2 New Energy - The price of pure nickel increased, the price of nickel sulfate decreased, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel narrowed. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [70] - In December, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate decreased, with month - on - month decreases of 7.8%, 6.7%, and 7.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 4.3%, 37.3%, and 19.7% respectively [75][77] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [83] 6. Nickel Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased, and LME nickel inventory increased [84] - Last week, Shanghai bonded - area pure - nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the six - region total social inventory increased by 3,090 tons [88] 7. Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing high - grade nickel matte and MHP externally decreased, while the cost of producing electrolytic nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate externally increased. MHP integrated production of electrolytic nickel has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [91] 8. Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly increase of 0.04%, and the basis shrank to 925 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 699,400 lots (+82,800), and open interest reached 117,400 lots (-53,800) [95] 9. Stainless Steel Cost and Profit - The price of high - nickel pig iron fell, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome was flat, with weakening cost - side support [98] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel decreased, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel increased [103] 10. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - In December, the production schedule of stainless steel and 300 - series stainless steel decreased [61][109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. Exports and imports are expected to decline in November [65][110] 11. Stainless Steel Inventory Side - Domestic stainless - steel social inventory increased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventory increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [116]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For electrolytic nickel, the strategy is to wait and see, with an expected operating range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][5][94] - For stainless steel, the strategy is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][120][121] 2. Core Views - The nickel market has a loose fundamental situation, high inventory, but low valuation. With fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations, nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [5][94] - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, a persistently loose fundamental situation, and weakening cost support. It is expected to remain weak [6][121] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 3.21%. Trading volume reached 566,800 lots (+116,200), and open interest reached 160,700 lots (+48,500). LME nickel fell 1.82% weekly, with trading volume of 43,100 lots (+2,000) [10] - The basis premium was 2,220 yuan/ton [12] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores each dropped by 1 dollar/wet ton, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China decreased by 0.5 dollars/ton [16] - In October, the Philippines' nickel - ore exports rebounded. China's nickel - ore imports reached 4.68 million tons, a 23.4% month - on - month decrease and an 11.0% year - on - year increase [22] - Last week, the nickel - ore arrival volume decreased by 378,000 tons, and port inventory decreased by 250,000 wet tons [24] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 13 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and the premium to scrap stainless steel both narrowed [29] - In October, China's nickel - iron imports were 905,000 tons, a 16.6% month - on - month decrease and a 31.0% year - on - year increase. November imports are expected to remain stable [32] - BF profit contracted, and the operating rate declined. RKEF losses widened, but the operating rate rose [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [40] - Nickel - iron inventory accumulated [42] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [46] - The import loss of electrolytic nickel narrowed [50] - In October, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [54] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [59] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased by 14.4% month - on - month and 14.2% year - on - year, while imports increased by 3.2% month - on - month and decreased by 21.6% year - on - year. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [63] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The decline in pure - nickel prices was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely small [68] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month and increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [73] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [75] - In October, new - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [81] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories decreased [82] - Last week, the pure - nickel inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged, and the total social inventory in six regions decreased by 855 tons [87] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, high - grade nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP integrated production of electrowinning nickel had a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte [93] 2.1 Stainless - Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless - steel futures oscillated at a low level, with a weekly decline of 0.97%. The basis shrank to 1,040 yuan/ton. Trading volume reached 616,600 lots (+126,300), and open interest reached 171,200 lots (+3,500) [97] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost - side support [100] - The profit of 200 - series stainless steel decreased, the loss of 300 - series stainless steel narrowed, and the profit of 400 - series stainless steel decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless - steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of 300 - series stainless steel was basically flat [109] - In October, stainless - steel exports decreased, while imports increased. November's import and export volumes are expected to decline [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic social inventory of stainless steel decreased. 200 - series and 300 - series inventories decreased, while 400 - series inventory increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - The strategy for stainless steel is to sell short on rallies, with an expected operating range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Due to weak demand, a loose fundamental situation, and weakening costs, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [6][120][121]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [4][94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton [5][120] 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supply side shows stable nickel ore prices, decreased arrivals last week, and port inventory reduction. Domestic iron mills' losses have widened, leading to reduced production schedules, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules have increased, and nickel iron inventory has accumulated. Domestic refined nickel production schedules have decreased, and export profits have expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production schedules have increased, while precursor production schedules have decreased. Stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series. Alloy electroplating demand is stable. In terms of inventory, pure nickel social inventory increased last week, while bonded area inventory decreased. Overall, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][94] - Stainless steel: From a fundamental perspective, stainless steel mills' production schedules have decreased, mainly due to reduced production of the 200 series, while the production schedule of the 300 series is basically flat, and the terminal demand for stainless steel is weak. The cost-side support continues to weaken, with nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome prices falling. In terms of inventory, the total inventory has increased, while the 300 series inventory has decreased. Overall, the demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [5][120] 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated downward, with a weekly decline of 0.99%. The trading volume of SHFE nickel decreased to 546,500 lots (-46,200), and the open interest increased to 121,900 lots (+9,400). LME nickel also declined by 1.35% weekly, and its trading volume increased to 37,500 lots (+7,200) [11] - The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained unchanged, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China also remained stable [20] - In September, the export volume of Philippine nickel ore decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [25] - Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased by 415,000 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory of nickel ore decreased by 220,000 wet tons [27] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 8 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron increased by 150 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium of nickel pig iron to scrap stainless steel widened [32] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports reached 1.085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 47.2%. Imports are expected to decline in October [36] - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [44] - Nickel pig iron inventory has accumulated [46] 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel decreased [50] - The export profit of electrolytic nickel has expanded [54] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased, while exports decreased [58] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [63] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [67] 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price decline of pure nickel was greater than that of nickel sulfate, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72] - In November, the production schedule of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and increased by 20.4% year-on-year, while the production schedule of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month-on-month and 39.8% year-on-year [76] - In November, the production schedule of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month-on-month and 23.4% year-on-year [78] - In September, the production of new energy vehicles reached 1.617 million units, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7%. The sales volume reached 1.604 million units, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [84] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory increased [85] - Last week, the bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 200 tons, while the six-region social total inventory increased by 1,029 tons [90] 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowinning nickel by purchasing nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP externally decreased. The cost advantage of producing electrowinning nickel through MHP integration is significantly higher than that through nickel matte integration [93] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of high-nickel pig iron and high-carbon ferrochrome decreased, and the cost-side support weakened [101] - The profit of the 200 series of stainless steel decreased, the loss of the 300 series widened, and the loss of the 400 series decreased [105] 2.3 Fundamental Aspects - In November, stainless steel production schedules decreased, and the production schedule of the 300 series was basically flat [109] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, while imports increased by 2.7% month-on-month and 0.4% year-on-year. Imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [112] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory has increased. The inventory of the 200 series has increased, the 300 series has decreased, and the 400 series has increased [118] 2.5 Market Outlook - Nickel: Hold a wait-and-see stance, with an expected price range of 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure remains high, and the valuation of pure nickel is low. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [94] - Stainless steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The demand is weak, the loose fundamental pattern is difficult to change, and the cost continues to weaken. Therefore, stainless steel is expected to remain weak [120]

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [3] Report Analysts - Wu Jinheng, Research Institute [3] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [4][92] - Stainless Steel: Hold Short Position [5][117] Core Views - Nickel market shows weak supply - demand fundamentals and large inventory pressure, with low valuation, expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] - Stainless steel market has weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, expected to fluctuate weakly [5][118] Summary by Section 1. Nickel 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.14%, trading volume increased to 592,700 lots (+150,500), and open interest decreased to 112,500 lots (-89,000) [9] - LME nickel had a weekly decline of 0.72%, and trading volume increased to 30,300 lots (+32,000) [9] - The basis premium was 1,050 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: Last week, prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and shipping prices from the Philippines to China were unchanged; in September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease and 33.9% YoY increase; last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 391,400 tons, and port inventories decreased by 180,000 wet tons [18][23][25] - **Nickel Pig Iron**: 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 5.5 yuan/nickel point, 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron price fell by 100 yuan/ton; in September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY increase, expected to decline in October; in November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization decreased, while those in Indonesia increased; nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [30][33][41][43] - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In November, refined nickel production and capacity utilization decreased; electrolytic nickel export profit expanded; in September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand Side - **Stainless Steel**: In November, stainless steel production decreased, with 300 - series production remaining basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, imports increased by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [60][106][109] - **New Energy**: Nickel sulfate price remained flat while pure nickel price dropped, and the premium of nickel sulfate over pure nickel expanded; in November, ternary precursor production decreased by 0.1% MoM and increased by 20.4% YoY, ternary material production increased by 1.4% MoM and 39.8% YoY, and nickel sulfate production increased by 4.8% MoM and 23.4% YoY [69][74][76] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased; Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons, and six - region social total inventory decreased by 698 tons [83][88] 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP was significantly lower than that from integrated nickel matte [91] 1.6 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold; Operating range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton; Due to loose fundamentals, large inventory pressure, and low valuation, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] 2. Stainless Steel 2.1 Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.03%, and the basis widened to 850 yuan/ton; trading volume decreased to 574,200 lots (-64,700), and open interest decreased to 82,000 lots (-62,200) [95] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices dropped, weakening cost support; 200 - series profit increased, 300 - series loss widened, and 400 - series loss narrowed [98][102] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to 200 - series production cuts, and 300 - series production remained basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased and imports increased, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [106][109] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased; 200 - series and 300 - series inventories increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [115] 2.5 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold short position; Operating range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton; Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][117][118]

Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [5][95] - Stainless Steel: Sell on rallies [6][121] Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals are loose, with large inventory pressure and reduced market risk appetite. However, the nickel valuation is low. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation and loose cost support. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly [6][121]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 0.49% weekly after surging and then falling. The trading volume reached 289,900 lots (+65,000), and the open interest reached 77,800 lots (+1,700). LME nickel fell 1.41% weekly, and the trading volume was 41,000 lots (+14,800) [11]. - The basis premium was 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21]. - In August, the nickel ore export volume from the Philippines increased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.35 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [26]. - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume increased by 180,300 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory increased by 670,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 3 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [32]. - In August, China's nickel pig iron imports were 874,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 67.4%. The import volume is expected to increase slightly in September [35]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate increased; RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [39]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [43]. - Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [45]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [49]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded [53]. - In August, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [57]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [63][110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [67][113]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel expanded. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month-on-month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% and year-on-year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively [77][79]. - In August, the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 11.9% and 10.5% and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. The Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 2,866 tons [86][91]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of preparing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. The cost advantage of MHP integrated preparation of electrowinning nickel over nickel matte integrated preparation is obvious [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Hold - Operating Range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The supply side shows flat nickel ore prices, increased arrival volume, and port inventory accumulation; domestic iron mills' losses widen, production schedules decrease, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules increase, and nickel pig iron inventory accumulates; domestic refined nickel production schedules increase, and export profits expand. The demand side shows increased production schedules of ternary materials and precursors, increased stainless steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy electroplating demand. The inventory side shows increased pure nickel social inventory and flat bonded area inventory [5][95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated within a range, falling 0.04% weekly. The basis widened to 1,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 159,300 lots (-132,100), and the open interest was 53,400 lots (+14,400) [99]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome fell, and the cost support weakened [102]. - The 200 - series stainless steel turned from profit to loss, the 300 - series losses widened, and the 400 - series losses narrowed [106]. 2.3 Fundamentals - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [113]. 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic stainless steel social inventory accumulated, and the inventories of the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series all increased [119]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies - Operating Range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The fundamentals show increased stainless steel mill production schedules, decreased 300 - series production schedules, and weak terminal demand. The cost support is loose, and the inventory accumulates [6][121].

Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250922: Low-level Fluctuation [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On September 19, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened low and moved high, with the LME nickel falling 0.01%. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. With a weak fundamental situation and inventory pressure after the Fed's interest rate cut, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short on rallies [doc id not provided]. - Stainless Steel: On September 19, the stainless steel main contract fluctuated at a low level, and the spot market trading was weak, with the basis premium narrowing. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [doc id not provided]. Group 3: Market Data Summary Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: For Shanghai nickel futures on September 19, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 121,500 yuan/ton, 121,920 yuan/ton, 121,340 yuan/ton, and 122,160 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 560 yuan, 620 yuan, 580 yuan, and 680 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel active contract was 62,653 lots (-18,959), and the open interest was 50,421 lots (-4,623) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, the LME inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [doc id not provided]. - **LME Data**: The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15,320 US dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,270 US dollars, and the trading volume was - 1,108 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of the stainless steel near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts on September 19 were 12,725 yuan/ton, 12,860 yuan/ton, 12,910 yuan/ton, and 12,980 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 40 yuan, - 15 yuan, - 15 yuan, and - 10 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the stainless steel active contract was 116,925 lots (-58,909), and the open interest was 131,185 lots (-1,043) [2]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 593,400 tons (-2,900) [doc id not provided]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, the arrival of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventory accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed, with increased domestic production in September and increased production in Indonesia, and nickel - iron inventory decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profitability expanded [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [doc id not provided]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production increased in September [doc id not provided]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [doc id not provided]. Group 5: Cost Analysis - For stainless steel, the price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [doc id not provided]. Group 6: Industry News - LME is making important adjustments to its Class 5 membership system to simplify and strengthen the brand registration process. From February 20, 2026, only approved brand registration service providers will be eligible to submit metal brand registration applications to INE, making the process for metal producers to become LME - recognized delivery brands more transparent and efficient. Class 1 to Class 4 members can still assist with brand applications as usual, and the current process remains unchanged [doc id not provided].