Report Overview - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Report Date: October 14, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [5][95] - Stainless Steel: Sell on rallies [6][121] Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals are loose, with large inventory pressure and reduced market risk appetite. However, the nickel valuation is low. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [5][95]. - Stainless Steel: The fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation and loose cost support. It is expected that stainless steel will fluctuate weakly [6][121]. Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel rose 0.49% weekly after surging and then falling. The trading volume reached 289,900 lots (+65,000), and the open interest reached 77,800 lots (+1,700). LME nickel fell 1.41% weekly, and the trading volume was 41,000 lots (+14,800) [11]. - The basis premium was 1,040 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ore remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21]. - In August, the nickel ore export volume from the Philippines increased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.35 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.8% and a year-on-year increase of 28.7% [26]. - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume increased by 180,300 tons month-on-month, and the port inventory increased by 670,000 wet tons [28]. 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 3 yuan/nickel point, and the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 50 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel and scrap stainless steel widened [32]. - In August, China's nickel pig iron imports were 874,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 67.4%. The import volume is expected to increase slightly in September [35]. - BF profit contracted, but the operating rate increased; RKEF losses widened, and the operating rate decreased [39]. - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of domestic nickel pig iron decreased, while those of Indonesian nickel pig iron increased [43]. - Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [45]. 1.2 Supply Side - Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the operating rate and production schedule of refined nickel increased [49]. - The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded [53]. - In August, both the import and export volumes of electrolytic nickel decreased [57]. 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [63][110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [67][113]. 1.3 Demand Side - New Energy - The price of pure nickel fell, the price of nickel sulfate rose, and the premium of nickel sulfate to pure nickel expanded. The proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate is extremely small [72]. - In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month-on-month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% and year-on-year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively [77][79]. - In August, the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles were 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 11.9% and 10.5% and year-on-year increases of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively [85]. 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, the SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. The Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social total inventory increased by 2,866 tons [86][91]. 1.5 Electrowinning Nickel Cost - The cost of preparing electrowinning nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP increased. The cost advantage of MHP integrated preparation of electrowinning nickel over nickel matte integrated preparation is obvious [94]. 1.5 Market Outlook - Nickel - Strategy: Hold - Operating Range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The supply side shows flat nickel ore prices, increased arrival volume, and port inventory accumulation; domestic iron mills' losses widen, production schedules decrease, while Indonesian iron mills' production schedules increase, and nickel pig iron inventory accumulates; domestic refined nickel production schedules increase, and export profits expand. The demand side shows increased production schedules of ternary materials and precursors, increased stainless steel mill production schedules, and stable alloy electroplating demand. The inventory side shows increased pure nickel social inventory and flat bonded area inventory [5][95]. 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures fluctuated within a range, falling 0.04% weekly. The basis widened to 1,110 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 159,300 lots (-132,100), and the open interest was 53,400 lots (+14,400) [99]. 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome fell, and the cost support weakened [102]. - The 200 - series stainless steel turned from profit to loss, the 300 - series losses widened, and the 400 - series losses narrowed [106]. 2.3 Fundamentals - In October, the stainless steel production schedule increased, but the 300 - series production schedule decreased [110]. - In August, the stainless steel export volume increased by 7.6% month-on-month and decreased by 8.2% year-on-year; the import volume increased by 60.5% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year. The import and export volumes are expected to decline in September [113]. 2.4 Inventory Side - The domestic stainless steel social inventory accumulated, and the inventories of the 200 - series, 300 - series, and 400 - series all increased [119]. 2.5 Market Outlook - Stainless Steel - Strategy: Sell on rallies - Operating Range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton - Logic: The fundamentals show increased stainless steel mill production schedules, decreased 300 - series production schedules, and weak terminal demand. The cost support is loose, and the inventory accumulates [6][121].

Price Trends - As of June 19, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 12,700 CNY/ton, and in Foshan, it is 12,800 CNY/ton, both remaining stable day-on-day [1] - The base price has decreased by 50 CNY/ton to 295 CNY/ton [1] Raw Material Insights - The weather impact in the Philippines has lessened, leading to improved shipping efficiency, with 1.3% nickel ore trading at FOB 36 and CIF 45 to Indonesia [1] - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to drop by 0.3-0.5 USD in June [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are declining, with a procurement price of 940 CNY/nickel (including tax) reported by a steel mill in South China [1] Supply and Production Data - In June, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3623 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.7912 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1] Inventory Levels - As of June 20, social inventory of the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 534,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 114,869 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,116 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market has seen a slight increase in prices, but overall trading remains cautious with no significant improvement in transactions [3] - The macroeconomic environment is stable, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% [3] - The supply side remains high, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase 300 series production while reducing 400 series output [3] Demand and Seasonal Trends - Overall demand is weak, with manufacturing orders recovering slowly, leading to procurement primarily based on immediate needs [3] - The stainless steel market is entering a seasonal destocking phase, but the pace of inventory reduction has been slow this year [3] Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a reference range for the main contract set between 12,400 and 13,000 CNY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a slight weakening, with a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream processing enterprises, primarily driven by basic demand [3] Pricing and Raw Materials - As of June 9, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,000 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 13,050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price of nickel ore from the Philippines is stable, with a transaction price of around FOB 36 for 1.3% nickel ore, while Indonesian nickel ore's domestic benchmark price has decreased by approximately $0.02 [1] - Nickel iron prices are stable, with mainstream steel mills purchasing high nickel iron at 970 yuan/nickel (including tax) [1][3] - Ferrochrome prices are fluctuating slightly, with low pricing appearing frequently due to strong selling intentions from traders [1][3] Supply and Production - In June, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3623 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.91% but a year-on-year increase of 2.24% [1] - The production of the 300 series is 1.7912 million tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 8.35% [1] - The overall supply remains high, with some steel mills expected to slightly increase 300 series production while reducing 400 series output [3] Inventory and Demand - Social inventory data shows a recent decline, with a total of 520,200 tons in Wuxi and Foshan, an increase of 9,300 tons week-on-week [2] - As of June 9, stainless steel futures inventory is 121,663 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,327 tons [2] - Demand is gradually recovering but remains slow, with manufacturing orders improving at a sluggish pace [3] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a reference range for the main contract set between 12,600 and 13,200 [4]